My KSU "LOCK" didn't work out because they decided, for whatever reason, to not run up the score once they got comfortably ahead and they didn't cover the spread by half a point. Snyder fouls things up again!
Also, OU covered by half a point. I thought North Texas would manage a LITTLE offense. Well it didn't happen.
By Saturday, I had backed off the South Florida pick but I had it listed as a lock so there we go.
Bad, bad week folks...it can happen to anybody.
As I always mention these picks are for your entertainment purposes only and I don't want to be at all responsible for your budget. I am barely responsible for my own budget!
So here is where we stand after one week (and KSU's first game).
Straight up 11-3 Against the Spread 5-9 So called LOCKS 0-2
I have always done my best work in the preseason so this may not be the best year. However, hope springs eternal...!
GAME OF THE WEEK
OU (-8) at Alabama - Boy do I like this Oklahoma team. If White is anywhere near what he appears to be at QB than this team is a no brainer #1 (although let's give USC some credit for that outstanding performance this weekend). Alabama has a lot of talent and they have certainly been pointing to this game but unless it's a Top 5 opponent (and maybe even then) I'll give up 8 points on the Sooners every time.
Pick: OU 28 Bama 13
GAME #2 OF THE WEEK
UCLA (+3) at CU - This is probably not the best place for Karl Dorrell to make his head coaching debut. This team has quite a bit of returning talent and fortunately for them they have significant talent returning in the secondary. Hey, I can admit that this Joel Klatt was far more impressive than anyone but the most ardent CU fans could have anticipated. However CSU is not exactly an offensive juggernaut and they moved the ball up and down the field well. The Buffs are going to have to outscore folks this year but it looks like they may have the horses to do so. Having played a game should be a huge advantage for the Buffs.
Pick: CU, they win 34-28
MIZZOU (-14) at Ball State - I have read a myriad of complaints about the Missouri offensive game plan in week one. "It was too conservative" and "We didn't exploit the middle of the field" appear to be the main complaints. I think there is a tremendous amount of validity to these complaints and I expect Pinkel to keep things close to the vest in a game the Tigers should win easily. Ball State simply doesn't have the (offensive or defensive) lines to compete well with the Tigers. They do have a nice QB coming back and pretty solid receivers. I don't think Coach Hoke is going to abandon his typical offensive plan just to try and compete in this one game though. (I do think throwing it all over the yard is BSU's best chance, even with a fine RB last year this game got ugly for the Cardinals) Lorenzo Scott is a player at LB. Hey, I was shocked when the Tigers got whipped at Bowling Green last year and this is the same scenario (biggest game ever for the home team). However, I see enough improvement in athleticism on defense to prevent any shockers from occurring. If I didn't think the offensive game plan would be incredibly conservative I would pick this as a LOCK. As it is, I just feel really good about this one.
Pick: MU 28-6
Utah State AT Nebraska (-32.5) - There is still some cause for concern in Lincoln, but that Okie State game was a huge win for the Huskers. I continue to maintain that Lord simply isn't a Big XII caliber passer. The offense did wear down the Pokes but the Blackshirts won the game, that much is obvious. The good news for the Huskers is that Penn State and Southern Miss appear to be worse than advertised. As for Utah State, they got whipped by a Husker team last year that appears to be much worse than this year's version. I'll give up these points.
Pick: Nebraska 48-7
Wyoming (+20) AT Okie State - Well the Pokes offense really got shut down Saturday. However, they still have a lot of talent and I expect for them to take out some frustrations on a horrible opponent.
LOCK OF THE WEEK - OSU 45 Wyoming 6
Baylor (+15.5) at North Texas - Well Baylor was competitive in week one. I guess that's a nice step. As I have said North Texas is pretty good and they are at home, they want to beat a Big XII team badly and I think they will win convincingly.
Pick: UNT 31-10
Ohio (+19) AT Iowa State - Boy what an awful week one for the Clones. I have predicted a rough season for ISU but this may get really bad. Ohio is pretty horrible but running the option takes enough time off the clock I think they will cover this one. This is a tough call as ISU needs a blowout badly.
Pick: Take Ohio and the points, they lose 24-7
Utah (+10) at A&M - Frustrating week one for the Aggies. Utah really isn't that good and I think the Aggies show more of what they can do on offense here. If they do not, the next few weeks will be really bad.
Pick: A&M 31-14
UNLV (-11.5) at KU - KU managed to flub an XP to ruin the chance to tie Northwestern late. UNLV is far more talented than KU although they make too many mental errors. That shouldn't matter here.
Pick: UNLV 34-10
New Mexico (+12.5) at Texas Tech - Okay, Tech did exactly what I thought they would do to a way overmatched SMU secondary. New Mexico has suffered some losses in the secondary (not good) but has very strong linebackers (maybe even more important against Tech). If Tech beats New Mexico the way they did last year I will back off my gloom and doom predictions for the Raiders. I'll pick Tech to win this but I see tough times ahead for the Raiders.
Pick: New Mexico and those lucious points... they lose 31-27
I'll take KSU over the sacrificial lamb they have on the schedule this week.
I also like Virginia even without their QB (-3.5) at South Carolina.
I'll stick with Auburn (-8) at Georgia Tech although they really let me down last time.
I will go with Cal (-2) over a CSU team I really like but the secondary was shredded by CU. This is a bad matchup for the Rams.