Will MSU Host A Regional?

What are Mississippi State baseball's chances of hosting an NCAA regional? I break down the numbers and come up with my list of the 16 regional hosts based on those numbers.

It has been six years since Mississippi State hosted a regional. The year was 2007 and MSU hosted Clemson in a Super Regional. That is also the last time MSU has gone to the College World Series. Will this year be the year MSU once again hosts a regional?

I'll crunch the numbers and come up with total points for each team still in the running for host spots. The team with the most points will be the number 1 seed and the team with the least amount of points will be the 16th seed.

The numbers I'll use will be based on the team's RPI (source: Boydsworld.com), Strength of Schedule (SOS) (source: WarrenNolan.com), overall wins, record versus teams in the top 50 RPI-wise, their road record, a team's total conference wins and their record for the last 10 games.

Since the RPI is such an important part of the NCAA selection process, I doubled the number for a team's RPI points total.

First, who will be the national seeds?

No. 1 - Vanderbilt comes in at number 1 with 154 points. Their RPI is number 1, strength of schedule is 22, they have 48 total wins, their record against top-50 RPI teams is 21-3, they have a 17-3 road record, 26 conference wins and are 9-1 in their last 10 games.

No. 2 - LSU comes in at second with 128 points. They have a 6 RPI, a 40 SOS, 48 total wins, a 24-7 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 13-4 road record, 23 conference wins and are 8-2 in their last 10 games..

No. 3 - In 3rd is Virginia with 127 points. They have a 3 RPI, a 12 SOS, 45 wins, a 17-8 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 13-6 road record, 22 conference wins and are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

No. 4 - Oregon State comes in at 4th with 126 points. They have a 4 RPI, a 31 SOS, 43 wins, a 10-4 record against top-50 RPI teams, an 18-6 road record, 22 conference wins and are 9-1 in their last 10 games.

No. 5 - North Carolina comes in at No. 5 with 124 points. They have an RPI of 2, a SOS of 8, 47 wins, a 20-8 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 10-3 road record, 21 conference wins and a 6-4 record in their last 10 games. Their record in their last 10 games hurt their chances of being higher.

No. 6 - Cal State Fullerton and North Carolina State both have 114 points but I give the 6th seed to Cal State Fullerton because they have a better RPI (8), 3 more wins (45), more road wins (23-4) and a slightly better record in the last 10 games (9-1) than NC State. Their record against top-50 teams is 12-3. They have 19 conference wins.

No. 7 - North Carolina State is the 7th seed with 114 points. NC State has a 9 RPI, a 10 SOS, 42 wins, a 16-9 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 15-5 road record, 19 conference wins and an 8-2 record in the last 10 games.

No. 8 - The last national seed is Florida State with 113 points. Their RPI is 5, SOS is 20, they have 44 wins, a 14-11 record against top-50 RPI teams, an 11-8 road record, 20 conference wins and an 8-2 record in the last 10 games.

What teams make up the 9th through 16th regional hosts?

No. 9 - Oregon comes in at 9th with 110 points. They have an RPI of 7, a 23 SOS, 43 wins, a 6-10 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 21-6 road record, 20 conference wins and an 8-2 record in the last 10 games. Their poor record against top-50 RPI teams prevented them from being a national seed.

No. 10 - Clemson comes in as the 10th seed with 92 points. Their RPI is 12, SOS 7, they have 39 wins, a 13-14 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 12-8 road record, 18 conference wins and an 8-2 ten-game record.

No. 11 - Mississippi State is the 11th seed with 88 points. They have a 10 RPI, a SOS of 6, a total of 40 wins, a 19-14 record against top-50 RPI teams, an 8-9 road record, 16 conference wins, and a 7-3 record in their last 10 games. State's road record and conference wins prevented them from being a national seed. Things in their favor were their high RPI and SOS and a good record against top-50 RPI teams. They actually played more games against top-50 RPI teams than any other team in the nation, 33 total.

No. 12 - Louisville comes in at 12th with 83 points. Their RPI is 13th, SOS 86th, 46 wins, an 8-4 record against top-50 teams, a 13-4 road record, 20 conference wins and a 10-0 record in their last 10 games. What hurts Louisville the most is their poor SOS.

No. 13 - Based on points, Virginia Tech should be the 13th seed, but due to geographic concerns and the fact that the ACC already has 5 regional hosts VA Tech won't receive the host site. Due to that, South Carolina, with 73 points, will get this host spot. Their RPI is 11, their SOS is 18, they have 39 wins, an 11-12 record against top-50 RPI teams, an 11-8 road record, 17 conference wins and a 6-4 record in their last 10 games.

No. 14 - Like Virginia Tech, South Alabama, despite having enough points to earn a host spot, is probably on the outside looking in because of geographics. UCLA, who would normally be the 16th seed, moves up two spots and comes in as the 14th seed with 65 points. Their RPI is 17, their SOS is 34, they have 37 wins, a 5-8 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 13-6 road record, 19 conference wins and an 8-2 record in their last 10 games.

No. 15 - Here is where the geographics come into play. Indiana, despite only having 62 points, is the 15th seed. Their points should have made them the 17th place team in a 16-team race but the NCAA wants to spread the host sites around to locations throughout the United States. Due to that, Indiana will likely be awarded the 15th seed. Their RPI is very good at 14, but their SOS is 73rd, they have 40 wins, a 9-8 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 15-9 road record, 17 conference wins and a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.

No. 16 - Another team that will likely get in partly due to geographics is Kansas State, who has 55 points. Their RPI is solid at 18, their SOS is 41, they have 39 wins, an 8-6 record against top-50 RPI teams, a 12-8 road record, 16 conference wins and an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. Their resume is solid but it would have put them at 18th.


I'll update this information throughout the week.


Gene Swindoll is the publisher of the GenesPage.com website, the source for Mississippi State sports on the Scout.com sports network. You can contact him by emailing swindoll@genespage.com.


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