By the Numbers: Kansas vs. UNLV

The Runnin' Rebels of UNLV stand in the way of Kansas and a second consecutive Sweet Sixteen visit. Can the Rebels slow down the heavily-favored Jayhawks? Let's take a look at the numbers that shape this matchup.

 

 

Kansas

UNLV

Performance Indicators

 

 

Record

32-3

27-7

AP Rank

4

NR

Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)

1

50

Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)

3

38

Prediction Models

 

 

Vegas Oddsmakers

Win by 13
Est. Projection: 75-62

 

Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)

Win by 13.6

 

Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 78-61
94% chance of victory

 

Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)

Win by 12.7
98.4% chance of victory

 

 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

For information on these ratings, click here.

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYER

ePSAN70

ePSAN

Mario Chalmers

7.21

180.22

Darnell Jackson

6.58

138.28

Brennan Bechard*

5.65

2.14

Darrell Arthur

5.50

113.53

Cole Aldrich

5.36

38.63

Tyrel Reed*

5.25

13.50

Brandon Rush

5.01

126.74

Sasha Kaun

4.47

67.50

Russell Robinson

4.45

105.86

Jeremy Case*

4.10

11.04

Rodrick Stewart

3.99

30.33

Sherron Collins

3.88

70.88

Matt Kleinmann*

3.55

3.17

Conner Teahan*

3.19

4.05

Chase Buford*

-3.50

-1.36

Brad Witherspoon*

-5.87

-3.13

 * Rating not based on enough data.

UNLV

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYER

cPSAN70

cPSAN

Rene Rougeau

5.30

112.03

Troy Cage*

4.77

7.79

Wink Adams

3.17

77.90

Matt Shaw

2.92

43.03

Joe Darger

2.82

58.39

Curtis Terry

2.20

54.20

Mareceo Rutledge

1.21

9.94

Corey Bailey

1.00

19.02

Marcus Lawrence

0.63

4.66

Kendall Wallace

-2.96

-19.97

Scott Hoffman*

-4.61

-4.41

 * Rating not based on enough data.

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Offense #1 - Defense #4 - Tempo #104
Usually win the all-important eFG% category (#4 own, #16 defense)
Rank #45 in avoiding own TO
Strong offensive rebounding (#19) and limit opp OREB% (#31)
Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#4)
Great shooting from both 2FG (#7) and 3FG (#9)
Dominate the BLK category (#8 limit own, #3 block opp)
Rank #15 in STL% from opp
Very few 3FGA as % of FGA (#285), but opp take a lot (#284 limit opp 3FGA)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#34)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 16)

Mario Chalmers - #22 eFG%, #172 AST rate, #17 STL%
Russell Robinson - #113 FT Rate, #48 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #105 OREB%, #112 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #23 eFG%, #136 DREB%, #166 FT Rate
Sasha Kaun - #178 OREB%, #49 BLK%

UNLV

Offense #61 - Defense #50 - Tempo #219
Excellent eFG% defense (#27), esp 3FG% defense (#10)
Rarely turn ball over (#7)
Poor OREB% (#270)
Terrific FT% (#26)
Amazing at avoiding STL (#3) and solid at getting them (#47)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Mar 16)

Curtis Terry - #76 AST Rate
Wink Adams - #107 TO Rate
Rene Rougeau - #121 TO Rate, #22 STL%
Joe Darger - #5 TO Rate
Matt Shaw - #82 TO Rate

Scoring Distribution:

On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, UNLV more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's, while its opponents are fairly balanced.

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category

Clear Advantage for Kansas

UNLV OREB**

UNLV eFG%**

UNLV 2pt FG%**

Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**

UNLV FT Rate

Kansas OREB**

UNLV 3pt FG%

UNLV % own 2FGA's blocked**

Clear Advantage for UNLV

UNLV FT%**

************************************************************* 

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

UNLV will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Expect average-paced game

Bottom Line

UNLV will need its biggest strengths to come through in a big way. That is, they must avoid turnovers like the plague, and they have to force Kansas into taking bad shots with a low eFG%. If either of those two pillars is less than stellar, the Rebels really won’t have a leg to stand on. Meanwhile, if Kansas shows up with its “A” game, it really won’t matter what UNLV does. The Jayhawks have a complete inside and outside game that can hurt opponents from every spot on the floor, in a halfcourt or fast-paced game and against any kind of defense.


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