Q&A With BCS Expert Jerry Palm

Jerry Palm has turned what was a hobby into a full time business and he is considered the premier expert in all things BCS. Mr. Palm was kind enough to spend a few minutes answering my questions in regards to the BCS and where Miami fits into the BD picture in his educated opinion. What follows is our question and answer session that we conducted last evening.

There is one man in the world of the BCS that every major network analyst and radio or print guru of college football turn to when trying to figure out who is in control of their own destiny, what would have to happen in order for a given team to make it to the title game how teams can be a consensus -- damn near unanimous number one in both the coaches and the media poll and yet ranked no higher than number four and change in the computer polls, how quality points can influence who makes the title game, and just about every and any other question that you could have at this point. That man is Jerry Palm.

SM:1] If the Irish beat FSU this weekend and go on to finish undefeated, even with the Canes having quality opponents left in Tennessee and Virginia Tech, and even with the Irish having creampuffs Navy and Rutgers let on their schedule, do you see it possible that the Irish are likely to leapfrog Miami for the number two slot if both teams win out and Oklahoma wins out as well? And if so, would that be because the SOS is so much different between the schedules of Miami and ND. It would come down to a few decimal points either way, with two of the teams still on ND's schedule teams that Miami have already played and two teams on Miami's schedule who ND have already played. With that being the case, do you think that Miami would stay ahead by a few decimal points and if so, how certain would you say you are about that.
JP] It's possible that ND could pass Miami in that scenario. I can't assign any certainty to it. There's too much football left to play and it depends on what other teams do. It's just possible.

SM:2] Assuming said premise above from previous question, and assuming the Canes win out it could ultimately come down to quality wins as to who gets the second spot in the title game. That being the case, do you think that a one loss VA TECH team would be ranked ahead or behind a one-loss Michigan team?
JP] Depends on voters' mood and how badly Miami wins.

SM3:] So at this point, would you agree that Miami is still a long way from being in control of their own destiny. In order to be in control, Miami would need either some or all of the following things to happen, correct: 1] someone knocks off Oklahoma, 2] FSU beats the Irish, and 3] Michigan loses to Ohio State and somebody knocks off Air Force, depleting the Irish of their quality win and if the Irish lose to FSU, then Miami winds up with quality points from wins over VATECH and ND wind up with one.
JP] The only team I feel comfortable saying it controls its own destiny is Oklahoma

SM4:] Or would it be better for Miami if OSU loses to Michigan, in which case Michigan would be ranked extremely high [for a one loss team] and would give ND more points for quality wins -- At the beginning of the season, the talk was that Miami had such a tough non-conference and road schedule, how is it possible that Miami is ranked approximately number 4 by the computers and that ND, a team that has gone undefeated but had some very unimpressive performances [i.e. a two point win over PITT] seems to be a consensus number one by the computers. What more could Miami have done in order to be ranked either 1 or 2 by the computers?
JP] Ask me about the OSU-Michigan game that week. As for their schedule, not playing FAMU or UConn would help. Much better to have played Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, or the like.

SM5:] Now, in your opinion, A) How many teams go undefeated? Would you name them for our readership?
JP] 2 - Miami and Ohio St B) if Oklahoma isn't one of the undefeated, who do you see knocking them off.
JP] Iowa St in a Big 12 title game rematch. Also, possibly, Texas A&M. C) Similarly even if Georgia wins out and goes undefeated, don't you think that they will get shut out of the title game?
JP] Depends on who the competition is, but I don't think you need to worry about Georgia finishing undefeated. They don't have enough offense.

SM6:] Who do you think are going to make it to the title game and the rest of the BCS Bowl Games and what do you think will be the results of the title game?
JP] My BCS game picks are:

Miami vs Ohio St - Fiesta
Iowa vs Wash St - Rose
FSU vs Va Tech - Orange
LSU vs Iowa St - Sugar

Miami wins the title game.

SM7:] If you have any other comments you would like to add pertaining particularly to Miami or The BCS, would you please offfer them now?
JP] I would just tell Miami fans to relax. It's too early to worry about this.

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