The Impact of 4-5 Star Players - Part 2 of 3

In the 2nd part of the impact of 4 and 5 star signees on a college football program, I look at the actual won-loss results for each SEC team for the years 2007 to 2012. I also go into detail about the wins and losses for each team.


The table below shows three different things. On the left-hand side of the table the number represents the average number of 4 and 5 stars each team has signed during each 5-year signing period for the years 2007-2012. On the right-hand side of the table is the overall won-loss ranking/record for those years as well as how each team did against the three different categories of 4 and 5 star talent levels, 1-30, 31-50 and 51+.

This table lets you see how each program did against similar talent as well as better talent. Each category represents the average level of 4-5 star talent each SEC team has signed for the five year signing periods for the years 2007-2012. The wins and losses are for SEC games only. (Because Texas A&M and Missouri have only played 1 SEC season, they will be listed at the bottom of the table.)

TEAM SIGNEE RANKING
W-L RANKING-RECORD VS 4-5 STAR TALENT
SEASONS 2007-2012
SEC GAMES ONLY
TEAM SIGNEE
AVG
W-L
RECORD
RECORD
VS 1-30
RECORD
VS 31-50
RECORD
VS 51+
Alabama 55 41-10 22-1 11-4 8-5
LSU 65 36-15 16-6 12-1 8-8
Florida 75 35-15 17-2 11-4 7-9
Georgia 60 33-16 17-3 11-7 5-6
South Carolina 31 27-22 15-7 5-5 7-10
Arkansas 17 23-25 9-7 10-6 4-12
Auburn 49 23-26 12-11 5-1 6-14
Mississippi State 18 19-29 13-7 3-9 3-13
Tennessee 50 18-31 14-6 2-6 2-19
Vanderbilt 1 14-34 9-8 5-10 0-16
Ole Miss 26 13-35 7-13 3-8 3-14
Kentucky 8 12-36 7-11 3-12 2-13
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Texas A&M 34 6-2 4-0 1-0 1-2
Missouri 15 2-6 1-1 1-2 0-3


Items of Interest:

*** Alabama is the only team that has a winning record against each classification. LSU is close behind with winning records against the 1-30 and 31-50 classification but has an 8-8 record against the 51+ teams. Alabama is also the only team among all SEC teams that has a winning record against the teams in the 51+ category, 8-5.

*** Back to Alabama, they have only lost 1 of 23 games to teams in the 1-30 category, Mississippi State in 2008.

*** As you would expect, the four teams with the most 4-5 star talent - Florida, LSU, Georgia and Alabama - have the best records against the teams ranked below them in 4-5 star signed talent. Against teams in the 1-30 category, Alabama is first with a 22-1 record, Florida is 2nd at 17-2, followed by Georgia's 17-3 and LSU's 16-6. In the 31-50 category, LSU is tops with a 12-1 record, followed by Alabama and Florida at 11-4 and Georgia at 11-7. Percentage-wise, Auburn would be among the top four with a 5-1 record but that is less than half the number of games the other teams have played against that caliber opponent.

*** Strangely enough, Arkansas has a better record against teams in the 31-50 category (10 wins, 6 losses) than they do against teams in the 1-30 category (9 wins, 7 losses).

*** Of the teams in the 1-30 category, the team with the best record against other category 1-30 teams is Mississippi State with a 13-7 record. The category 1-30 team with the worst record against those same teams is Ole Miss at 7-13.

*** Sticking with the 1-30 teams, how do they do against teams who have signed more 4-5 star talent than them? The best of those five teams against 31-50 category teams is Arkansas with a 10-6 record, followed by Vanderbilt at 5-10, Ole Miss at 3-8, MSU at 3-9 and Kentucky at 3-12. Against the 51+ category teams (Florida, LSU, Georgia, Alabama), they have the following records - Arkansas 4-12, MSU 3-13, Ole Miss 3-14, Kentucky 2-13 and Vanderbilt 0-16. Heck, even the newcomers to the SEC - Texas A&M and Missouri - are finding it tough-going against those teams, with a combined 1-5 record (TAM 1-2, Missouri 0-3).

*** Although it doesn't show up in any category, there has been much talk about moral victories. So, who among the teams outside of the 51+ category has the most moral victories during the years 2007 to 2012? I'll classify a moral victory as a loss of 10 or less points against any of these four teams, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU. There have been 42 moral victories in the last 6 seasons. I have listed them by team.

  • Tennessee - 7
  • Kentucky - 6
  • Auburn - 6
  • Arkansas - 5
  • Ole Miss - 5
  • South Carolina - 5
  • Vanderbilt - 4
  • Mississippi State - 3
  • Texas A&M - 1

    As for those moral victories and how important they are to the success of a program, I don't think they help a whole lot, especially when you consider the first four teams on this list fired their coaches this year. Ouch! I guess the ADs at those schools don't put much importance on moral victories.

    BTW, the team that has allowed the most moral victories the past 6 years is LSU with 14. They allowed 5 moral victories this past season. Georgia allowed two this season while Florida hasn't allowed a moral victory since 2011 and Alabama hasn't allowed one since 2010.

    In case you are wondering, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU have won 117 games against the other SEC teams with less signed 4-5 star talent than them during that 2007-2012 period. Of those victories, 36% of them were moral victories for the lesser 4-5 star talented SEC teams that played them.

    Speaking of moral victories, what about competitive wins and losses, games that are decided by 10 points or less? How has each SEC program done in those SEC games during the years 2007-2012? I'll list the teams by most overall won-loss success to least overall won-loss success.

    TEAM RECORD
    VS 1-30
    RECORD
    VS 31-50
    RECORD
    VS 51+
    OVERALL
    RECORD
    Georgia 6-2 6-2 3-2 15-6
    LSU 6-4 8-1 6-5 20-10
    Florida 6-2 4-2 3-4 13-8
    Alabama 5-1 2-3 3-4 10-8
    Auburn 5-6 4-0 4-5 13-11
    Mississippi State 7-2 1-3 2-3 10-9
    South Carolina 7-2 1-3 3-5 11-10
    Arkansas 3-4 1-1 4-5 8-10
    Tennessee 7-3 1-3 0-6 8-12
    Vanderbilt 4-2 3-6 0-4 7-12
    Kentucky 2-4 3-6 2-5 7-15
    Ole Miss 3-5 1-3 2-5 6-13
    ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
    Texas A&M 1-0 0-0 1-2 2-2
    Missouri 0-1 1-0 0-1 1-2


    Items of Note

    *** The most successful programs in these type games is Georgia (15-6), the least successful team is Ole Miss (6-13).

    *** And once again the teams with the most 4-5 star signees lead the pack, with Georgia, LSU, Florida and Alabama at the top of the list.

    *** In addition to Georiga, LSU, Florida and Alabama, the only other teams with winning records in these type games are Auburn, Mississippi State and South Carolina.

    *** LSU has played in 30 of these games, winning 20. No other team is even close when it comes to playing that many games. Most of the other teams have played between 18 and 21.


    Thursday, in the final part of the three-part series, I'll show how each coach has done against other SEC teams based on their 4 and 5 star talent level.


    Gene Swindoll is the publisher of the GenesPage.com website, the source for Mississippi State sports on Scout.com sports network. You can contact him by emailing swindoll@genespage.com.


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