The Bootleg's 2011
Graduation Rate Analysis
Once
again, as part of our
never-ending effort to contribute to the debate surrounding the appropriate
long-term goals for collegiate athletics, The Bootleg is proud to
present our 10th annual analysis of student-athlete graduation rates.
Many thanks to our dedicated staff for producing this outstanding overview,
which is often mentioned as being among the most important information our site
disseminates each year.
This
year's detailed analysis breaks down the graduation rate
statistics for the three "major" collegiate sports - football, basketball,
and baseball. For comparison purposes, we also take a look at overall graduation
rates for all student-athletes.
The Bootleg's analysis identifies the top-10 and bottom-10 graduation rates for all of the major programs in each sport. In addition, we are providing the football and basketball graduation rates for each of the six major conferences, along with the grad rates for selected other schools.
As part of our duty to inform the interested, but often in-denial public, we have also presented an analysis of the "institutions of higher learning" that bear witness to the biggest "graduation rate gaps" in each sport - that is, the biggest gaps between the student-athlete graduation rate and the overall student body graduation rate. The first time The Bootleg ever published the gap information, back in about 1995, the largest gap in Division I football was experienced at the University of Washington, a shameful and embarrassing situtation the Huskies, as you will see below, have improved upon dramatically since. (Props to them!) UCLA now wears the infamous national crown, with USC and California placing among the national top-five in terms of biggest gaps. Incredible! Cal and their main man Monty can proudly lay claim to possessing the single-largest graduation gap of any Division I basketball program. Go Bears! USC grabs the baseball crown, producing the biggest gap in the nation in that sport! Pat Haden, are you out there?
Our analysis uses the
"Graduation Success Rates" (GSRs) from the NCAA's 2010 graduation rate report.
The NCAA invented Graduation Success Rates a few years ago in an effort to make
its graduation numbers look better. It worked. The overall GSR for all Division
I athletes is 15 percentage points higher than the graduation rates calculated
under the old method (the Department of Education's "federal graduation rate").
Despite the obvious manipulation of the numbers, the new Graduation Success
Rates have been widely accepted, so we are using them here. The Graduation
Success Rate is the percentage of athletes who graduated within six years after
starting college. Outgoing transfers do not hurt the GSR, so long as the
departing player was in good academic standing. GSRs are "four class" graduation
rates - that is, combined graduation rates for the four most recent classes for
which information has been reported.
FOOTBALL
| Football Graduation Rates: Pac-10 | |
|---|---|
| Stanford | 86% |
| Washington | 82% |
| Cal | 65% |
| Arizona St. | 63% |
| USC | 61% |
| Washington St. | 60% |
| Oregon St. | 56% |
| Oregon | 54% |
| UCLA | 52% |
| Arizona | 48% |
Stanford once again leads the Pac-10 in football graduation rates, as has been the case for all ten years of our analysis. Washington moved up nicely, from 69% last year to 82% this year, placing a strong second. Eight of the Pac-10 schools reported football grad rates that were below the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) average of 67%. Arizona once again brings up the rear. Incoming Pac-10 members Colorado and Utah had football grad rates of 59% and 62%, which would put them in the middle of the pack.
| Football Graduation Rates: Big 10 | |
|---|---|
| Northwestern | 95% |
| Penn St. | 84% |
| Iowa | 79% |
| Illinois | 76% |
| Michigan | 72% |
| Indiana | 69% |
| Wisconsin | 65% |
| Ohio St. | 63% |
| Purdue | 60% |
| Minnesota | 56% |
| Michigan St. | 55% |
Northwestern leads the Big 10 once again, with Penn State continuing to hold on to the second position. Minnesota barely climbed out of the bottom spot in the conference, passing Michigan State by just one percentage point.
