Corner: From Oregon Outlier To Tree Trend

Last year's Oregon squad scored at least 42 points in all of their regular season games. Except one. And we all know about that one game. Can Stanford turn that one game into a trend?



On Thursday night, in this year's Pac-12 Game of the Century, all eyes will be on the Farm when the Stanford Cardinal take on the Oregon Ducks. And, as is custom for Oregon football games, all eyes will also be on the scoreboard.

De'Anthony Thomas will certainly be keeping an eye on the number in the Ducks' score column. When asked if he thought Stanford could hold Oregon to 14 points, the Ducks' total from last year's meeting, the tailback told GoDucks.com: "I don't think so. I feel like this team, we should at least put up 40."

Of course, in this age of instant hype and automatic overreaction, Thomas's quote spawned the expected: instant hype and automatic overreaction. It has become this game's defining sound bite so far. It made headlines on all the websites. Some even labeled it trash talk.

Stanford fans may not want to hear this, but here's the thing: De'Anthony Thomas is not wrong. You've seen the Ducks play, right? You know they can put 40 points on almost any team almost at will, right? You know that their offense is still operating at a level that no one else in college football can touch, right?

David Shaw has seen the Ducks play. Which is why, when told about Thomas's comments, he merely replied, "No problem with him saying that." After all, it's not trash talk if there's some actual substance behind it. This isn't exactly cal defensive coordinator Andy Buh saying he can hold someone under 40 points.

Why shouldn't Thomas feel like the Ducks can put up 40 points on anyone they face? The 42 points they put up on UCLA in their last game was their lowest total in any game so far this year. In their last 32 regular season games, Oregon has passed the 40-point mark 29 times.

And why shouldn't he feel like the Ducks can put up 40 points on Stanford? Oregon dropped 53 points on Stanford in 2011. The year before that, the Ducks racked up 52 points. And both of those performances came against very stout Stanford defenses, the kind the Ducks will be facing again on Thursday night.

Since 1993, Oregon has scored fewer than 20 points against Stanford exactly twice: last year, and in a 16-13 win over the Card in 2004. Outside of those two results, Oregon has had few problems getting on the scoreboard against Stanford. Between 2005 and 2011, the Ducks always scored at least 35 points against the Cardinal.

This was true even before Oregon installed their spread option offense that eventually sped up from 45 to 78 rpm. (That's an LP reference for you youngsters. Ask your parents what an LP is…) The Ducks trampled Stanford with 63 points in 1998. In 1997, even though Oregon lost, they still scored 49 points.

So as it turns out, De'Anthony Thomas has every right to expect to put up 40 points against the Cardinal. After all, they've done it 10 of the last 14 times they've played against Stanford. Seems like the right place to set the bar, no?

The truth is that, as of right now, last year's 14-point performance was an outlier. I won't call it a fluke, and I damn sure won't call it luck, because both of those assessments would be disrespectful and grossly inaccurate. Stanford's defense got after the Ducks that night in Eugene. They earned that win.

And, if you remember, I was one of the few who publicly thought the Cardinal had the personnel to contain the Ducks last year, and pointed it out weeks before the actual game itself. So I wasn't shocked to see Stanford's front win the line of scrimmage. I wasn't surprised to see the Cardinal tackle as well as they did. My only surprise came when Devon Carrington caught Marcus Mariota from behind on that 77-yard run.

Last year, Stanford's defense shut down Oregon to the point where NFL defensive coordinators spent the offseason making pilgrimages to Palo Alto to get Derek Mason's secrets on how to stop the spread offense. That was nice to see. But until I see it happen two years in a row, I can't call it anything more than what it is right now: an anomaly.

Unless Kevin Hogan picks up his game in the passing department and rediscovers the knack for making explosive plays through the air that he had shown earlier in the season, it's going to be hard for me to think Stanford can beat Oregon in a shootout. So, instead of trying to match the Ducks score for score and put 40 on the board themselves, Stanford would be best served by doing what it does best: pound away with the running game, win the time of possession, and score sixes instead of threes.

But once again, the Cardinal's big questions loom on defense. Does Stanford still have the personnel to win the line of scrimmage? Can the linebackers roam sideline to sideline? Can the secondary get to the ball? Can everybody play assignment football? Can everybody tackle in open space? If so, the Cardinal will have a leg up on shutting down the Quack Attack again.

