Numbers and Trends: Week 4

We were asked back in August if we were going to include our projections on stats for this season in Go Pokes Magazine. For about five years running we did that in our August issue, but after last season we have discontinued that feature.

Everything runs it's course and that really did. Besides the last three season the Cowboys had become more consistent in their season numbers. We thought this weekly slice of numbers and trends would be more fun. We are now into our fourth week and we've been doing pretty good. We even have some season long numbers/trends that we will continue to follow each week.

Do not confuse this with Top Matchups and Predictions which will come out every Thursday. However, with some Cowboys calling my radio show on Triple Play Sports Radio and asking about some breakdowns, I decided that this new segment might be fun and interesting as we will take it week by week. We'll take some game specific and season long statistical breakdowns and look at them. Some will be more predictions and guesses, but some will become more trends as we progress through the season.

Both of our trends last week had to do with season long situations starting with that tempo topic that new offensive coordinator Todd Monken was asked about nearly everyday. What we found out after two weeks was that the tempo of this OSU offense may be even faster while being fairly balanced and also more time consuming when the situation calls for it. This week we add the numbers from Tulsa, which can be compared to last year, although that game was played in the evening and not the middle of the night. The numbers for the rest of the season are predictions and you will see we nailed the Tulsa game on the head on the Cowboys play count.

Last Season Opponent - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opp. This Season Predictions - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opponent followed by Actual

Washington State - 81 - 71, ULL - 87 - 71

Troy - 76 - 76, Arizona - 84 - 72

Tulsa - 77 - 79, @Tulsa - 88 - 79, Actual - OSU 88, Tulsa 85

Texas A&M - 68 - 106, @Texas A&M - 78 - 81

@ULL - 87 - 83, Kansas - 91 - 62

@Texas Tech - 81 - 83, @Texas - 80 - 72

Nebraska - 71 - 79, @Missouri - 88 - 84

@Kansas State - 75 - 75, Baylor - 85 - 84

@Texas - 75 - 70, Kansas State - 77 - 69

@Kansas - 86 - 66, @Texas Tech - 84 - 80

Oklahoma - 66 - 107, Oklahoma - 78 - 78

Alamo Bowl/Arizona - 88 - 61, 2011 Bowl Game - ?

After week two Joseph Randle has virtually doubled up Jeremy Smith in yards per carry and touchdowns. The question begs, why wouldn't you just keep Randle in more and give him more carries?

Head coach Mike Gundy answered that question in part this week when he talked about Smith coming in to run on fresh legs. The other part of that answer is that Smith is given different circumstances to run the football. Smith gets the ball on a lot of the short yardage and goal line situations when defenses are stacked to stop the run. You can call those the tough yards if you like.

Our question is, at the end of the year will the disparity of yards per carry and touchdowns be the same, almost two-to-one that it is after two games?

I will say that it won't and here are my projections for the stat line of both players at the end of the regular season, not counting the bowl game.

Here goes:

Joseph Randle: 217 carries - 1,257 yards - 5.79 ypc - 17 TDs

Jeremy Smith: 111 carries - 584 yards - 5.26 ypc - 11 TDs

The current numbers are:

Randle: 62 carries - 378 yards - 6.1 ypc - 7 TDs

Smith: 35 carries - 136 yards - 3.9 ypc - 3 TDs

You can see that we have Smith catching up in both yards per carry and in touchdowns. Randle will still have a sizable advantage in both, but he will not have Smith doubled up. The prevailing influence on these number will continue to be the situations that the two backs are dealing with when they collect their carries.

This week's topic is Texas A&M. What is the secret to the Cowboys recent three game winning streak over the Aggies. It has Texas A&M and their head coach Mike Sherman flustered as Sherman has beaten Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, Texas Tech but he has not beaten Oklahoma State. Is there a common denominator in the Cowboys last three wins that we can look for and hope is present on Saturday at Kyle Field. Let's look for it.

2010 Game: Oklahoma State 38, Texas A&M 35

Score by quarters:

A&M 14-7-0-14 - 35

OSU 0-7-21-10 - 38

Stats - A&M/OSU

Yards Rushing: 126/67

Yards Passing: 409/284

Total Yards: 535/351

Turnovers Lost: 5/3

3rd Down Conversion: 11-of-21/5-of-13

Sacks By: 1/4

2009 Game: Oklahoma State 36, Texas A&M 31

Score by quarters:

OSU 7-7-15-7 - 36

A&M 0-15-7-9 - 31

Stats - OSU/A&M

Yards Rushing: 169/109

Yards Passing: 279/273

Total Yards: 448/382

Turnovers Lost: 1/0

3rd Down Conversion: 6-of-14/7-of-16

Sacks By: 4/0

2008 Game: Oklahoma State 56, Texas A&M 28

Score by quarters:

A&M 7-0-7-14 - 28

OSU 21-7-14-14 - 56

Stats - A&M/OSU

Yards Rushing: 184/215

Yards Passing: 218/186

Total Yards: 402/401

Turnovers Lost: 5/1

3rd Down Conversion: 7-of-16/6-of-12

Sacks By: 0/2

The prevailing trends are kind of interesting, OK very interesting. In each of the games the one stat that Oklahoma State has always won is sacks. In the three games the Cowboys have sacked Aggie quarterbacks 10 times to just one sack by A&M. Going into this game Texas A&M leads the nation in sacks with 5.5 a game, but the Cowboys aren't far off with 3.0 sacks a game. Another trend is in each game and win, Oklahoma State has shut out A&M in one quarter. Last season it was the third. In 2009 it was the first and in 2008 it was the second quarter. The only other stat close in all three games is third down conversion where OSU has always been right around 50 percent. I'll stick with the sacks and a shut out quarter. Oklahoma State needs to have more sacks than the Aggies and honestly, with this Cowboys offensive line, I like my chances. If you are looking at different quarters then maybe this year the Cowboys shut out the Aggies in the fourth quarter.

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