| Football Graduation Rates: SEC | |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 89% |
| Georgia | 68% |
| Florida | 67% |
| Alabama | 67% |
| LSU | 67% |
| Mississippi St. | 64% |
| Auburn | 63% |
| Kentucky | 63% |
| Mississippi | 61% |
| South Carolina | 57% |
| Arkansas | 55% |
| Tennessee | 53% |
Vanderbilt continues to be the class of the SEC in football grad rates. At least they led the SEC in something. Georgia somehow has managed to improve its football graduation rate from 41% to 68% in just three years, going from the bottom of the conference to the # 2 position, which is either a cause for commendation or a reason to wonder about the data, depending on your point of view.
| Football Graduation Rates: Big 12 | |
|---|---|
| Missouri | 71% |
| Texas Tech | 69% |
| Kansas St. | 69% |
| Nebraska | 68% |
| Baylor | 64% |
| Iowa St. | 64% |
| Colorado | 59% |
| Oklahoma St. | 59% |
| Texas A&M | 57% |
| Kansas | 56% |
| Texas | 49% |
| Oklahoma | 44% |
For the first time, Missouri leads the Big 12 in football graduation rates, passing last year's leader, Nebraska. However, leading the Big 12 in graduation rates isn't such a big accomplishment. Missouri's 71% grad rate ranks only 30th in the FBS. Oklahoma and Texas have some of the worst football graduation rates in the nation. Oklahoma's is the worst among all BCS schools.
| Football Graduation Rates: ACC | |
|---|---|
| Duke | 95% |
| Boston College | 90% |
| Wake Forest | 81% |
| Miami | 81% |
| Virginia Tech | 79% |
| North Carolina | 75% |
| Virginia | 75% |
| Florida St. | 64% |
| Maryland | 64% |
| Clemson | 60% |
| North Carolina St. | 56% |
| Georgia Tech | 49% |
The ACC continues to report the best football graduation rates of any BCS conference. Of course, the ACC also has more private schools than any other BCS conference, and the private schools have the top four graduation rates in the conference.
| Football Graduation Rates: Big East | |
|---|---|
| Rutgers | 88% |
| Cincinnati | 81% |
| Connecticut | 77% |
| Syracuse | 76% |
| West Virginia | 72% |
| Pittsburgh | 69% |
| Louisville | 63% |
| South Florida | 46% |
Last year's Big East leader, Connecticut, dropped to third place. The new leader is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Rutgers. Rutgers has raised its graduation rate from a poor 55% to a very strong 88% in just three years. That's remarkable.
| Football Graduation Rates: Selected Others | |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 96% |
| Navy | 92% |
| TCU | 71% |
| Boise St. | 65% |
| BYU | 62% |
| Utah | 62% |
TCU and Boise State raised their grad rates by 6 and 7 percentage points respectively this year.
| Top 10 Football Grad Rates: FBS | |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 96% |
| Duke | 95% |
| Northwestern | 95% |
| Rice | 93% |
| Navy | 92% |
| Boston College | 90% |
| Vanderbilt | 89% |
| Rutgers | 88% |
| Stanford | 86% |
| Air Force | 86% |
Army, Penn State, and Miami (Ohio) dropped out of the Top 10 this year. Rutgers is making its first appearance on the top 10 list, and Rice returns to the top 10 for the first time since our 2006 analysis.
| Bottom 10 Football Grad Rates: FBS | |
|---|---|
| San Jose St. | 42% |
| Oklahoma | 44% |
| South Florida | 46% |
| Hawaii | 46% |
| Florida International | 46% |
| Arizona | 48% |
| Texas | 49% |
| Georgia Tech | 49% |
| Houston | 51% |
| Eastern Michigan | 51% |
The BCS schools with the worst graduation rates are Oklahoma, Arizona, Texas, and Georgia Tech. All of them were in the bottom 10 last year as well. Oregon managed to climb out of the bottom 10 this year.
| Grad Rates for African American Football Players: Selected Schools | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| African American | Caucasian | Difference | |
| Auburn | 49% | 100% | -51% |
| North Carolina St. | 45% | 89% | -44% |
| Oregon | 41% | 76% | -35% |
| Arkansas | 45% | 79% | -34% |
| Colorado | 49% | 81% | -32% |
| Georgia Tech | 43% | 75% | -32% |
| Mississippi | 55% | 85% | -30% |
| Texas | 38% | 66% | -28% |
| UCLA | 39% | 67% | -28% |
| USC | 51% | 77% | -26% |
The racial gap in graduation rates at Auburn is little short of stunning. Auburn graduated 100% of its white players over a four year period, but only 49% of its African-American players. That's an extreme case, but there are plenty of other schools with big racial gaps.
| Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between Football
Players and All Students Major Programs (Difference of 15% or more) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Football Players | All Students | Difference | |
| UCLA | 52% | 89% | -37% |
| Texas | 49% | 78% | -29% |
| Georgia Tech | 49% | 78% | -29% |
| USC | 61% | 86% | -25% |
| Cal | 65% | 89% | -24% |
| Texas A&M | 57% | 78% | -21% |
| Michigan St. | 55% | 75% | -20% |
| Oklahoma | 44% | 62% | -18% |
| Virginia | 75% | 93% | -18% |
| Clemson | 60% | 77% | -17% |
| Maryland | 64% | 81% | -17% |
| BYU | 62% | 78% | -16% |
| Michigan | 72% | 88% | -16% |
| Wisconsin | 65% | 80% | -15% |
| North Carolina St. | 56% | 71% | -15% |
| For an explanation of the calculation of
these "graduation rate gaps," see the note at the end of the analysis. | |||
UCLA easily
has the worst "graduation rate gap" in major college football. Most UCLA
students can be reasonably confident of getting a degree. But football players,
not so much. Cal and USC aren't a whole lot better, with significant gaps
between football player grad rates and student body grad rates.
BASKETBALL
| Basketball Graduation Rates: Pac-10 | |
|---|---|
| Stanford | 80% |
| Oregon | 79% |
| UCLA | 70% |
| Oregon St. | 64% |
| Arizona St. | 60% |
| Washington St. | 44% |
| Washington | 44% |
| USC | 42% |
| Cal | 30% |
| Arizona | 20% |
Stanford is back on the top of the basketball graduation rate list this year. Stanford's 80% basketball graduation rate is its best in several years, as the rolling four-year average no longer reflects the early departures of Casey Jacobsen and Curtis Borchardt. (Stanford's grad rate does reflect Josh Childress' early departure for the NBA; the Lopez twins are not yet included.) Incoming conference schools Colorado and Utah have basketball grad rates of 43% and 67%. Arizona has the worst basketball graduation rate of any major basketball program in the nation.
| Basketball Graduation Rates: Big 10 | |
|---|---|
| Illinois | 100% |
| Northwestern | 90% |
| Penn St. | 86% |
| Wisconsin | 70% |
| Purdue | 67% |
| Ohio St. | 64% |
| Indiana | 62% |
| Iowa | 55% |
| Michigan St. | 50% |
| Minnesota | 42% |
| Michigan | 36% |
Congratulations to Illinois, which reported a 100% grad rate for the first time. On the other end of the scale, Michigan is spending its second straight year at the bottom of the Big 10, slipping all the way down to 36%.
| Basketball Graduation Rates: SEC | |
|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 93% |
| Alabama | 75% |
| Mississippi | 64% |
| South Carolina | 53% |
| LSU | 50% |
| Florida | 44% |
| Kentucky | 44% |
| Mississippi St. | 43% |
| Tennessee | 40% |
| Georgia | 36% |
| Auburn | 27% |
| Arkansas | 22% |
Florida's basketball grad rate dropped from 89% two years ago to 44% this year. Arkansas also is falling fast, from 58% last year all the way down to 22%.
| Basketball Graduation Rates: Big 12 | |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma St. | 92% |
| Nebraska | 82% |
| Kansas | 80% |
| Texas A&M | 64% |
| Oklahoma | 55% |
| Missouri | 44% |
| Texas Tech | 44% |
| Colorado | 43% |
| Texas | 42% |
| Kansas St. | 40% |
| Baylor | 38% |
| Iowa St. | 35% |
Kansas has improved its graduation rate from 45% to 80% in three years. The Big 12 has a new last-place school, with Iowa State replacing Colorado at the bottom.
