So for the year we are now 55-24 Straight up and 6-4 on LOCKS. We are FINALLY just a half game behind how a monkey would perform throwing darts at a newspaper as we are now 34-35 ATS on the year. While that is poor, it is MUCH better than we were looking at the beginning of the year. There are some big games this week so let's get to them.
GAME OF THE WEEK 2:30 ABC
Texas Tech AT Okie State (-4)(230 ABC)... Sometimes these point spreads really make me angry. I have been waiting for a line on this game all week and I thought the hot team in college football (which is Tech) would be favored. Of course, OSU is coming off a huge win against KSU which really bodes well for their chance at a successful season. While winning the South doesn't look probable for either team, the winner of this one will be sitting in a competitive situation where it could happen.
I got to see a little of the OSU game last week and was impressed enough with their secondary I think they can pull this one off. Texas Tech is darn near unbeatable at home but not quite as strong on the road. I readily admit I underestimated Tech this year but I still think they lose this one.
PICK OSU 38-30
MIZZOU (+26.5) at OU (6 PM FOX SPORTS)- Gary Pinkel was on Sporting News Radio yesterday and he mentioned that he would rather play the Atlanta Falcons than OU on Saturday. While part of that was a salute to the Rams' impressive win on Monday night (C'mon coach you have to be more of a Chiefs' fan don't you?) it's not that far from the truth. So far this year OU has looked almost like a pro team. MizzouRah always finds reason to hope and let's face it, the Tigers had a heck of a shot to win that game last year but this is a different locale against an improved offense.
There are a lot of Tiger fans that are insulted by this spread coming off a 17 point win over Nebraska. I am not one of them. I had mentioned that I would pick OU this week and I am backing off that because I expected the spread to be lower but gang OU is putting up 50+ every week. The MU D is improving but this team is not at the level where we can expect much against OU in my opinion. I think we are a legit Top 25 team but that's about it. I think OU is on a different level. I think the Tigers offense is good enough to get some things done here but I don't see an overly competitive game. Quite frankly, I am picking MU because I think the chance of a Fresno State style easy win for OU but not a situation where Stoops runs it up as he did on Texas is quite likely. I know Brad Smith made the OU D angry last year but I don't see OU going out of their way to pour it on if they get up 30 and MU has enough fight in them to maybe come back a little bit.
I am going to pick MU to cover but lose 41-17 and this may or may not be due to a late score and cover by the Tigers. Of course I hope I am wrong.
Texas A&M (+10.5) at Nebraska (1130 FOX SPORTS) - A&M has had a fairly decent offense this year. I don't think their rush defense is that strong though. I was impressed with the way the Huskers ran the ball on the option Saturday and I think they will move the ball fairly well here. A&M is coming off a nice performance although it is difficult to judge much when you play Baylor at home. This should be a fairly competitive game although A&M had a rough performance at Tech but this is an entirely different type of match up.
I will pick A&M here but they lose 20-14
Texas (-16.5) AT Iowa State - I think the best way to win when betting is to find a poor team AND BET AGAINST THEM. Iowa State is a poor team. Texas beat Tulane on the road by 45 and I don't think ISU is a heck of a lot better than Tulane. I know that Texas is coming off a poor performance but even if they are down they are WAY too good to be competitive with ISU.
LOCK OF THE WEEK, MAYBE LOCK OF THE YEAR
TEXAS the EASY way - 52-13 Texas
Baylor (+20) at Kansas - It's homecoming at KU and they appear to have a nice football team this year. I have been planning on taking Baylor all week but the more I think about it I think that KU is trying to keep their fans excited and they will go out of their way to rout a poor Baylor team. KU can score and they will do this here.
"shaky" Pick KU 38-14
CU AT KSU (-18.5) - Look I think KSU has a pretty good team but they have lost three in a row. CU I think will have some success running the ball and that will keep this one competitive.
Pick CU they lose 31-21
Thursday Air Force (+5.5) to win at CSU - This line is high because CSU beat a bad BYU team.
I love Marshall (-29) against the worst team in college football which is Buffalo. (see my theory above)
It's a good week of football coming up. Good luck to your team (as long as they don't have an OU on their helmet!).