Over or Under ?

Prediction #18 in our pre-season series looks at 25 scenarios – both individual and team-related – and ponders if the Irish will surpass or fall short of the expectations listed.

Prediction #18 includes 25 quick statistical projections that will help define the Irish season.

#18 – Irish Over/Under

Most numbers offer a nod to each player's previous best, as well as numbers produced by the Irish as a team last fall.

The ".5" designation attached to each number ensures the prediction will be proven true or false. For example, with Michael Floyd's receptions set at 80.5, he'll exceed or fall short, not hit the number (80) exactly.

  1. Michael Floyd – Receiving yards (1,100), receptions (80.5), touchdowns (12.5): Each mark would rank as a career high for the record-setting wideout.
    Official Predictions: Over yards, under receptions, over touchdowns

  2. Theo Riddick – Scrimmage Yards (999.5), total touchdowns (8.5): Riddick scored three touchdowns last season but played only six games at full strength (ankle injury). The yardage total includes rushing and receiving yards.
    Official Predictions: Under yards, over touchdowns scored

  3. Cierre Wood – Rushing Yards (975.5), total receptions (39.5): The yardage equates to a 75-yard per game average over 13 contests; the receptions would double his season total from 2010
    Official Predictions: Under yards, Over receptions

  4. Jonas Gray – Rushing attempts (75.5), touchdowns (4.5): Gray has carried the ball 75 times in his career, thus he'd need to match his previous three-year total in 13 games this fall; going over the touchdown total would tie the senior for the highest by any runner at the program since Darius Walker's exit in 2006.
    Official Predictions: Over attempts, under touchdowns

  5. Dayne Crist – Total touchdowns (30.5), Interceptions thrown (9.5): Crist scored 19 total touchdowns (15 passing) in eight full games last season. The interception total was chosen arbitrarily; he threw seven last fall.
    Official Predictions: Under touchdowns, under interceptions

  6. Manti Te'o – Tackles (133.5) and Statistical Big Plays (14.5): Te'o had 133 tackles last year and accumulated 13.5 "Big Plays" which include tackles-for-loss, sacks, interceptions, passes defended, fumbles recovered and forced.
    Official Predictions: Under tackles; Over "Big Plays"

  7. Team Sacks (34.5), Tackles for Loss (80.5): Last year's totals were a mere 27 and 69, respectively. The last Irish team to record as many as 35 sacks was the 2003 group (39) led by Justin Tuck.
    Official Predictions: Under sacks; over tackles-for-loss (sacks are inconsistently scored in the college game).

  8. Total team interceptions (19.5), Number of Irish players with 2 or more interceptions (4.5): The defense picked off 18 passes last season with three players recording two or more.
    Official Predictions: Under team total, under individual players

  9. Monogram winners – Defense (24.5): 25 Irish defenders earned monograms last fall
    Official Prediction: Under

  10. Monogram winners – Offense (21.5): 21 Irish offensive players earned monograms last year
    Official Prediction: Over

  11. Missed field goals by Ruffer (2.5): Ruffer missed on kick – his last – in 2010.
    Official Prediction: Over. Last year was unreal

  12. Total "Big Plays" by the freshman class (20.5): Includes TD, sacks, tackles-for-loss, passes defended, interceptions, fumbles forced and recovered. Last year's class produced 16.5 (not including Tommy Rees' 12 touchdown throws.)
    Official Prediction: Over

  13. Total TD scored by the defense and special teams, combined – (3.5): An "over" number would exceed the collective total from 2009-10.
    Official Prediction: Over

  14. Most points allowed (ND) – Single Game (29.5): Three opponents topped this total vs. the Irish in 2010
    Official Prediction: Under

  15. Most points scored (ND) – Single Game (42.5): The Irish have surpassed the total just twice over the last three seasons.
    Official Prediction: Over

  16. Total weeks ranked in either poll (14.5): There are 15 official polls
    Official Prediction: Over

  17. Total receptions by all Irish tight ends (64.5): Last season, Kyle Rudolph and Tyler Eifert combined for 55 while Ragone added three.
    Official Prediction: Under

  18. Combined receptions by Jones, Goodman, and Toma (55.5): Jones recorded 23, Goodman 15, and Toma 14 last fall.
    Official Prediction: Over

  19. Combined receptions by Floyd and Riddick (145.5): For the sake of reference, Jeff Samardzija and Maurice Stovall combined for 146 in 2005
    Official Prediction: Under (barely)

  20. Turnovers committed by the Irish (20.5): Notre Dame committed 24 miscues in 2010
    Official Prediction: Under

  21. Turnovers forced by the Irish (25.5): The Irish forced 25 in 2010
    Official Prediction: Over

  22. Highest ranking (BCS/A.P./Coach's Poll) achieved prior to Bowls (#5.5):
    Official Prediction: "Lower" (#1 is higher)

  23. ND Rushing Yards Per Carry (4.5): The Irish hit 4.0 last year and have not produced a higher average since 2000
    Official Prediction: Under

  24. Touchdowns Scored (45.5): The Irish scored 41 last season and the number includes offense, defense, special teams.
    Official Prediction: Over (barely)

  25. Touchdowns by opponents (21.5): The Irish allowed 29 last season (offense, defense, special teams)
    Official Prediction: Under
  26. Note: Our final two prediction columns, including the season's final record, will be published this weekend.

    Prediction #17 – Tough Sledding

    Prediction #16 – Under 20 Again

    Prediction #15 – Touchdown Trio

    Prediction #14 – Slow Play

    Prediction #13 – Breaking Vegas

    Prediction #12 – Three for Three?

    Prediction #11 – Eifert to score 5 or more

    Prediction #10 – 13 under 30

    Prediction #9 – MSU as the highest scoring game

    Prediction #8 – Roaring 20s

    Prediction #7 – September Slip

    Prediction #6 – 17-season streak ends

    Prediction #5 – Better, Worse, Why? (2010-11 statistical comparison)

    Better, Worse, Why? Part II

    Prediction #4 – Blanton to lead team in picks

    Prediction #3 – The Irish will lose a home game

    Prediction #2 – Fleming and Johnson join the Top 5

    Prediction #1 – Wood will score 10 TD

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