Playing Percentages on the Postseason

NORMAN, Okla. -- There's no doubt the Sooners (31-13 overall, 10-9 Big 12), one of many people's favorites to return to Omaha in 2011, are destined for the postseason, but just how will their potential route to the College World Series shape up?

Here are the potential postseason opportunities and their chances of happening with just 11 regular season games remaining followed by the Big 12 Conference tournament:

Selection: National seed
Percentage Chance: 10 percent
How it happens: The Sooners must likely sweep their last 11, including six conference games, then take the Big 12 tourney. Not only that, but they must also get help throughout the remainder of the conference schedule. With Texas and Texas A&M tied at 15-6 and sitting four games ahead of OU, the Sooners need one of those two to sweep the other and then to lose a game in their other remaining conference series. Assuming Oklahoma State doesn't sweep either of its remaining two series, that would put OU in second in the Big 12. Then, if the Sooners can get some national help with teams like Cal State Fullerton, Southern Mississippi and Georgia Tech, among others, not finishing quite as strong, they could be in business. But it's definitely the longest shot of the three possibilities.

Selection: Regional host, but not a national seed
Percentage Chance: 50 percent
How it happens: The Sooners must win their final three series, one each against conference foes Kansas and Baylor sandwiched around a four-game non-conference set vs. New Mexico. One must be a sweep. Then, the Sooners must have a decent showing in the conference tournament, meaning finish in at least the semifinals (their bracket final). Add that all together and OU's record would be at least 40-18 on selection day. Throw in at least pair of series sweeps or a trip to the conference championship game, and it's even better than that and almost sure odds of hosting.

Selection: Neither a national seed, nor regional host
Percentage Chance: 25 percent
How it happens: The Sooners lose any of their remaining three series and finish fourth or worse with a major gap between them and the top three in the conference. If that's the case, they are destined for a No. 2 seed and trip on the road to another regional site. An early two-and-out in the Big 12 tourney would almost certainly guarantee them a road trip as well. Those scenarios would mean the Sooners would finish the regular season under the 40-win plateau, a mark they must get to if they wish to host.

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