But until then, 14 points is still the outlier. And until then, De'Anthony Thomas is right to think his team can put 40 points on Stanford. The Card's job Thursday night is to turn the outlier into a trend.

********** ********** **********

RANDOM PAC-12 THOUGHTS

I'll be honest: I'm not sure I'm a big fan of this game being played on a Thursday night. But that's what happens when the television viewer becomes more important than the paying spectator…

Whoa. I didn't see that coming from U$C. I may have to rethink their prospects for the rest of the regular season…

Not a Pac-12 thought, but… I realize that a lot will be decided in college football this long weekend, but I can't be the only one who thinks that right now, at this exact point, the best team in the country is Florida State. Can I?

Not a Pac-12 thought, but… there are just too many facets of the Jonathan Martin situation to cram into one non-Pac-12 thought, so I'll just say this: in the twisted logic of the NFL, its value system, and its culture, I actually think Richie Incognito has a better chance of playing again than Martin does…

Not a Pac-12 thought, but… entering last week, Jets QB Geno Smith had more fantasy points than Patriots QB Tom Brady. To me, that says more about fantasy football than it does about Tom Brady…

Not a Pac-12 thought, but… Major League Baseball can crow all it wants about how World Series TV ratings were higher than they've been in years. But here's what they won't tell you: according to Nielsen (the folks who calculate TV ratings), the average World Series viewer was 54.4 years old. Think about that. 54.4 years old. What does that tell you about the future of that sport?

********** ********** **********

PAC-12 PICKS

U$C @ cal. What's this? The Bears have actually covered two weeks in a row? Good for them. Problem is that the Trojans are starting to act like they have an offense again. Now they face a Bears defense that could make this year's U$C squad look like it's 2005 again. I like U$C by 31.

Arizona State @ Utah. As Stanford fans learned the hard way, teams have to be on upset alert when they visit Salt Lake City. That said, I like Arizona State by 12, but I don't expect it to be easy by any stretch.

Colorado @ Washington. I have to give it to the Buffs; they're starting to perk up a bit. They're still not good enough to beat teams like the Huskies, though. I like Washington by 26.

UCLA @ Arizona. The Bruins are a better team. So why am I getting a funny feeling that B.J. Denker will somehow make two big throws and Ka'Deem Carey will lead the Wildcats the rest of the way? I like Arizona by 5.

Last week: 3-1 (straight-up), 1-3 (ATS).
This year: 21-5 (straight-up), 13-13 (ATS).
Last year: 36-9 (straight-up), 25-20 (ATS).

********** ********** **********


Troy Clardy is in his 21st year of following the Cardinal as a columnist, broadcaster, and announcer. In its 12th season of Cardinal commentary, Clardy's Corner appears Wednesdays during the college football regular season on TheBootleg.com. You can also check him out online at TroyClardy.com, hear him on Pittsburgh's Sportsradio 93-7 The Fan, or e-mail him at troyc@thebootleg.com.






Are you fully subscribed to The Bootleg? If not, then you are missing out on all the top Cardinal coverage we provide daily on our award-winning website. Sign up today for the biggest and best in Stanford sports coverage with TheBootleg.com (sign-up)!


The Bootleg Top Stories

\r\n\r\nFollow @TheBootleg\r\n\r\n

\r\nOn Thursday night, in this year's Pac-12 Game of the Century, all eyes will be on the Farm when the Stanford Cardinal take on the Oregon Ducks. And, as is custom for Oregon football games, all eyes will also be on the scoreboard.\r\n

\r\nDe'Anthony Thomas will certainly be keeping an eye on the number in the Ducks' score column. When asked if he thought Stanford could hold Oregon to 14 points, the Ducks' total from last year's meeting, the tailback told GoDucks.com: \"I don't think so. I feel like this team, we should at least put up 40.\"\r\n

\r\nOf course, in this age of instant hype and automatic overreaction, Thomas's quote spawned the expected: instant hype and automatic overreaction. It has become this game's defining sound bite so far. It made headlines on all the websites. Some even labeled it trash talk.\r\n

\r\nStanford fans may not want to hear this, but here's the thing: De'Anthony Thomas is not wrong. You've seen the Ducks play, right? You know they can put 40 points on almost any team almost at will, right? You know that their offense is still operating at a level that no one else in college football can touch, right?\r\n

