My next idea was compare last year's game and break it down, which I did, and my comparison is to this season's Oklahoma games with Texas Tech and Baylor because those are the two game Oklahoma lost. Here we go with the numbers from those three games.
2010 OU at OSU; 2011 Texas Tech at OU; 2011 OU at Baylor
Rushes-Yards: 45-120 23-122; 43-120 25-124; 36-158 38-131
Passing A-C-I: 62-37-3 43-28-3; 53-34-0 55-30-1; 51-36-1 35-22-0
Passing Yards: 468 257; 452 412; 447 485
Total Offense: 107-588 66-379; 96-572 80-536; 87-605 73-616
Redzone #-score: 7-7 5-5; 5-6 3-4; 5-5 4-5
3rd Downs: 16-27 5-15; 6-18 5-17; 6-14 3-13
Return Yards: 117 228; 122 211; 176 73
Sacks By: 0-0 2-18; 0-0 3-26; 2-13 2-13
Looking at all three of these games there are just two common denominators and those are passing and yards and total offense. Even the red zone skills don't command as high a priority at offense yards. You must have more passing yards and more total yards.
Oh, how I wish we didn't have to do this, but for Iowa State we focused on the young quarterback after the change in Ames to redshirt freshman Jared Barnett. We examined the Iowa State offense with Barnett at quarterback since he took over for former starter Steele Jantz and then we projected how Oklahoma State would do on defense against Barnett and the Cyclones offense. Here were the four previous games by Iowa State on offense.
10/15 @ Missouri Rush: 36-157-yds Pass: 20-40-1 186-yds Total: 343-yds Pts: 17
10/22 Texas A&M Rush: 33-125-yds Pass: 16-40-1 180-yds Total: 305-yds Pts: 17
10/29 @ Tex. Tech Rush: 67-368-yds Pass: 14-26-0 144-yds Total: 512-yds Pts: 41
11/5 Kansas Rush: 49-251-yds Pass: 16-30-1 175-yds Total: 426-yds Pts: 13
11/18 OKLA.ST. Rush: 43-164-yds Pass: 34-15-2 172-yds Total: 336-yds Pts:9 Sacks By: 5 Turnovers: 4 (2 fumbles, 2 interceptions)
11/18 OKLA.ST Rush: 41-192-yds Pass: 60-31-2 376-yds Total: 568-yds Pts: 37 (2 OT) Sacks By: 0 Turnovers: 2 (both interceptions)
We are still following our trends and predictions from back in September, right before the Texas A&M game on tempo and how many plays the Oklahoma State offense runs under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. They ran more plays at a higher tempo early on than Dana Holgorsen last season, and, in fact, almost reversed their numbers from the Texas A&M game a year ago. Monken's offense has used tempo to wear down several opponents and they are capable of going very fast. The number came down some against Kansas, but that was because the Cowboys were embarrassing the Jayhawks. Late in the game they also went almost exclusively to the run. Since then the numbers have been lower because other teams are trying to play keep away and the Cowboys are capable of scoring so fast and in very few plays. It is creating a different scenario than we envisioned in the early season. It is still a successful one. However, it wasn't against Iowa State. Allowing Iowa State 101 offensive snaps even in a double overtime game is not very good.
Last Season Opponent - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opp. This Season Predictions - # Plays by OSU - # Plays by Opponent followed by Actual
Washington State - 81 - 71 ULL - 87 – 71
Troy - 76 - 76 Arizona - 84 – 72
Tulsa - 77 - 79 @Tulsa - 88 - 79 Actual - OSU 88, Tulsa 85
Texas A&M - 68 - 106 @Texas A&M - 78 - 81 Actual - OSU 95, A&M 74
@ULL - 87 - 83 Kansas - 91 - 62 Actual - OSU 76, Kansas 81
@Texas Tech - 81 - 83 @Texas - 80 - 72 Actual - OSU 68, Texas 89
Nebraska - 71 - 79 @Missouri - 88 - 84 Actual - OSU 81, Missouri 80
@Kansas State - 75 - 75 Baylor - 85 - 84 Actual - OSU 63, Baylor 105
Baylor - 82 - 84 Kansas State - 77 - 69 Actual - OSU 63, Kansas State 90
@Texas - 75 - 70 @Texas Tech - 84 - 80 Actual - OSU 80, Texas Tech 74
@Kansas - 86 - 66 @Iowa State - 86 - 77 Actual - OSU 76, Iowa State 101
Oklahoma - 66 - 107 Oklahoma - 78 – 78
Alamo Bowl/Arizona - 88 - 61 2011 Bowl Game - ?
Head coach Mike Gundy answered that question, in part, when he talked about Smith coming in to run on fresh legs. The other part of that answer is that Smith is given different circumstances to run the football. Smith gets the ball on a lot of the short yardage and goal line situations when defenses are stacked to stop the run. You can call those the tough yards if you like.
Our question is, at the end of the year will the disparity of yards per carry and touchdowns be the same, almost two-to-one that it is after two games?
I will say that it won't and here are my projections for the stat line of both players at the end of the regular season, not counting the bowl game.
I have also badly underestimated the total run production of Randle and Smith combined as it now appears that they will exceed my projections, possibly by a bunch.
Projection after week two:
Joseph Randle: 217 carries - 1,257-yards - 5.79-ypc - 17 TDs
Jeremy Smith: 111 carries - 584-yards - 5.26-ypc - 11 TDs
The current numbers are:
Randle: 179 carries - 1,042-yards - 5.8-ypc - 21 TDs
Smith: 80 carries - 526-yards - 6.6-ypc - 7 TDs
It is very clear that Randle will finish much better than I anticipated in scoring, but in the other categories we are going to be close. A little short on number of carries, but we could be right on the yards-per-carry. We'll see what happens in the Bedlam game on Saturday.