By the Numbers: Kansas at Kansas State

After a heartbreaking loss to their rivals a short drive east, Kansas hopes a Valentine's Day visit to their rivals a short drive west will be kinder. It won't be easy, as the Wildcats are on a six-game winning streak. Let's see what the numbers say about the matchup.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games.  The red bar represents each team's current Sagarin Predictor rating, which represents overall team strength.  The "Performance" is calculated by taking the opponent's Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game.  Homecourt advantage is also factored into the equation.

 

In this analysis, Kansas has done quite well of late, outperforming its season average by about 4.9 points.  Despite a shaky start on the road this season, the youthful Jayhawks have been remarkably steady in their performance away from home.  In fact, they have outperformed their season average rating in all of their last five road games.  Not only that, but also KU has performed above the expected KSU performance level for this game in every one of those five road games.  In all, this looks very promising for the Jayhawks.

 

Meanwhile, the Wildcats have underperformed versus their season average at home, by approximately 2.3 points.  Most of that stems from two very poor performances against Oklahoma and Baylor.  Those are also the games that are most distant, so one could make the case that K-State is performing much closer to their season average more recently.  Still, if they were to manage their season average, we know that KU is performing at an even higher level.

 

In summary, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has performed 10.8 points better than K-State.  Even though season average Sagarin ratings would suggest a 0.9-point edge for the Wildcats, this specific analysis of the last five games gives the Jayhawks just over a 7-point advantage.

 

Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(For explanation of ratings, go to sportsandnumbers.com under "FAQ & Terms." They use possession-based principles and measure either total impact or efficiency.  These are further broken down into offensive and defensive ratings.  For defensive ratings, negative is better.  As a point of reference, a rating of zero is equal to the average NCAA player. ePSAN and ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but PSAN and PSAN70 weighs all games equally.  "O" on end = offense, "D"= defense, "Comp"= composite)

 

Kansas

ePSAN ("Total Impact") 

PLAYER

ePSAN-O

ePSAN-D

ePSAN-Comp

Cole Aldrich

67.98

-81.68

149.66

Brady Morningstar

29.55

-26.25

55.79

Sherron Collins

19.34

-23.03

42.36

Tyrel Reed

28.87

-13.13

42.01

Marcus Morris

12.66

-24.71

37.36

Tyshawn Taylor

16.76

-16.16

32.92

Mario Little

22.78

-5.28

28.06

Markieff Morris

11.04

-16.54

27.58

Travis Releford*

5.58

-6.65

12.23

Quintrell Thomas*

1.75

-4.21

5.96

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)

PLAYER

ePSAN70-O

ePSAN70-D

ePSAN70-Comp

Cole Aldrich

3.81

-4.58

8.38

Mario Little

4.06

-0.94

5.01

Marcus Morris

1.24

-2.42

3.65

Tyrel Reed

2.25

-1.02

3.27

Markieff Morris

1.23

-1.85

3.08

Travis Releford*

1.38

-1.64

3.02

Brady Morningstar

1.58

-1.41

2.99

Quintrell Thomas*

0.72

-1.72

2.44

Tyshawn Taylor

1.09

-1.05

2.13

Sherron Collins

0.93

-1.11

2.04

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Kansas State

PSAN ("Total Impact")  

PLAYER

PSAN-O

PSAN-D

PSAN-Comp

Jamar Samuels

33.22

-19.60

52.82

Ron Anderson

16.76

-27.59

44.36

Dominique Sutton

14.59

-28.37

42.95

Darren Kent

17.19

-22.47

39.66

Luis Colon

19.61

-10.36

29.97

Denis Clemente

22.48

-3.95

26.43

Fred Brown

21.27

-4.72

25.99

Jacob Pullen

-4.50

-23.03

18.53

Buchi Awaji*

11.20

-6.09

17.29

Chris Merriewether*

2.27

-4.02

6.30

Victor Ojeleye*

-1.62

-3.60

1.98

Justin Werner*

-3.18

-2.71

-0.47

 PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)

PLAYER

PSAN70-O

PSAN70-D

PSAN70-Comp

Buchi Awaji*

2.92

-1.58

4.50

Jamar Samuels

2.80

-1.65

4.45

Ron Anderson

1.53

-2.52

4.05

Dominique Sutton

1.10

-2.13

3.23

Darren Kent

1.33

-1.74

3.07

Luis Colon

1.67

-0.88

2.55

Fred Brown

1.74

-0.39

2.12

Denis Clemente

1.42

-0.25

1.67

Victor Ojeleye*

-1.27

-2.81

1.55

Chris Merriewether*

0.41

-0.72

1.13

Jacob Pullen

-0.26

-1.31

1.05

Justin Werner*

-1.75

-1.49

-0.26

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

 

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for Kansas State:

 

K-State

Opp

Advantage

 

eFG%

49.83%

46.53%

89.2

 

TO Rate

19.85%

25.23%

91.9

 

OREB%

41.79%

31.18%

94.4

 

FT Rate

26.35%

33.47%

-31.0

FT Pct

 

 

 

2.0

FT Attempts

 

Analysis: Things could be even better for the Wildcats if only they shot free throws at least as well as their opponents did.  There are healthy advantages in the two most important categories for most teams, eFG% and turnovers.  Yet, the single biggest advantage for KSU has been their prowess on the offensive glass.  That is the one offensive category in which they outperform their opponent and rank high from a national perspective (3rd in nation).

Sagarin ratings source: USAToday.com


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