I think this is much closer than most UK fans seem to think. Later on, it would be close to a mismatch.
Right now, slight push to UK
If Jones is healthy, not really close. Jones is still a top 10 player in the nation. Behanan is good.
I like Kuric, but this is a total mismatch. KG can guard nearly anyone in the country. Kuric has trouble guarding his shadow.
Total mismatch. Lamb may be the best 2 guard in the nation.
Louisville loves to press at home because they can handcheck, grab, tackle players. Pitino's press has ALWAYS been successful in making the opponent pass to players than cannot handle the ball. UK is one of the least "pressable" teams I have ever seen. Pitino won't press UK. If he does this will be very ugly early, middle, and late.
UL almost certainly will play a 2-3 zone (although it looked like they had 1-3-1 versus Western at times) If Lamb, Wiltjer, and Miller are not hitting,the game could get tight.
UK is much bigger, deeper, way more talented, and just as motivated. Despite people saying rivalry games are hard to predict, the favorite in this game wins much more often (I read the favorite wins the Auburn/Bama football game 86% of the time).
If UK is hitting from 3, I think the score will be in the 85-65 range, UK on top. Maybe worse. If a cold day from outside UK 74-65.