| Basketball Graduation Rates: ACC | |
|---|---|
| Wake Forest | 100% |
| Boston College | 88% |
| North Carolina | 88% |
| Duke | 83% |
| Virginia Tech | 75% |
| Florida St. | 73% |
| Miami | 73% |
| Clemson | 71% |
| North Carolina St. | 60% |
| Virginia | 36% |
| Georgia Tech | 36% |
| Maryland | 31% |
Wake Forest has posted at least six consecutive years with a 100% basketball grad rate. Kudos to Wake. Maryland's 31% graduation rate is an embarrassment, but at least Maryland cracked double figures for the first time in five years. Clemson has gone from 29% to 71% in two years.
| Basketball Graduation Rates: Big East | |
|---|---|
| Villanova | 100% |
| Notre Dame | 100% |
| Marquette | 91% |
| Providence | 80% |
| Georgetown | 78% |
| Rutgers | 78% |
| West Virginia | 71% |
| St. John's | 70% |
| Seton Hall | 69% |
| DePaul | 67% |
| Pittsburgh | 64% |
| Syracuse | 54% |
| Cincinnati | 53% |
| South Florida | 50% |
| Louisville | 50% |
| Connecticut | 31% |
For the fifth straight year, Connecticut has the worst basketball graduation rate in the Big East. Connecticut also has one of the worst grad rates in the entire nation.
| Basketball Grad Rates: Selected Others | |
|---|---|
| BYU | 100% |
| Xavier | 92% |
| Butler | 83% |
| Richmond | 83% |
| Gonzaga | 73% |
| St. Mary's | 69% |
| Memphis | 58% |
| San Diego St. | 58% |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 56% |
| Temple | 33% |
BYU, Butler, and Richmond has good years on the court and in the classroom.
| Top 10 Basketball Grad Rates: Major Programs | |
|---|---|
| Illinois | 100% |
| Wake Forest | 100% |
| Villanova | 100% |
| BYU | 100% |
| Notre Dame | 100% |
| Utah St. | 100% |
| Vanderbilt | 93% |
| Oklahoma St. | 92% |
| Xavier | 92% |
| Marquette | 91% |
Illinois and Villanova moved up to 100% this year, joining four other schools that repeated last year's 100% performance.
| Bottom 10 Basketball Grad Rates: Major Programs | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 20% | |
| Arkansas | 22% | |
| Auburn | 27% | |
| Cal | 30% | |
| Connecticut | 31% | |
| Maryland | 31% | |
| Temple | 33% | |
| Iowa St. | 35% | |
| Georgia | 36% | |
| Georgia Tech | 36% | |
| Michigan | 36% | |
| Virginia | 36% | |
Cal is in the bottom 10 in basketball grad rates for the third straight year. Maryland, Arizona, Georgia, and Connecticut also repeated in the bottom 10 this year. Arizona finally made it all the way to the bottom, replacing Maryland in the cellar.
| Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between Basketball
Players and All Students Major Programs (Difference of 35% or more) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Basketball Players | All Students | Difference | |
| Cal | 30% | 89% | -59% |
| Virginia | 36% | 93% | -57% |
| Michigan | 36% | 88% | -52% |
| Maryland | 31% | 81% | -50% |
| Connecticut | 31% | 76% | -45% |
| USC | 42% | 86% | -44% |
| Georgia Tech | 36% | 78% | -42% |
| Georgia | 36% | 78% | -42% |
| Arizona | 20% | 57% | -37% |
| Auburn | 27% | 64% | -37% |
| Florida | 44% | 81% | -37% |
| Texas | 42% | 78% | -36% |
| Arkansas | 22% | 58% | -36% |
| Baylor | 38% | 73% | -35% |
| For an explanation of the calculation of
these "graduation rate gaps," see the note at the end of the analysis. | |||
Cal has the
worst "graduation rate gap" among all major basketball programs. This is not a
surprise, given that Cal finished second on this list for the last three years,
behind Maryland. With Maryland improving somewhat, Cal finds itself with the
worst grad rate gap between basketball players and regular students.
