Cowboy Football: Numbers and Trends

This is our weekly look into numbers and trends. You may remember in Go Pokes Magazine when we would predict the offensive and defensive stats including individual numbers for the entire season. We quit that a year ago, but now find ourselves playing with the numbers on a weekly basis.

This week the Cowboys host Baylor of Homecoming at Boone Pickens Stadium and you might be interested to know that Baylor is the invited guest for Homecoming for just the third time in Oklahoma State Homecoming history. The Bears have been a cooperative visitor as Oklahoma State beat Baylor in the 1972 Homecoming Game 20-7 and then in 2008 the Cowboys prevailed 34-6.

In fact, Oklahoma State has been as dominant in their series with Baylor as any opponent in recent years. Oklahoma State has won the past five meetings, including all three since Art Briles took over as Baylor's coach. The Cowboys have won 15 of the past 17 games between the two schools with that streak dating back to the 1983 Bluebonnet Bowl win in Houston.

Over the past four years with Briles as head coach, Oklahoma State has been as successful in beating Baylor as any of the Big 12 South rivals.

2011

Baylor has only played Texas A&M losing 55-28. They still have to play Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Texas.

2010

Baylor lost at Oklahoma State 55-28, lost to Texas A&M 42-30, won at Texas 30-22, and lost to Oklahoma 53-24.

2009

Baylor lost to Oklahoma State 34-7, lost at Texas A&M 38-3, lost to Texas 47-14, and lost at Oklahoma 33-7.

2008

Baylor lost at Oklahoma State 34-6, beat Texas A&M 41-21, lost at Texas 45-21, and lost to Oklahoma 49-17.

A lot of the talk this week has centered on the schedule for the Cowboys and that with Kansas State being unbeaten, Texas Tech coming fresh off an impressive victory against Oklahoma in Norman, and the danger of Baylor's offense and Oklahoma's bounce back that the Oklahoma State schedule remaining is more difficult than the first four games that included Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas and Missouri with three of those four being on the road.

Here's a statistical look at the Cowboys five remaining opponents using conference only stats.

Baylor

lost @ Kansas State 36-35

beat Iowa State 49-26

lost @ Texas A&M 55-28

Coming Up: @ Oklahoma State, Missouri, @ Kansas, Oklahoma. Texas Tech in Arlington, and Texas

Scoring Offense: 37.3

Scoring Defense: 39.0

Total Offense: 505.3

Rushing Offense: 176.0

Passing Offense: 329.3

Total Defense: 487.3

Rushing Defense 219.0

Passing Defense 268.3

Kansas State

Beat Baylor 36-35

Beat Missouri 24-17

Won at Texas Tech 41-34

Won at KU 59-21.

Coming Up: Oklahoma, @ Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, @ Texas, Iowa State

Scoring Offense: 40.0

Scoring Defense: 26.8

Total Offense: 361.8

Rushing Offense: 209.5

Passing Offense: 152.2

Total Defense: 405.2

Rushing Defense: 97.5

Passing Defense:307.8

Texas Tech

Won @ Kansas 45-34

Lost to Texas A&M 45-40

Lost to Kansas State 41-34

Won @ Oklahoma 41-38

Coming Up: Iowa State, @ Texas, Oklahoma State, @ Missouri, Baylor at Arlington

Scoring Offense: 40.0

Scoring Defense: 40.0

Total Offense: 551.2

Rushing Offense: 133.8

Passing Offense: 417.5

Total Defense: 436.5

Rushing Defense: 190.2

Passing Defense: 246.2

Iowa State

Lost to Texas 37-14

Lost at Baylor 49-26

Lost at Missouri 52-17

Lost to Texas A&M 33-17

Coming Up: @ Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State, @ Oklahoma, @ Kansas State

Scoring Offense: 18.5

Scoring Defense: 42.8

Total Offense: 363.2

Rushing Offense: 148.0

Passing Offense: 215.2

Total Defense: 525.0

Rushing Defense: 270.2

Passing Defense: 254.8

Oklahoma

Beat Missouri 38-28

Beat Texas 55-17 in the Texas State Fair

Won at Kansas 47-17

Lost at Texas Tech 41-38

Coming Up: @ Kansas State, Texas A&M, @ Baylor, Iowa State

Scoring Offense: 44.5

Scoring Defense: 25.8

Total Offense: 547.8

Rushing Offense: 150.2

Passing Offense: 397.5

Total Defense: 407.8

Rushing Defense: 135.2

Passing Defense: 268.5

There you have it, where the Cowboys stand with a solid half of a season behind them and some critical opponents coming up in the big easy chairs.

