By the Numbers: Nebraska at Kansas

The Jayhawks look to take care of business at home against the Cornhuskers before their big showdown against Oklahoma. Just how easy will it be for Kansas to push the home winning streak to 40 games? Let's see what the numbers say.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. The red bars represent each team's current Sagarin Predictor rating, which represents overall team strength. The "Performance" is calculated by taking the opponent's Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Homecourt advantage is also factored into the equation. The black line represents the linear trend over the last five games for the team. If slanted upwards, it means the team has generally been playing better each game.

 

In this analysis, Kansas has been right around where it was expected to be, barely outperforming its season average by about 0.5 points. The one data point that is really keeping KU's recent home performances from averaging out much higher is an unexpectedly close game against Colorado, which the Jayhawks won by only five points. Otherwise, KU has performed better than its season average in the other four most recent home games. Still, the general trend is pointed downwards, giving Husker fans some hope that maybe KU will not have a great outing. That one poor game against CU was the only time that Kansas performed at a level below that of Nebraska's expected performance level today.

 

Nebraska has underperformed versus their season average by approximately 2.8 points. Two of their five games are just miserable outings, the first against Iowa State the most recent against Missouri (70-47 loss). But in between, they played three decent games, including their best against Texas Tech. But the bottom line here is that only once did NU play at a level anywhere near that expected for KU in today's game. One encouraging note is that NU's trend line is still positive over the last five games, opposite of KU's.

 

In summary, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has performed 11.3 points better than Nebraska. Even though season average Sagarin ratings would suggest a 11.7-point edge for the Jayhawks, this specific analysis of the last five games gives the Jayhawks an even higher 15-point edge.

 

Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

(For explanation of ratings, go to sportsandnumbers.com under "FAQ & Terms." They use possession-based principles and measure either total impact or efficiency. These are further broken down into offensive and defensive ratings. For defensive ratings, negative is better. As a point of reference, a rating of zero is equal to the average NCAA player. ePSAN and ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but PSAN and PSAN70 weighs all games equally. "O" on end = offense, "D"= defense, "Comp"= composite)

 

Kansas

ePSAN ("Total Impact") 

PLAYER

ePSAN-O

ePSAN-D

ePSAN-Comp

Cole Aldrich

79.16

-86.70

165.86

Brady Morningstar

36.52

-31.83

68.35

Sherron Collins

32.29

-21.97

54.26

Marcus Morris

19.39

-31.11

50.50

Tyrel Reed

24.25

-12.52

36.78

Tyshawn Taylor

18.62

-14.24

32.86

Mario Little

24.83

-5.83

30.66

Markieff Morris

8.98

-18.10

27.08

Travis Releford*

2.37

-6.82

9.19

Quintrell Thomas*

2.31

-3.97

6.28

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)

PLAYER

ePSAN70-O

ePSAN70-D

ePSAN70-Comp

Cole Aldrich

4.07

-4.46

8.53

Mario Little

4.18

-0.98

5.16

Marcus Morris

1.63

-2.62

4.25

Brady Morningstar

1.80

-1.57

3.36

Markieff Morris

0.96

-1.94

2.90

Tyrel Reed

1.74

-0.90

2.63

Quintrell Thomas*

0.95

-1.63

2.58

Sherron Collins

1.42

-0.97

2.39

Travis Releford*

0.56

-1.61

2.16

Tyshawn Taylor

1.15

-0.88

2.03

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Nebraska

PSAN ("Total Impact")  

PLAYER

PSAN-O

PSAN-D

PSAN-Comp

Ade Dagunduro

34.43

-23.01

57.44

Ryan Anderson

-2.52

-29.79

27.27

Sek Henry

7.43

-18.22

25.65

Paul Velander

19.75

0.46

19.29

Cookie Miller

-3.04

-22.21

19.18

Brandon Richardson

3.09

-11.51

14.60

Toney McCray

-12.92

-26.93

14.01

Steve Harley

-26.95

-38.87

11.93

Chris Balham

2.46

0.62

1.84

 PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)

PLAYER

PSAN70-O

PSAN70-D

PSAN70-Comp

Ade Dagunduro

2.58

-1.72

4.30

Brandon Richardson

0.47

-1.74

2.21

Ryan Anderson

-0.20

-2.37

2.17

Sek Henry

0.54

-1.32

1.86

Toney McCray

-1.55

-3.23

1.68

Paul Velander

1.52

0.04

1.49

Cookie Miller

-0.21

-1.51

1.30

Steve Harley

-1.63

-2.35

0.72

Chris Balham

0.51

0.13

0.38

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

 

Opponent Four Factor Analysis

Based on the cumulative season boxscore for the opponent, we can look at the Four Factors to see where the team has derived the bulk of its (dis)advantage in terms of scoring margin versus its opponents to date.  Here is the breakdown for Nebraska:

 

Nebraska

Opp

Advantage

 

eFG%

50.99%

48.11%

67.7

 

TO Rate

18.54%

27.91%

138.3

 

OREB%

24.57%

31.21%

-48.3

 

FT Rate

26.61%

26.76%

-11.8

FT Pct

 

 

 

29.8

FT Attempts

 

Analysis: The bulk of Nebraska's ability to win games has come from their remarkable turnover differential. They do a phenomenal job of forcing turnovers (2nd in the nation) while minimizing their own (48th in nation). One reason they are not in contention for the conference is their anemic offensive rebounding, which is the 7th worst in the nation. They have managed to overcome the rebounding issues with slightly better overall shooting, however.

Sagarin ratings source: USAToday.com


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