BCS Breakdown - Nebraska still in it..sort of

Lots of stuff over the weekend, and it dealt much of the top 25 some harsh realities, and at a time where teams need to win them all. Here's how it has shaken out to a degree, and I'll even give you my projected BCS before the actual poll comes out officially this evening.

5th ranked Utah...exposed in a humiliating loss

6th ranked Alabama...tricked out of a win

8th ranked Oklahoma...routed by a resurging Texas A&M team

It's not safe in the top 10.

Unless you are Oregon, TCU and Boise State

There are four unbeatens left, the aforementioned trio plus Auburn. Auburn still has to play Alabama in the season-ending Iron Bowl.

Now, if you are a Nebraska fan thinking that's two spots closer to the top or at least, the top two - think again.

Nebraska came into this week ranked 7th in the BCS. Logic would say that they would move up two, but the computers don't like Nebraska nearly as much as they like another team that won this weekend, that being the LSU Tigers, who upset the fifth ranked Crimson Tide.

Computer Rankings
































Now, one must remember that in this formula, the best and worst ranking is thrown out of the equation, and the points are calculated inversely, meaning a rank of #1 is worth 25 points, #2 is worth 24, and so on.

So, look at Nebraska's rankings of 10,8,6,6,4 and 6

The 10 and the 4 are thrown out

That leaves you with 8,6,6 and 6

Counting those inversely, that is 18+20+20+20=78/100 = .780

There is enough disparity between the two now, that I could see LSU actually leaping Nebraska. If Nebraska were to move up to 5th, maybe LSU comes in at 6th. But I have a funny feeling they could do a jump over Nebraska entirely, taking 5th to themselves, while the rest of the top five would be Oregon, TCU, Auburn and Boise State. Auburn is currently second in the poll, but TCU just blasted Utah, which was fifth. I figure for now anyway, that has to count for something.

So, I'll take my own stab at predicting the unpredictable BCS, which will be officially released Sunday evening.

1. Oregon

2. TCU

3. Auburn

4. Boise State

5. LSU

6. Nebraska

7. Wisconsin

8. Ohio State

9. Stanford

10. Michigan State

There's another factor here which is worth considering, because the computers can be so fickle:

The Big 12 isn't very good

Oklahoma, Missouri and Baylor, three out of the five ranked teams from the conference, lose. And only one of those (Baylor) came to a ranked team.

That's going to hurt Nebraska.

Of course, this is for all of you who are clinging desperately to the equations which offer some sort of light at the end of the BCS tunnel. That one chance that Nebraska could, by a quirky fate of mathematics, might make it into the big game and the end of the season. But with the conference basically stinking up the place and making matters worse by cannabilizing themselves from within, the only thing that would give Nebraska a shot would be everyone in front of them losing.

How much you want to bet on that happening?

But Nebraska still has to win out if it wants a chance, albeit a small one.

The good news now, though, is that with Missouri losing, Nebraska can still lose and go to the CCG in Dallas. So, if you are feeling that Nebraska won't lose more than one the rest of the year, you might want to book those tickets now.

The bad news? Nebraska fans are now chewing on that Texas loss even more. Three dropped balls. Yep, and against Texas. Irony, it seems, can be cruel indeed.

But I doubt many were feeling bad watching Kansas State blast them today.

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