This week it is Iowa State on Friday as the Cowboys go for a win that will clinch at least a share of the Big 12 Championship. Now that is not what this team is aiming for, they want it all. That will have to wait until Dec. 3 unless something happens to OU the next two weeks. Fortunately, the Cowboys have stayed on a roll. We were on one with our projections on numbers and trends for several weeks nailing stats going into Missouri and Baylor. The last two weeks we have fallen off. This last week we hit a few, but missed on a bunch by a bunch.
For the Iowa State, game lets dwell on the Oklahoma State defense, which had it's best outing last Saturday in Lubbock with a shutout in that they did not allow any points and only 270 yards. Against Iowa State, they will see a team that is still trying to find it's way on offense and is leaning with the new starting quarterback in redshirt freshman Jared Barnett toward a zone-read dominated attack. This is a style of offense the Cowboys can play well against.
Barnett has been at quarterback the last four games and this is how the offense performed.
10/15 @ Missouri — Rush: 36-157-yds, Pass: 20-40-1 186-yds, Total: 343-yds, Pts: 17
10/22 Texas A&M — Rush: 33-125-yds, Pass: 16-40-1 180-yds, Total: 305-yds, Pts: 17
10/29 @ Tex. Tech — Rush: 67-368-yds, Pass: 14-26-0 144-yds, Total: 512-yds, Pts: 41
11/5 Kansas — Rush: 49-251-yds, Pass: 16-30-1 175-yds, Total: 426-yds, Pts: 13
11/18 OKLA. ST. — Rush: 43-164-yds, Pass: 15-34-2 172-yds, Total: 336-yds, Pts: 9
Sacks By: 5; Turnovers: 4 (2 fumbles, 2 interceptions)
We like the defense to flex some muscles in Iowa with the confidence built from the performance last week at Texas Tech. Big numbers in the defensive explosion categories of sacks and turnovers. The overall average per play is strong too with 4.36 yads per snap.
Okay, here is our look at last week. It was not very good with the exception on rushing yards and third downs.
Rushing Yards: OSU-187 Tech-112 — Actual: OSU-183 Tech-101
Passing Yards: OSU-362 Tech-384 — Actual: OSU-454 Tech-169
Total Yards: OSU-549 Tech-496 — Actual: OSU-637 Tech-270
Turnovers: OSU-0 Tech-3 (1 fumble, 2 interceptions) — Actual: OSU-2 Tech-3 (2 fum. 1 int)
3rd Down Conversions: OSU 7-11 Tech 6-13 — Actual: OSU 8-13 Tech 6-17
Time of Possession: OSU 29:28 Tech 30:32 — Actual: OSU 32:47 Tech 27:13
We are still following our trends and predictions from back in September, right before the Texas A&M game on tempo and how many plays the Oklahoma State offense runs under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. They ran more plays at a higher tempo early on than Dana Holgorsen last season, and, in fact, almost reversed their numbers from the Texas A&M game a year ago. Monken's offense has used tempo to wear down several opponents and they are capable of going very fast. The number came down some against Kansas, but that was because the Cowboys were embarrassing the Jayhawks. Late in the game they also went almost exclusively to the run. Since then the numbers have been lower because other teams are trying to play keep away and the Cowboys are capable of scoring so fast and in very few plays. It is creating a different scenario than we envisioned in the early season. It is still a successful one.
Last Season Opponent - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opp. This Season Predictions - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opponent followed by Actual
Washington State - 81 - 71 ULL - 87 – 71
Troy - 76 - 76 Arizona - 84 – 72
Tulsa - 77 - 79 @Tulsa - 88 - 79 Actual - OSU 88, Tulsa 85
Texas A&M - 68 - 106 @Texas A&M - 78 - 81 Actual - OSU 95, A&M 74
@ULL - 87 - 83 Kansas - 91 - 62 Actual - OSU 76, Kansas 81
@Texas Tech - 81 - 83 @Texas - 80 - 72 Actual - OSU 68, Texas 89
Nebraska - 71 - 79 @Missouri - 88 - 84 Actual - OSU 81, Missouri 80
@Kansas State - 75 - 75 Baylor - 85 - 84 Actual - OSU 63, Baylor 105
Baylor - 82 - 84 Kansas State - 77 - 69 Actual - OSU 63, Kansas State 90
@Texas - 75 - 70 @Texas Tech - 84 - 80 Actual - OSU 80, Texas Tech 74
@Kansas - 86 - 66 @Iowa State - 86 - 77
Oklahoma - 66 - 107 Oklahoma - 78 – 78
Alamo Bowl/Arizona - 88 - 61 2011 Bowl Game - ?
Head coach Mike Gundy answered that question, in part, when he talked about Smith coming in to run on fresh legs. The other part of that answer is that Smith is given different circumstances to run the football. Smith gets the ball on a lot of the short yardage and goal line situations when defenses are stacked to stop the run. You can call those the tough yards if you like.
Our question is, at the end of the year will the disparity of yards per carry and touchdowns be the same, almost two-to-one that it is after two games?
I will say that it won't and here are my projections for the stat line of both players at the end of the regular season, not counting the bowl game.
I have also badly underestimated the total run production of Randle and Smith combined as it now appears that they will exceed my projections, possibly by a bunch.
Projection after week two:
Joseph Randle: 217 carries - 1,257-yards - 5.79-ypc - 17 TDs
Jeremy Smith: 111 carries - 584-yards - 5.26-ypc - 11 TDs
The current numbers are:
Randle: 169 carries - 993-yards - 5.9-ypc - 21 TDs
Smith: 72 carries - 515-yards - 7.2-ypc - 7 TDs
It is very clear that these guys will finish much better than I anticipated. In fact, with his touchdowns last week Randle has climbed above our projection on touchdowns. That's a great one to top already. Jeremy Smith stayed at his same numbers while sitting out the Kansas State game. Check out those yards per carry averages as they have shot way past what I projected.