Well it's a late day of work after flying in from Vegas LATE on Monday night but MizzouRah is going to fight off exhaustion to get your picks to you in a timely manner! How's that for committment?
Anyway, we were 5-4 ATS last week and 32-38 on the year against the Vegas spread. We were only 5-4 straight up and 48-19 on the year. By the way there is a great article in the Columbia Tribune about point spreads and my favorite weekly preview in any newspaper where the Trib writers have the guts to pick against the spread. It seems MU doesn't like that "promotion of gambling", thankfully Hank Waters doesn't really care about what MU thinks in this case.
I had a very strong weekend in Vegas. I played small on too many games but I bet strong on 1. MU 2. Texas (and SO many folks tried to talk me out of that, my 45-14 pick was very close) and 3. KSU, now I actually picked KU last week but I let the 810 WHB crew talk me into KSU. Had some success on the video poker machines and life is good!
I'm going to start with my "other" games. I actually put small wagers on these but I bet no Big XII games except in one teaser.
I took FIU to beat NOrth Texas in a pick 'em game. I'm telling you UNT is awful.
I took USC -11.5 to blow out Notre Dame. I know it's in South Bend yada, yada but this is a blowout waiting to happen. ND is good but not great.
I took New Mexico +7 against Wyoming. I have to confess I didn't know UNM blew the game Saturday night so I won't pick them to win outright.
I took Bama -12.5 to blowout a bad Ole Miss team.
On to the Big XII!
Iowa State (+6) is at MIZZOU - You know I was SO glad to have Sirius radio to be able to listen to the game Saturday albeit I had to listen to the OSU network. One of the things I found most disturbing was to see the negativity from some of our fans just a couple hours after the OSU win. I don't want to get overly excited but if you can't enjoy a league win on the road then I just think you may need to reevaluate things. Winning is always fun, even if you are favored. I was upset with letting OSU back in the game as well but winning should really help this team. I mean come on people, we opened up the offense and stayed aggressive on offense when last year we probably blow a lead like that.
An ISU loss would really knock them out of the North race, a loss for MU would be bad as well but I guess they could recover if they were to win the next two games it might set up a showdown with CU. Since Nebraska appears to be the other North contender right now that game is the most important of the next three.
ISU is struggling right now but they are a very good team on defense. I still don't think any D will shut down this MU offense this year and ISU is no exception but I think this will be a competitive game. No Stevie Hicks is huge as he presented ISU's best chance for success. Yet another entertaining shootout in an MU game but I say the Tigers hold on at home. This is homecoming at the University where it was invented but our ISU homecoming record is poor. If Hicks were healthy this would be close to a pick 'em but I'll say.
MIZZOU is the pick 38-28
KSU (+13.5) at Texas Tech - The 'Cats are just getting overwhelmed with injuries on the O line. That's bad for them because that's a young, fairly talented line, that is really banged up. That also should keep KSU from being able to keep a fairly good D off the field enough to keep it close.
Pick TECH 48-27
OSU (NO LINE) at A&M - I'm guessing this is because of Bobby Reid's injury. A&M shocked me on Saturday. Fortunately I was playing video poker and forgot to bet on A&M! I don't see OSU being able to get much done on the road here but they do fight hard and they have a good defense.
I'll pick A&M 23-14 so we'll see what the line is.
CU (-18) at Texas - I think CU is the second best team in the Big XII right now. We'll see if that holds up. I just am VERY impressed with UT as I said last week. Let's look back at the Miami game (23-3), I think UT is better than the 'Canes so I'm not that critical of CU right now.
I'll take Texas in a game that is close for a half... 34-14
OU (-5.5) at Kansas - KU just couldn't do anything on offense last Saturday. At some point that D is going to get tired of saving the day for a team that isn't winning. I think KU sold out a potential victory by moving this game to Arrowhead and for what? Projected attendence is in the low '50s? Couldn't you draw that in Lawrence? I guess the stadium only holds like 47K but I would think this game might fill that up. I'm going to pick KU anyway but they just don't usually win these type of close games where they can step it up.
KU loses 21-17
Nebraska (-2.5) at Baylor - I was mad that FSN is showing OU/Baylor at 6 PM next week and MU/NU got the 1130 slot but I understand it. I would like to watch this game and see BU for myself. I'm going on the assumption that I have been too hard on the Bears and they are a solid Big XII team at least on defense. I got advice not to bet ISU and I took it fortunately last week. Nebraska had a tough loss and they are clearly maturing but it's harder to play well on the road, even in Waco. As for a winner? Well see my KU comment, I can't quite pull the trigger yet.
Pick Baylor they lose 24-23
Huge game for the Tigers this week, I'm STILL optimistic about the year.
By the way NEVER listen to MizzouRah's NFL picks. I went 0-4 on Sunday (little bets) before trying the opposite of what I really thought on Sunday night (took the money line on the Jags!).
I'm going to try and get a Vegas trip report up in the next few days and if I do I will post a link to that.
Good luck to your team!