First, here is where OSU stats are compared to those others:

Oklahoma State

Scoring Offense: 45.8

Scoring Defense: 26.8

Total Offense: 509.2

Rushing Offense: 137.2

Passing Offense: 372.0

Total Defense: 445.5

Rushing Defense: 198.5

Passing Defense: 247.0

Before we get deeper into continuing to follow season long projections. Here is what we projected for the Missouri game.

Based on what we have seen all season and what we knew about Missouri, here were are stat projections for the game and below that what actually happened.

Rushing Att. - Yards – TD

Oct. 22 @ Missouri 31 - 187 – 2

Actual stats vs. MU 31 - 195 – 3

Passing Comp-Att-Int - Yards – TD

33 - 57 - 0 - 382 – 4

33 - 50 - 1 - 338 – 3

Total Offense

Plays – Yards

88 – 569

81 - 533

Pretty darn good, huh? Check it out from last week. Those were our numbers and we projected the score to be Oklahoma State 45, Missouri 27.

We are still following our trends and predictions from a couple of weeks ago on tempo and how many plays the Oklahoma State offense runs under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. They have run more plays at a higher tempo thus far than Dana Holgorsen last season, and, in fact, almost reversed their numbers from the Texas A&M game a year ago. Monken's offense has used tempo to wear down several opponents and they are capable of going very fast. The number came down some against Kansas, but that was because the Cowboys were embarrassing the Jayhawks. Late in the game they also went almost exclusively to the run.

Last Season Opponent - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opp. This Season Predictions - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opponent followed by Actual

Washington State - 81 - 71 ULL - 87 – 71

Troy - 76 - 76 Arizona - 84 – 72

Tulsa - 77 - 79 @Tulsa - 88 - 79 Actual - OSU 88, Tulsa 85

Texas A&M - 68 - 106 @Texas A&M - 78 - 81 Actual - OSU 95, A&M 74

@ULL - 87 - 83 Kansas - 91 - 62 Actual - OSU 76, Kansas 81

@Texas Tech - 81 - 83 @Texas - 80 - 72 Actual - OSU 68, Texas 89

Nebraska - 71 - 79 @Missouri - 88 - 84 Actual - OSU 81, Missouri 80

@Kansas State - 75 - 75 Baylor - 85 – 84

@Texas - 75 - 70 Kansas State - 77 – 69

@Kansas - 86 - 66 @Texas Tech - 84 – 80

Oklahoma - 66 - 107 Oklahoma - 78 – 78

Alamo Bowl/Arizona - 88 - 61 2011 Bowl Game - ?

After week two Joseph Randle has virtually doubled up Jeremy Smith in yards per carry and touchdowns. The question begs, why wouldn't you just keep Randle in more and give him more carries?

Head coach Mike Gundy answered that question, in part, when he talked about Smith coming in to run on fresh legs. The other part of that answer is that Smith is given different circumstances to run the football. Smith gets the ball on a lot of the short yardage and goal line situations when defenses are stacked to stop the run. You can call those the tough yards if you like.

Our question is, at the end of the year will the disparity of yards per carry and touchdowns be the same, almost two-to-one that it is after two games?

I will say that it won't and here are my projections for the stat line of both players at the end of the regular season, not counting the bowl game.

Here goes:

Projected Numbers

Joseph Randle: 217 carries - 1,257-yards - 5.79-ypc - 17 TDs

Jeremy Smith: 111 carries - 584-yards - 5.26-ypc - 11 TDs

The current numbers are:

Randle: 121 carries - 690-yards - 5.7-ypc - 12 TDs

Smith: 64 carries - 425-yards - 6.6-ypc - 7 TDs

I think after the huge game that he had at Texas that Jeremy Smith is going to out perform the production number we had on him. I know that Randle's numbers have gone below our prediction on his production but I have every confidence that he will rise back to those or even above. I think we may have underestimated the run production on the whole.


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