Here is a breakdown of who USF is recruiting off of other team's commit lists. Below is the percentages of how likely, or unlikely a switch to the Bulls would be.
Expect: 75% or better
Good shot: 50%-75%
Doubtful: 25%-50%Highly unlikely: Less than 25%
DE Corey Liuget (Hialeah HS) 6'3, 270:
On a weekend visit to Illinois Liuget gave his commitment, but is still taking visits. He has taken 3 visits and has 1 scheduled for Rutgers on the 14th of January. There has been lots of talk between him and USF about a visit, expect him in possibly the last weekend in January, although an exact date has not been set.
Probability of Switching: I think he sticks to Illinois. I might be the only one with this opinion, that's just a gut feeling. Even if he takes a visit to USF I think it's more of a courtesy because the Bulls have been on him since day one. It is "highly unlikely" that Corey Liuget is a Bull on signing day.
S Karnell Hatcher (Atlantic Delray HS) 6'2, 190:
Early in the season Karnell Hatcher committed to LSU. A visit to Michigan may have caused him to start re-thinking his decision, then when DC Bo Pelini left LSU for the Nebraska job Hatcher announced he was a soft verbal.
Probability of Switching: Before his visit to USF, I would call him a long shot, but with his teammate committing that weekend, (John Lejiste), it opened his eyes to the opportunity of staying close to home and starting a winning tradition in Tampa. I would say that USF has a " good shot" at Hatcher switching his commitment to USF by signing day.
LB Sean Spence (Miami Northwestern HS) 6'1, 200:
Spence is one of several players from MNW who committed early on to UM. He's considered the top outside backer in the state and helped his team to their second straight state championship.
Probability of Switching: On November 30th Spence took an official visit to USF, loved it, but will be a Cane in a few short days (he's an early enrollee). I say it is "highly unlikely" of a switch to USF.
CB George Baker (Bishop Carroll HS) 5'11, 168:
The departure Auburn's defensive coordinator Will Muschamp caused Baker to look at a couple other options. He committed to AU back in Auburn and is has taken a visit to Rutgers, next weekend he'll be at UCF. Then on January 25th he has a visit set with USF.
Probability of Switching: The fact that he is taking two visits to Florida schools shows he could be looking to stay in state, if so USF will be his school, unless UM makes a late run at him. That's why I say USF has a "good shot" at landing Baker by signing day.
QB DeRon Furr (Carver HS) 6'3, 217:
Early on DeRon was one of the top 3 recruits for USF at the QB position. Then he committed to Auburn back in June. Everything was quiet, the staff was not recruiting him, that was until Auburn fired their offensive coordinator. Now Furr is looking at four different schools, 3 of them recruiting him as a QB (FSU as a safety).
Probability of Switching: This is a tough one because he's not the number one QB on the board, although he does fit the ATH mold that USF uses when recruiting quarterbacks. I think it is "doubtful" that Furr ends up being a part of the Bulls '08 class. It's a little late and if the Bulls land B.J. Daniels (#1 QB prospect) then I don't see room for Furr.
WR Davon Johnson (Booker T. HS) 5'11, 165:
Although he's under 6' foot Johnson was one of the top WR prospects on USF's board until he committed to UM early in the season. However USF has not stopped recruiting him ad he's coming in for an official visit on January 18th.
Probability of Switching: Davon Johnson is committed to UM and he's committed to bringing that program back to the top. Unless there is a drastic coaching change it is "highly unlikely" that he switches his commitment to any school. Expect him to sign with the U in February.
C Padric Scott (Lincoln HS) 6'2, 290:
In July, Scott made a commitment to Minnesota, a decision he may have made prematurely. Since his decision he has visited Iowa, Stanford and will make his last visit to USF on January 11th.
Probability of Switching: Not only is Padric visiting in January, but he has already made two unofficial trips to Tampa during the college season. The Bulls staff has done a thorough job in recruiting Scott, who I "expect" to make a switch from Minnesota to USF by signing day.
Rashard Reid (St. Augustine HS) 5'10, 180:
In August Reid committed to Georgia Tech, during the year the USF staff never totally backed off his recruitment. It paid off because at the end of the year the GT staff was in turmoil after the firing of Chan Gailey. A new staff is in place, but Reid has scheduled a visit to USF for the last week in January.
Probability of Switching: There is a visit scheduled, showing up for that visit is the key part. The visit is still a month away and a lot can happen. I don't have a great feel on this one but I do think USF has a "good shot" at getting a switch.
This is one of the weirdest recruiting scenarios that I've seen this year. The on-off-on-off-and now apparently back on recruitment of Patrick Nixon is harder for me to solve than multiplying mixed fractions (I'm really bad at math). He's denied to me that he committed to Illinois and then less than a week later he made another commitment, or maybe it was the first, to Illinois. The latest we are hearing is that a visit to USF will happen on January 11th.
Probability of Switching: With all that has happen with Nixon, I wouldn't be surprised if this visit doesn't actually happen. However, if it does and he enjoys himself then I "expect" him to make a change to USF.