BASEBALL
| Baseball Graduation Rates: Pac-10 | |
|---|---|
| Stanford | 100% |
| Cal | 88% |
| Washington | 84% |
| UCLA | 68% |
| Washington St. | 53% |
| USC | 44% |
| Oregon St. | 43% |
| Arizona St. | 43% |
| Arizona | 28% |
| Oregon | new team |
Stanford reported a 100% baseball graduation rate for the third straight year. The "University" of Arizona pulled off an appalling, but impressive hat trick, with the Pac 10's worst graduation rate in football, basketball, and baseball.
| Baseball Graduation Rates: Selected Others | |
|---|---|
| Rice | 92% |
| North Carolina | 89% |
| Clemson | 83% |
| Georgia Tech | 83% |
| Florida St. | 81% |
| Division I average | 70% |
| Florida | 67% |
| South Carolina | 64% |
| Long Beach St. | 63% |
| Georgia | 63% |
| Miami | 55% |
| LSU | 54% |
| Nebraska | 48% |
| Texas | 43% |
| Fresno St. | 42% |
| Cal State Fullerton | 34% |
Georgia Tech, which is in the bottom 10 in football and basketball, does much better in baseball. Texas continues to have one of the worst graduation rates of any major baseball program, down there with the Cal State schools.
| Top 10 Baseball Grad Rates: Major Programs | |
|---|---|
| Stanford | 100% |
| Boston College | 100% |
| U. of San Diego | 100% |
| Notre Dame | 100% |
| Virginia | 100% |
| Wake Forest | 100% |
| Duke | 96% |
| Southern Mississippi | 96% |
| Iowa | 95% |
| Northwestern | 95% |
| Vanderbilt | 95% |
| Virginia Tech | 95% |
Graduation rates in baseball are a few percentage points higher than in football or basketball. Perhaps that's partly because the minor leagues are available as an option for baseball players who really don't belong in college.
| Bottom 10 Baseball Grad Rates: Major Programs | |
|---|---|
| Arizona | 28% |
| Cal State Fullerton | 34% |
| Texas Tech | 41% |
| Fresno St. | 42% |
| Texas | 43% |
| Arizona St. | 43% |
| Oregon St. | 43% |
| USC | 44% |
| North Carolina St. | 45% |
| Nebraska | 48% |
| Mississippi | 48% |
After four straight years with the worst baseball graduation rate of any major program, Cal State Fullerton has edged out of the bottom spot. Arizona has fallen into last place. Remarkably, and a fact we would hope Arizona taxpayers would note, U-of-A! also has the worst graduation rate of all major basketball programs and the second-worst graduation rate of all BCS football programs.
| Biggest Difference in Grad Rates Between Baseball
Players and All Students Major Programs (Difference of 20% or more) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball Players | All Students | Difference | |
| USC | 44% | 86% | -42% |
| Texas | 43% | 78% | -35% |
| Arizona | 28% | 57% | -29% |
| North Carolina St. | 45% | 71% | -26% |
| Miami | 55% | 77% | -22% |
| UCLA | 68% | 89% | -21% |
| Texas A&M | 58% | 78% | -20% |
| For an explanation of the calculation of
these "graduation rate gaps," see the note at the end of the analysis. | |||
USC and
Texas both showed up on all three "graduation rate gap" lists - football,
basketball, and baseball. The worst "graduation rate gap" in each of those three
sports belongs to a different Pac 10 school - UCLA has the worst graduation rate
gap in football, Cal has the worst gap in basketball, and USC has the worst gap
in baseball. Would Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott care to comment? Mr.
Scott is a very sharp guy and must be reading these statistics...and
wincing.