\r\nDavid Shaw has seen the Ducks play. Which is why, when told about Thomas's comments, he merely replied, \"No problem with him saying that.\" After all, it's not trash talk if there's some actual substance behind it. This isn't exactly cal defensive coordinator Andy Buh saying he can hold someone under 40 points.\r\n

\r\nWhy shouldn't Thomas feel like the Ducks can put up 40 points on anyone they face? The 42 points they put up on UCLA in their last game was their lowest total in any game so far this year. In their last 32 regular season games, Oregon has passed the 40-point mark 29 times.\r\n

\r\nAnd why shouldn't he feel like the Ducks can put up 40 points on Stanford? Oregon dropped 53 points on Stanford in 2011. The year before that, the Ducks racked up 52 points. And both of those performances came against very stout Stanford defenses, the kind the Ducks will be facing again on Thursday night.\r\n

\r\nSince 1993, Oregon has scored fewer than 20 points against Stanford exactly twice: last year, and in a 16-13 win over the Card in 2004. Outside of those two results, Oregon has had few problems getting on the scoreboard against Stanford. Between 2005 and 2011, the Ducks always scored at least 35 points against the Cardinal. \r\n

\r\nThis was true even before Oregon installed their spread option offense that eventually sped up from 45 to 78 rpm. (That's an LP reference for you youngsters. Ask your parents what an LP is…) The Ducks trampled Stanford with 63 points in 1998. In 1997, even though Oregon lost, they still scored 49 points.\r\n

\r\nSo as it turns out, De'Anthony Thomas has every right to expect to put up 40 points against the Cardinal. After all, they've done it 10 of the last 14 times they've played against Stanford. Seems like the right place to set the bar, no?\r\n

\r\nThe truth is that, as of right now, last year's 14-point performance was an outlier. I won't call it a fluke, and I damn sure won't call it luck, because both of those assessments would be disrespectful and grossly inaccurate. Stanford's defense got after the Ducks that night in Eugene. They earned that win.\r\n

\r\nAnd, if you remember, I was one of the few who publicly thought the Cardinal had the personnel to contain the Ducks last year, and pointed it out weeks before the actual game itself. So I wasn't shocked to see Stanford's front win the line of scrimmage. I wasn't surprised to see the Cardinal tackle as well as they did. My only surprise came when Devon Carrington caught Marcus Mariota from behind on that 77-yard run.\r\n

\r\nLast year, Stanford's defense shut down Oregon to the point where NFL defensive coordinators spent the offseason making pilgrimages to Palo Alto to get Derek Mason's secrets on how to stop the spread offense. That was nice to see. But until I see it happen two years in a row, I can't call it anything more than what it is right now: an anomaly.\r\n

\r\nUnless Kevin Hogan picks up his game in the passing department and rediscovers the knack for making explosive plays through the air that he had shown earlier in the season, it's going to be hard for me to think Stanford can beat Oregon in a shootout. So, instead of trying to match the Ducks score for score and put 40 on the board themselves, Stanford would be best served by doing what it does best: pound away with the running game, win the time of possession, and score sixes instead of threes.\r\n

\r\nBut once again, the Cardinal's big questions loom on defense. Does Stanford still have the personnel to win the line of scrimmage? Can the linebackers roam sideline to sideline? Can the secondary get to the ball? Can everybody play assignment football? Can everybody tackle in open space? If so, the Cardinal will have a leg up on shutting down the Quack Attack again.\r\n

\r\nBut until then, 14 points is still the outlier. And until then, De'Anthony Thomas is right to think his team can put 40 points on Stanford. The Card's job Thursday night is to turn the outlier into a trend.\r\n

\r\n********** ********** **********\r\n

\r\nRANDOM PAC-12 THOUGHTS\r\n

\r\nI'll be honest: I'm not sure I'm a big fan of this game being played on a Thursday night. But that's what happens when the television viewer becomes more important than the paying spectator…\r\n

\r\nWhoa. I didn't see that coming from U$C. I may have to rethink their prospects for the rest of the regular season…\r\n

\r\nNot a Pac-12 thought, but… I realize that a lot will be decided in college football this long weekend, but I can't be the only one who thinks that right now, at this exact point, the best team in the country is Florida State. Can I?\r\n

