KSR Members Predict 7-5 record for UK

Almost two months ago we asked Kentucky Sports Report members to take a game-by-game look at the Wildcat football team. Each game was carefully scrutinized and a score predicted, along with a "degree of confidence" of a UK win for each game. Here are the results.

Although individually, the KSR gang predicted it was more likely than not that Kentucky would win 8 times out of the 12 games, applying the statistical probability to each predicted outcome, it was almost a perfect 7 win prediction.

Cumulative KSR members predictions are as follows:
1-Western Kentucky -- 96% chance of a Kentucky win.
2-Central Mich -- 85% chance of a Kentucky win.
3-Louisville -- 73% chance of a Kentucky win.
4-Florida -- 22% chance of a Kentucky win.
5-LSU -- 26% chance of a Kentucky win.
6-S Carolina -- 24% chance of a Kentucky win.
7-Jacksonville -- 75% chance of a Kentucky win.
8-Miss. State -- 54% chance of a Kentucky win.
9-Ole Miss -- 69% chance of a Kentucky win.
10-Vandy -- 80% chance of a Kentucky win.
11-Georgia -- 35% chance of a Kentucky win.
12-Tennessee -- 58% chance of a Kentucky win.

That's an average of 58.1%, combining all 12 projections. Mutiplying .581 x 12 = 6.972 wins.

So the KSR gang is predicting a 7-5 record for the regular season. That's true, even though individually, in 8 of the 12 games, UK is predicted to be more likely than not to win (two very close calls).

A couple of other notes.

The KSR gang sees the Kentucky defense as being very strong this year, allowing an average of only 23 points per game, which would be the best Wildcat defense in years.

It's a good thing, because the KSR gang also sees this Wildcat offense as not being ultra-productive, averaging only 27 points per contest.

From easiest opponent/most likely to win, to hardest opponent/least likely to win:

Western Kentucky
Central Michigan
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
South Carolina

The first eight listed there are all predicted--a couple very close--to be Wildcat wins. The last four are all predicted to be Wildcat losses.

Predicted SEC record this year is from 3 to 4 wins, and 4 to 5 losses. Depends on how you interpret the data.

Biggest blowout win for the Cats this year should be the home opener, KSR gang says, a 28-point blowout. Better run to your bookmaker, because the Cats are only a 19-point favorite in the game next week.

Biggest blowout loss predicted for the Cats this year is the game against Florida, in which the KSR gang predicts a 15-point Florida Gator victory. That's the only game in which a double-digit loss was predicted, with the group apparently putting a lot of stock in the defense being able to keep scores down, and the team closer, even in losses.

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