Cowboy Football: Numbers and Trends

This could be very tricky because you have two teams on offense in the matchup between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech that like to play fast and move the ball quickly. I'm not sure where to go with this. Texas Tech is like the little child that when he is good, he is very good. When he is bad, he is awful.

The biggest mismatch going into this game statistically is turnovers. Oklahoma State is tops in the nation with 31 turnovers forced, while Texas Tech has forced just 14 in their games. Both teams average losing time of possession. Again, something will have to give.

Here goes:

Rushing Yards: OSU-187, Tech-112

Passing Yards: OSU-362, Tech-384

Total Yards: OSU-549, Tech-496

Turnovers: OSU-0, Tech-3 (1 fumble, 2 interceptions)

3rd Down Conversions: OSU 7-11, Tech 6-13

Time of Possession: OSU 29:28, Tech 30:32

Previous Projections

We were extremely close with our projections in the wins over Missouri and Baylor, but we cooled way off last week with Kansas State. It really started with the turnovers and you can see how impactful those are and how they factor with every other category.

Here were our projections for last Saturday:

Turnovers: OSU - 1 (fumble), Kansas State - 3 (2 fumbles, 1 interception)

Time of Possession: OSU - 26:21, Kansas State - 33:39

Third Down Conversions: OSU 8-of-12 for 67%, Kansas State 5-of-14 for 36%

Total Yards Gained: OSU – 548, Kansas State - 368

Here were the actual numbers in the 52-45 win over Kansas State:

Turnovers: OSU - 4 (2 fumbles, 2 interceptions), Kansas State - 2 (1 fumble, 1 interception)

Time of Possession: OSU - 19:11, Kansas State - 40:49

Third Down Conversions: OSU 4-of-9 for 44%, Kansas State 9-of-18 for 50%

Total Yards Gained: OSU – 575, Kansas State – 507

Not very good on our projections for last week.

We are still following our trends and predictions from back in September, right before the Texas A&M game on tempo and how many plays the Oklahoma State offense runs under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. They ran more plays at a higher tempo early on than Dana Holgorsen last season, and, in fact, almost reversed their numbers from the Texas A&M game a year ago. Monken's offense has used tempo to wear down several opponents and they are capable of going very fast. The number came down some against Kansas, but that was because the Cowboys were embarrassing the Jayhawks. Late in the game they also went almost exclusively to the run. Since then the numbers have been lower because other teams are trying to play keep away and the Cowboys are capable of scoring so fast and in very few plays. It is creating a different scenario than we envisioned in the early season. It is still a successful one.

Last Season Opponent - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opp. This Season Predictions - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opponent followed by Actual

Washington State - 81 - 71 ULL - 87 – 71

Troy - 76 - 76 Arizona - 84 – 72

Tulsa - 77 - 79 @Tulsa - 88 - 79 Actual - OSU 88, Tulsa 85

Texas A&M - 68 - 106 @Texas A&M - 78 - 81 Actual - OSU 95, A&M 74

@ULL - 87 - 83 Kansas - 91 - 62 Actual - OSU 76, Kansas 81

@Texas Tech - 81 - 83 @Texas - 80 - 72 Actual - OSU 68, Texas 89

Nebraska - 71 - 79 @Missouri - 88 - 84 Actual - OSU 81, Missouri 80

@Kansas State - 75 - 75 Baylor - 85 - 84 Actual - OSU 63, Baylor 105

@Texas - 75 - 70 Kansas State - 77 - 69 Actual - OSU 63, Kansas State 90

@Kansas - 86 - 66 @Texas Tech - 84 – 80

Oklahoma - 66 - 107 Oklahoma - 78 – 78

Alamo Bowl/Arizona - 88 - 61 2011 Bowl Game - ?

After week two Joseph Randle had virtually doubled up Jeremy Smith in yards per carry and touchdowns. The question begs, why wouldn't you just keep Randle in more and give him more carries?

Head coach Mike Gundy answered that question, in part, when he talked about Smith coming in to run on fresh legs. The other part of that answer is that Smith is given different circumstances to run the football. Smith gets the ball on a lot of the short yardage and goal line situations when defenses are stacked to stop the run. You can call those the tough yards if you like.

Our question is, at the end of the year will the disparity of yards per carry and touchdowns be the same, almost two-to-one that it is after two games?

I will say that it won't and here are my projections for the stat line of both players at the end of the regular season, not counting the bowl game.

I have also badly underestimated the total run production of Randle and Smith combined as it now appears that they will exceed my projections, possibly by a bunch.

Here goes:

Projection after week two:

Joseph Randle: 217 carries - 1,257 yards - 5.79 ypc - 17 TDs

Jeremy Smith: 111 carries – 584 yards - 5.26 ypc - 11 TDs

The current numbers are: Randle: 151 carries – 915 yards - 6.1 ypc - 18 TDs

Smith: 67 carries – 502 yards - 7.5 ypc - 7 TDs

It is very clear that these guys will finish much better than I anticipated. In fact, with his touchdowns last week Randle has climbed above our projection on touchdowns. That's a great one to top already. Jeremy Smith stayed at his same numbers while sitting out the Kansas State game. Check out those yards per carry averages as they have shot way past what I projected.

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