Be wary of upsets this weekend as weeks seven and eight are infamous for the doggies to crash the party. Injuries are starting to add up for some teams and complacency will sneak up on others. Look for teams that are undervalued or overvalued right now. Central Michigan is 6-0 ATS right now and East Carolina is 5-0. Teams that have been winless against the spread so far this year are Fresno State and San Diego State at 0-5, with Louisiana Tech and Marshall coming in at 0-4. Now on to the picks.
CAL #11 (5-1) -8.5 @ Washington State (4-2).
I love the Bears from Berkley in this game even though they haven't won in Pullman since 1979. Both teams have played at Reser Stadium this year and most would agree the talent level between these two teams is very wide.
This is the best defensive team that Jed Tedford has had at CAL. I would expect them to flex that muscle against a Wazzu offense that has overachieved against weaker opponents. The Bears offense isn't too shabby either averaging 45 points in their last three games. They have athletes and speedsters at all the skill positions.
CAL is clicking on all cylinders now since the Tennessee game winning five straight and looks like the best team in the Pac-10 right now. The Cougars won't even have to "Coug It" as Cal will just ctreat them like a bunch of Terrible Terry's misfits. This is my no nonsense big play of the week. The hot superior undervalued team over the inferior overvalued team. I just punched a few buttons on my computer and what do you know $2200 will bring me $2000 Saturday via Antigua.
Oregon State (2-3) @ University of Washington (4-2) UNDER
I'm thinking a replay of last week's OSU game vs. WSU contest. A sloppy, turnover filled game, with ineffective red zone play, and lots of field goals with maybe some rain to boot. Remember the 2005 game in Seattle that finished 18-10?
One trend of note is the 7-1 record that UW has in the last eight games they were favored. UW is favorite in Saturday's game at -9.5. The Beavers just can't seem to get into the end zone these days, so I figure getting over 46 is quite a bit tougher by threes than sevens. Thankfully, I've got my handy dandy calculator. Hell, the UNDER is probably the Beavers best chance to win the game outright.
OSU 19 UW 17. Five field goals and two safeties for our beloved Beavs works for me! Bet is $660 to win $600.
A few rules of thumb as I wind down this week's Wiseguy Weekly.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Never pay for picks.
- And don't believe it when the wiseguys tell you it's the "Lock of the Year." There is no such thing. It's just a false sense of reality that they would like you to perceive. This perception then falls into what is really deception.
One of the good guy wiseguys, signing off. BLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED IT!
BeavaBleeda can be reached at BeavaBleeda@beaverfootball.com.