Why the Beavs have a chance against Stanford

Let me tell you why I think Oregon State has a good chance to knock off number one Stanford at Maples Pavilion on Thursday, the 26th day of February.

Granted this is not the same Stanford team as last year’s version, but let me refresh your memory a bit thanks to OSU’s official athletic website, osubeavers.com.

The Beavers held a 33-23 lead at the half in Stanford last year. At the 12:18 mark they held a 15-point lead. OSU then went on a shooting drought, missing 18-of-21 field goal attempts. Within a three-minute stretch in the second half Matt Lottich scored 13 points and hit three three-pointers to bring the Cardinal within three.

In the final 7:12 of the game Lottich scored 18 of his career-high 23 points in addition to hitting two free throws with 1:22 to go to give Stanford a 54-53 lead, their first of the game. Stanford went on to win a close contest 57-54.

Fast-forward to this year, January 29, Gill Coliseum. The then number two team in the country, Stanford beat OSU 62-48. A deeper look at the game shows that Oregon State committed 22 turnovers, this past Saturday they only had seven, one in the second half, much of that second half was played against a press by Arizona.

Let’s say OSU cuts that number in half and turns the ball over 11 times in the game. For arguments sake we’ll say OSU converts five of those 11 possessions for 11 points (one could be a three-pointer). That makes it a three-point game.

David Lucas had one of his poorer performances of the season hitting only 5-of-14 from the field. Give him 7-of-14, 50%, that would still be under his season average of 55.6% for field goal percentage, but worth four extra points, Beavers by one.

Also coming up short in the game was junior guard J.S. Nash. He only took two shots from the field and didn’t score at all. He averages 11 points per game. Give him just five and the Beavers are up six now.

Angelo Tsagarakis only had one shot in eight minutes, a three-point miss. Anybody that has seen this guy plays knows he is capable of hitting three or more threes in any given game. I swear every shot he takes looks like it is going in.

The last telling stat I am going to give you is that other than Lucas and Chris Stephens, the Beavers scored only nine points. From watching this team I know they have more in them than a performance like that, which is why I think OSU has a good chance to be the first team to knock Stanford this season.

Jake Schubert can be reached at jake.schubert@beaverfootball.com.

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