What are the odds? (Pt 1)

Let's get right down to the nitty-gritty. We can talk and talk and talk some more about recruiting, but in the end, it's all about who will be a Buckeye and who won't.

Now, remember that it's early and there's a long way to go.  But I wanted to come up with something determining the chances right now as to who will end up at OSU.  So I contacted Duane Long, and he separated the players by percentages based on how good he feels OSU's chances are right now given the circumstances for each player.  The good news?  We actually had two very low levels - 10% chance or lower and 10-30% chance, but no one slipped that low yet.  But we are going to start from the bottom today, meaning we're going to look at the players who Duane thinks the chances are lower for, and work our way up to the guys who the Bucks stand the best chance with.  

(Duane Long feels there is a 30-49% chance of these players winding up at Ohio State)

Michael Bush (DB/WR/RB/QB, Louisville, KY  Male) - One of the top overall athletes in the country, Michael (left) could probably play football anywhere he wanted, and his basketball situation may be similar.  He can do it all on the football field and would be a two-sport player wherever he winds up.  Could it be Ohio State?  Duane Long talked to him earlier this year, and Michael did indicate an interest in the Bucks (and the Bucks are interested too as they have offered), but right now, odds are less than 50% for this out-of-state superstar.

Shawn Crable (DE, Massillon Washington) - Shawn is one of the highest-rated prospects in Ohio and also one of the most talked-about.  So far this year, he has been the Ohio player who has been the subject of the most rumors as one minute he's supposed to be leaning to Michigan, then the next minute he's going to Ohio State, and so on.  But maybe the rumors of him going out-of-state have some credence because right now, despite having an OSU offer, Duane Long lists the odds of him being a Buckeye at less than 50%.

Chinedum Ndukwe (WR, Dublin Coffman) - Chinedum (left) has solidified himself as one of Ohio's top receivers as he has a good list of offers already, including Purdue, Penn State and Wisconsin.  He hasn't mentioned OSU much so far even though he will be attending camp there.  Duane Long lists the odds down here right now, but they could rise if he is offered.

Dan Pribula (OL, Strongsville) - Dan was rated as the state's top OL coming into this year, but so far, he has not been offered by Ohio State.  Will he?  We may find out over the summertime, but Duane Long thinks the odds of him being a Buckeye aren't too good right now, and they might not increase with an offer.

Brady Quinn (QB, Dublin Coffman) - The story of this man named Brady has been an interesting one so far as he went from not being on the radar screen early last year to all of a sudden being possibly Ohio's #1 QB prospect.  Brady has received many offers -- the type which validate his Tom Lemming Top 100 rating -- but none yet from Ohio State.   Brady told us on the Bucknuts Radio Hour that he likes OSU but will take all five visits and is not close to deciding.  Right now, Duane Long says the odds are less than 50% that he'll wind up at OSU, but they'll rise if offered. 

(Duane feels there is a 50-65% chance of the following players winding up at Ohio State)

Raymond Edwards (DE, Cincinnati Woodward) - In the spring issue of OFS, Duane called Raymond "The best player nobody's talking about."  Well, that's not the case anymore because a whole lotta people are talking about him.  How can we tell that Raymond has emerged as an elite prospect?  An OSU offer, that's how.  For the Buckeyes to extend an offer at this point with the limited numbers they have, they must think that he is special.  At 6-5, 230, 4.6, Raymond has the physical tools that you look for these days in a defensive end.  Right now, Duane rates Raymond in this range as far as OSU's chances.  Tennessee is all over him as well.

Marcel Frost (TE/DE, Lyndhurst Brush) - One of Ohio's best players, Marcel (left) seems to be highest on Ohio State and Maryland right now.  It's going to be interesting to see if a commitment from Louis Irizarry would have an affect on him.  Right now, OSU seems willing to take two TEs if they are good enough. 

Brian Jones (CB, Avon Lake) - Mike D'Andrea's teammate at Avon Lake ranks as one of the top CBs in Ohio, but he may fall in the same situation as Eric Thatcher -- he'll have to show he's the best to get an offer.  Duane says the odds will rise if offered.

Brandon Maupin (DT, West Chester Lakota West) - You have to believe that in any other year, Brandon (left) would be offered by now.  But this year, OSU just happens to have two great DT prospects in front of him in Sian Cotton and David Patterson with limited scholarships.  Maupin has solidified himself as a top 250 player nationally and one of the Midwest's top DT prospects as he is continuing to receive offers.  Brandon doesn't seem to be close to a decision, but right now, Duane rates him in this 50% or slightly better range, and those odds could rise with an OSU offer.

Mike McGlynn (OL, Austintown Fitch) - Duane says that Mike McGlynn has risen to the top when it comes to Ohio OL prospects.  He's got great size (6-6, 315) and athleticism, and Duane says that even though he missed a year due to an academic mix-up, he won't miss a beat.  He'll definitely be one to keep an eye on this summer, and the odds rise with an OSU offer.

Eric Thatcher (CB, Cincinnati Moeller) - Eric may be in a situation where he will have to show he is the best remaining unoffered defensive back in Ohio to get an offer.  There are several competitors and not many spots.  Eric has been offered by Pittsburgh and seems to be quite interested, but the Bucks' chances will rise with an offer.

Romeo Travis (DE, Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary) - A most intriguing prospect, big Romeo will have his chance to prove himself at OSU camp this summer.  Romeo is a two-sport standout as he really emerged as a basketball player last season, but football may be the sport he could be best at down the line even though he has very little experience.  At 6-6, 230 and 4.8, he could be either a DE or TE on the next level.  Duane feels the chances of him being a Buckeye rise with an offer.

Bryan Williamson (WR, Worthington Thomas Worthington) - Bryan (left) has really seen his stock rise, as Duane wrote not too long ago as he rated him as the fastest-rising prospect in Ohio.  He's got what we like to see physically -- 6-3, 200, 4.5 40.  Playing on a team that is not a powerhouse has not hurt him as he has been able to show what he can do.  But with limited space, will OSU have an offer for him?  That is the question.  An offer is already extended to WR Devin Jordan from Massillon, a

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