KSR premium guru dlh331 looks at UK-UL

Longtime KSR member dlh331, aka Darryl, takes a position by position look at the Kentucky v Louisville matchup. Some of the matchups may surprise you, but as always, he does a great job of analysis before reaching his conclusions. Here's his WildcatChat post analyzing the game.

  • Center: Dieng 6-11 and 235 vs Davis 6-10 and 220. Dieng averages 10.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, and blocks 3 shots a game. Davis averages 11.8 ppg, 10 rpg and blocks 4.5 shots a game.

    I think this is much closer than most UK fans seem to think. Later on, it would be close to a mismatch.

    Right now, slight push to UK

  • PF: Behanan 6-6 and 250 vs Jones 6-9 and 252. Behanan averages 8.8 ppg and 8 rpg. Jones averages 12.4 ppg and 6 rpg

    If Jones is healthy, not really close. Jones is still a top 10 player in the nation. Behanan is good.

  • SF: Kuric 6-4 and 195 vs Kidd-Gilchrist 6-7 and 232. Kuric averages 13.3 ppg and 4.5 rpg. KG averages 13.1 ppg and 7 rpg.

    I like Kuric, but this is a total mismatch. KG can guard nearly anyone in the country. Kuric has trouble guarding his shadow.

  • PG: Siva 6-0 and 180 (difficult to measure because he is so fast) vs Teague 6-2 and 190. Siva averages 9 ppg and 6.4 apg Shoots 33% FG and 22% from 3. Teague averages 10.9 ppg and 4.5 apg. Shoots 44% FG and 33% from 3.

    Even

  • SG: Chris Smith 6-2 and 195 vs Lamb 6-4 and 210. Smith 10.4 ppg and 3.4 rpg. Shoots 40% from 3, 77% FT. Lamb 16.1 ppg and 4 rpg. Shoots better everywhere, 50% on 3s, 84% FT, 50% FG.

    Total mismatch. Lamb may be the best 2 guard in the nation.

  • Bench: UK is better with Miller, Wiltjer, and Vargas vs Buckles, Russ Smith and Swopshire. Despite UL fans acting like they are incredibly deep, Pitino is really playing only 8 guys.

    Louisville loves to press at home because they can handcheck, grab, tackle players. Pitino's press has ALWAYS been successful in making the opponent pass to players than cannot handle the ball. UK is one of the least "pressable" teams I have ever seen. Pitino won't press UK. If he does this will be very ugly early, middle, and late.

    UL almost certainly will play a 2-3 zone (although it looked like they had 1-3-1 versus Western at times) If Lamb, Wiltjer, and Miller are not hitting,the game could get tight.

    UK is much bigger, deeper, way more talented, and just as motivated. Despite people saying rivalry games are hard to predict, the favorite in this game wins much more often (I read the favorite wins the Auburn/Bama football game 86% of the time).

    If UK is hitting from 3, I think the score will be in the 85-65 range, UK on top. Maybe worse. If a cold day from outside UK 74-65.

    Darryl

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