Interesting to see statistically what i thought last year. i said the loobs would be lucky to win 5 games. They way overachieved. it seems like they got every break in the book including key Opposition players being injured when teams played the loobs. I again think that they should win about 4 games.The aggies have about a 50% chance of beating them but only because the game is on loob turf. let s hope the ball bounces the aggies way and they beat the loobs again
"The preseason S&P+ projections are a pretty simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting."
Here is a Link that explains each of the factors in play. Gonzo, you are correct about the models being statistics based, primarily on efficiency of offense, defense and special teams. He does a very good job of analyzing teams and spends quite a bit of time on the G5 teams. I listen to his podcast pretty much every week to glean a little more about his mindset and philosophy. His pre-season S&P+ numbers have an over 80% correlation to end of year rankings. As with any models there are always exceptions, last year the Loobs and Idaho are great examples. I am hopeful that this year we will be one of the exceptions.......
To me picking games on an individual basis is difficult because you are dealing with 18-22 year old kids who sometimes show up, sometimes make a bone-headed decision at just the wrong time, or sometimes as FLJ said they get hurt just before or during a winnable game. So if we can catch a few more breaks this year then we will have a chance to win a few more games. All in all, I feel the same as I did last year; 6 or more wins is an excellent job by our coaching staff, 4 or 5 wins is a good job...... For what it's worth here is what Connelly said about last year's team. 2017 projected wins 3.9, 2016 projected wins 4.1........ so very similar projections. I suspect when all the projections come in (Athlon, Massey, etc) we will be projected to win 2-4 games again. Such is life in Aggieland.