By the Numbers: Kansas at Iowa State

Kansas tries to make it five consecutive victories at Hilton Coliseum while maintaining its perfect conference record. Here's what the numbers say about today's matchup.

 

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games.  The red bar represents each team's current Sagarin Predictor rating, which represents overall team strength.  The "Performance" is calculated by taking the opponent's Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game.  Homecourt advantage is also factored into the equation.

 

In this analysis, Kansas has severely underperformed its season average by about 8.7 points.  With the exception of the Colorado game, the Jayhawks have performed well below their season average in the last five non-home games.  One encouraging note is that their last three games have trended upward, with Colorado being their best performance away from home this season.

 

In contrast, the Cylones have performed better than their season average at home, by approximately 2.1 points.  Still, they have been very inconsistent, with two poor performances in the last five.  In particular, a loss to South Dakota State is probably their worst game of the season.  On the other hand, twice they have performed at levels above KU's season average, which means they definitely have the ability to knock off the Jayhawks today.

 

In fact, over the last five games for each team, Kansas has performed 1.7 points better than Iowa State.  With a 4-point homecourt edge though, this specific analysis projects a close Iowa State upset by 2.9 points.

 

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for Iowa State:

 

Iowa St.

Opp

Advantage

 

eFG%

50.91%

43.71%

145.9

 

TO Rate

18.52%

17.59%

-10.7

 

OREB%

24.54%

27.30%

-17.1

 

FT Rate

19.31%

18.73%

3.3

FT Pct

 

 

 

-8.3

FT Attempts

ANALYSIS:  If not for their ability to hold down opponents' eFG%, the Cyclones would not have a winning record, most likely.  In particular, the OREB% category is their biggest deficiency, since the value of that is typically less than for turnovers in terms of translating to scoring advantage.

 

Kansas Player Ratings on the Road

KU's performance has been significantly different away from the confines of Allen Fieldhouse this season.  Here, we will attempt to measure which players are doing significantly better or worse depending on the location.

 

(for explanation of ratings, go to sportsandnumbers.com under "FAQ & Terms")

PSAN70 is a measure of efficiency.  It is broken up into PSAN70-O (offensive), PSAN70-D (defensive) and combined for the composite (PSAN70-Comp).  Note that for defensive ratings, negative numbers are better.

Games Played in Allen Fieldhouse

PLAYER

PSAN70-O

PSAN70-D

PSAN70-Comp

Cole Aldrich

6.64

-4.16

10.80

Mario Little

8.08

-1.06

9.14

Travis Releford

1.60

-3.16

4.77

Marcus Morris

0.87

-3.67

4.55

Brady Morningstar

2.86

-1.45

4.31

Markieff Morris

2.26

-1.71

3.97

Tyshawn Taylor

1.95

-1.58

3.53

Sherron Collins

1.82

-1.10

2.91

Tyrel Reed

1.99

-0.73

2.72

 

Games Not Played in Allen Fieldhouse

PLAYER

PSAN70-O

PSAN70-D

PSAN70-Comp

Cole Aldrich

3.41

-4.55

7.96

Marcus Morris

2.88

-0.36

3.24

Sherron Collins

1.81

-0.48

2.30

Tyrel Reed

0.91

-0.50

1.41

Brady Morningstar

0.54

-0.61

1.15

Markieff Morris

-0.69

-1.56

0.86

Tyshawn Taylor

0.50

0.02

0.49

Mario Little*

-1.75

2.51

-4.26

Travis Releford*

-2.92

2.16

-5.08

 

Ratings of Non-AFH Games vs AFH Games

PLAYER

PSAN70-O

PSAN70-D

PSAN70-Comp

Sherron Collins

0.00

0.62

-0.62

Marcus Morris

2.01

3.32

-1.31

Tyrel Reed

-1.08

0.23

-1.31

Cole Aldrich

-3.23

-0.39

-2.84

Tyshawn Taylor

-1.44

1.60

-3.04

Markieff Morris

-2.95

0.16

-3.11

Brady Morningstar

-2.32

0.84

-3.16

Travis Releford*

-4.53

5.32

-9.85

Mario Little*

-9.83

3.57

-13.39

 

All the players have worse ratings away from the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse.  But it would seem that the highest profile player, Sherron Collins, has limited his dropoff the most.  Releford and Little don't have enough minutes in both locations to make this analysis significant.  But the most significant efficiency differential belongs to Brady Morningstar.

 

The key thing that many might miss, however, is the importance of Cole Aldrich's play.  True, he has the highest efficiency both at home and away from home.  However, if you look at his impact ratings (efficiency is impact-per-70 possessions), Aldrich actually has the highest dropoff away from home, and it's not even close.  So, even though he has played exceptionally well regardless of location, Aldrich's reduced effectiveness is one of the biggest contributors to KU's road woes this season. 

Sagarin ratings source: USAToday.com


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