We went 4-9 against the spread last week (11-13 on the year, ouch) and 9-6 straight up (20-9 on the year). Let's try to get over .500 on the year. Let's start with the home team and my rant so if you want to skip this be my guest.
Lines are from today's KC Star
Troy (+21) at MIZZOU - Okay, the Tigers suffered a very disappointing loss last week. The defensive line appears to have serious issues and that made the secondary look bad. The secondary is not that bad actually but Baskett is an All-American type WR and the QB had too much time to focus on him.
Let's review some of the points I disagree with I have seen brought up in the wake of this loss.
1. The new offense is not going to work. This is crazy, I understand those folks who think that are concerned about Brad running the ball too much and that he might get hurt. I even understand (don't agree with but understand) these folks that think the offense is only successful because of Brad and that we are doing well in spite of the offensive plan. The fact is this offense was BAD last year even with Brad, so clearly things are much better this year.
2. This loss pretty much locks up a 4 win season for the Tigers give or take. Time will tell but I think this is insane. Again when we get Coffey back we will be in very strong shape at RB/WR/TE and QB and the line can improve but it does appear to be better than last year. New Mexico beat Texas Tech last year who went on to a decent season. I really think the poor call on Brad's "fumble" hurt us terribly and it was a very competitive game against a team that I think will win 8 or 9 games this year in the regular season. I was at the game and I saw a well organized/well coached team on the other side that just didn't make turnovers or big mistakes minus a couple offsides penalties, it's not a crime to give the other team a little credit. These people that want to fire Pinkel today make me sick or fans that are already giving up on the year make me sick. We have played TWO games this year.
Let's see how the year goes before we panic and then we can figure out if a change needs to be made. I don't think there will be that need but this isn't the time to worry about that.
3. Anyone that booed our punter can stay home in the future, yeah I know he did a poor job but that's pathetic, it's not like he is trying to struggle. However, he is now in a backup role, so we'll see how Adam Crossett does in his place.
4. This team is quick and athletic, this will show up big time against an overmatched Troy team that only mustered 7 points at home against a good but not great UAB team. MU's "bad" offense will somehow manage to put up a lot of points again this week. I wonder how that happens.
Folks, the real game of the year right now is 10/8 in Stillwater. MU will win that one and things won't look so bad. WE haven't talked much about Troy but they lost their entire D line and only return 8 starters. MU will be fired up for many reasons. Fans need to get out and support this team, this should be a fun game for MU fans. I listened to Tiger Talk last night and from Woods' and Jackson's comments during the player's time on the air I certainly do not believe this team has given up on the year like some fans have.
Pick MIZZOU 41-10
Other Big XII Games
What I did this week is guess the final score and what I thought the spreads would be before the spreads came out, this helped me with my picks for better or worse!
Texas (-40) vs. Rice - well congrats to UT, I've gotta say that type of big time win on the road impressed me. That was a big hurdle for them, blowing out the Rice's of the world is not a hurdle for them. UT covers. TEXAS 58 Rice 6
Texas A&M (-28) vs. SMU - SMU beat TCU in the big rivalry game. I've gotta give that some credit. I'm not sold on A&M's offense enough to give this many points.
Pick SMU - they lose 35-10
La. Tech (+14) is at KU - Here is a spread I picked correctly! KU has some issues on offense but they should create enough turnovers to cover this spread. Hey if La Tech. still had Ryan Moats I'd pick them but they lost their entire D line and Moats.
Pick KU 31-14
Pitt (+10.5) at Nebraska - Well the Panthers lost to Frank Solich's Ohio "Boisterous" Bobcats last Friday, now they get a shot at his old team. This spread is higher than I anticipated. My guess would be before the season that Pitt would have been favored in this game but now they appear to have no real offensive line. They allowed 2 TD's on INT's last week and Nebraska scored 3 TD's on INT's. Gee, I'd focus on running the ball and not making mistakes. The Husker offense is still experiencing growing pains. I can't believe Pitt is that bad and I am inclined to pick them to win outright, but it's tough to win in Lincoln and this bunch from Pitt does not appear poised.
Pick Pitt, they lose 20-17
OU (+7) at UCLA - Yup that's a plus 7. Let's face it OU looks really bad on offense right now. This spread is going to be way off one way or the other. I doubt if UCLA wins it will be that close. My head may be in the clouds but I think OU has enough talent left on D to win this one outright. For the Mizzou fans that are in panic mode, I bet UNM finishes above TCU in that conference.
Pick OU 24-20
Baylor (-5) at Army - Can Baylor start 3-0? Yes! I don't think Army has the athletes Baylor does believe it or not. I think this game is on ESPN Classic or something like that, it should be interesting.
Pick Baylor 27-20
Oklahoma State (-24.5) hosts Arkansas State - OSU has finally settled on a QB but this offense is not ready for prime time. FAU just gave that game away last week so I think ASU will keep it somewhat respectable.
Pick ASU, they lose 31-13
Texas Tech blows out whatever 1AA joke opponent they have this week. It's not worth my time to see who they are playing. There's no line anyway.
CU, ISU and KSU are off this week. I was happy to be dead wrong about the 'Clones but that makes them scary in the Big XII North.
Thursday night I like TCU (+3) to rebound from a dismal performance against SMU and beat Utah.
I'll take Tennesee (+3.5) to pull the upset over Florida.
It's bad in Fayetteville this year, the Hogs (+31) can't even keep it that close against USC.
Good luck to your team this week!