ALL
STUDENT-ATHLETES
| Grad Rates for All Athletes: Pac-10 | |
|---|---|
| Stanford | 94% |
| Washington | 87% |
| Cal | 81% |
| UCLA | 79% |
| USC | 78% |
| Arizona St. | 76% |
| Oregon | 76% |
| Oregon St. | 76% |
| Washington St. | 74% |
| Arizona | 65% |
Incoming conference members Utah and Colorado had graduation rates of 79% and 74% respectively. Arizona's graduation rate of 65% for all athletes is the worst for any major sports program.
| Grad Rates for All Athletes: Selected Others | |
|---|---|
| Penn St. | 90% |
| North Carolina | 87% |
| Florida | 82% |
| Alabama | 81% |
| Division I average | 79% |
| Michigan | 79% |
| Ohio St. | 79% |
| Florida St. | 79% |
| Auburn | 77% |
| Georgia | 77% |
| Georgia Tech | 75% |
| LSU | 74% |
| Tennessee | 74% |
| Nebraska | 73% |
| Texas | 70% |
| Oklahoma | 69% |
Student-athletes in the minor sports, especially women's sports, generally have higher graduation rates than student-athletes in the major men's sports. Women athletes and minor sport athletes improve the overall student-athlete graduation rates. As a result, most schools have overall graduation rates that look respectable. Overall grad rates for most schools tend to be clustered together within a relatively small range.
| Top 10 Grad Rates for All Athletes: Major Programs | |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 99% |
| Duke | 97% |
| Northwestern | 97% |
| Navy | 96% |
| Boston College | 96% |
| Rice | 95% |
| Stanford | 94% |
| Vanderbilt | 93% |
| Wake Forest | 93% |
| Penn St. | 90% |
| Air Force | 90% |
| Army | 90% |
There aren't many surprises in the top 10 list. The top 10 are mostly good private schools and service academies. Congratulations to Penn State for breaking into that group.
| Bottom 10 Grad Rates for All Athletes: Major Programs | |
|---|---|
| Arizona | 65% |
| Texas Tech | 67% |
| Oklahoma | 69% |
| Texas | 70% |
| Arkansas | 72% |
| Mississippi | 72% |
| North Carolina St. | 72% |
| Texas A&M | 72% |
| Nebraska | 73% |
| Kentucky | 74% |
| Colorado | 74% |
| Washington St. | 74% |
| LSU | 74% |
| South Carolina | 74% |
| Tennessee | 74% |
This year, we tightened up our definition of "major programs" for purposes of this category. We were tired of kicking around San Jose State, UAB, and the like. So, we've focused on overall athlete graduation rates of the BCS conference programs. Based on what we saw in the major sport grad rates, it should be no surprise to see Arizona, Oklahoma, and Texas down near the bottom of this list.
Source: All figures are taken from the NCAA 2010 Graduation Success Rate Report and the NCAA 2010 Federal Graduation Rate Report. All figures are "four class" graduation rates, representing the combined graduation rate of the four most recent classes for which data are available. These figures measure the percentage of scholarship athletes who graduate within six years after enrollment as freshmen. With the exception noted below, this analysis uses Graduation Success Rates, rather than federal graduation rates. Outgoing transfers in good academic standing are excluded from the Graduation Success Rates, while incoming transfers are included. This analysis covers the classes that would have graduated in the normal course in the years 2005 through 2008, assuming a five year track to graduation. The six-year periods for measuring graduation of these classes ended in the years 2006 through 2009.
Note on methodology regarding "graduation rate gaps": As noted above, this analysis generally uses Graduation Success Rates, rather than federal graduation rates. However, the NCAA publishes GSRs only for student-athletes, not for the overall student body. Graduation rates for the overall student body are reported only under the "federal graduation rate" method. This prevents a direct comparison between GSRs for student-athletes and GSRs for the overall student body. Because we used GSRs for student-athletes throughout our analysis, we decided for the sake of consistency to continue to use GSRs for student-athletes in calculating the "graduation rate gaps" between student-athletes and the overall student body. Thus, the "graduation rate gap" tables compare GSRs for student-athletes to federal graduation rates for the overall student body. We realize that this not an apples to apples comparison. But we believe the comparison is nonetheless informative. Because GSRs for student-athletes generally are higher than federal graduation rates, the "graduation rate gaps" we have identified generally are smaller than they would have been if we had used the federal graduation rates for both the student-athletes and the overall student body.