\r\nNot a Pac-12 thought, but… there are just too many facets of the Jonathan Martin situation to cram into one non-Pac-12 thought, so I'll just say this: in the twisted logic of the NFL, its value system, and its culture, I actually think Richie Incognito has a better chance of playing again than Martin does…\r\n

\r\nNot a Pac-12 thought, but… entering last week, Jets QB Geno Smith had more fantasy points than Patriots QB Tom Brady. To me, that says more about fantasy football than it does about Tom Brady…\r\n

\r\nNot a Pac-12 thought, but… Major League Baseball can crow all it wants about how World Series TV ratings were higher than they've been in years. But here's what they won't tell you: according to Nielsen (the folks who calculate TV ratings), the average World Series viewer was 54.4 years old. Think about that. 54.4 years old. What does that tell you about the future of that sport?\r\n

\r\n********** ********** **********\r\n

\r\nPAC-12 PICKS\r\n

\r\nU$C @ cal. What's this? The Bears have actually covered two weeks in a row? Good for them. Problem is that the Trojans are starting to act like they have an offense again. Now they face a Bears defense that could make this year's U$C squad look like it's 2005 again. I like U$C by 31.\r\n

\r\nArizona State @ Utah. As Stanford fans learned the hard way, teams have to be on upset alert when they visit Salt Lake City. That said, I like Arizona State by 12, but I don't expect it to be easy by any stretch.\r\n

\r\nColorado @ Washington. I have to give it to the Buffs; they're starting to perk up a bit. They're still not good enough to beat teams like the Huskies, though. I like Washington by 26.\r\n

\r\nUCLA @ Arizona. The Bruins are a better team. So why am I getting a funny feeling that B.J. Denker will somehow make two big throws and Ka'Deem Carey will lead the Wildcats the rest of the way? I like Arizona by 5.\r\n

\r\nLast week: 3-1 (straight-up), 1-3 (ATS).\r\n
This year: 21-5 (straight-up), 13-13 (ATS).\r\n
Last year: 36-9 (straight-up), 25-20 (ATS).\r\n

\r\n********** ********** **********\r\n
\r\n


\r\nTroy Clardy is in his 21st year of following the Cardinal as a columnist, broadcaster, and announcer. In its 12th season of Cardinal commentary, Clardy's Corner appears Wednesdays during the college football regular season on TheBootleg.com. You can also check him out online at TroyClardy.com, hear him on Pittsburgh's Sportsradio 93-7 The Fan, or e-mail him at troyc@thebootleg.com.\r\n


\r\n

\r\n




\r\n

Are you fully subscribed to The\r\nBootleg? If not, then you are missing out on\r\nall the top Cardinal coverage we provide daily on our\r\naward-winning website. Sign up today for the biggest and best in\r\nStanford sports coverage with TheBootleg.com\r\n(sign-up)!

","mobileBody":" Follow @TheBootleg On Thursday night, in this year's Pac-12 Game of the Century, all eyes will be on the Farm when the Stanford Cardinal take on the Oregon Ducks. And, as is custom for Oregon football games, all eyes will also be on the scoreboard.

De'Anthony Thomas will certainly be keeping an eye on the number in the Ducks' score column. When asked if he thought Stanford could hold Oregon to 14 points, the Ducks' total from last year's meeting, the tailback told GoDucks.com: \"I don't think so. I feel like this team, we should at least put up 40.\"

Of course, in this age of instant hype and automatic overreaction, Thomas's quote spawned the expected: instant hype and automatic overreaction. It has become this game's defining sound bite so far. It made headlines on all the websites. Some even labeled it trash talk.

Stanford fans may not want to hear this, but here's the thing: De'Anthony Thomas is not wrong. You've seen the Ducks play, right? You know they can put 40 points on almost any team almost at will, right? You know that their offense is still operating at a level that no one else in college football can touch, right?

David Shaw has seen the Ducks play. Which is why, when told about Thomas's comments, he merely replied, \"No problem with him saying that.\" After all, it's not trash talk if there's some actual substance behind it. This isn't exactly cal defensive coordinator Andy Buh saying he can hold someone 40 points.

Why shouldn't Thomas feel like the Ducks can put up 40 points on anyone they face? The 42 points they put up on UCLA in their last game was their lowest total in any game so far this year. In their last 32 regular season games, Oregon has passed the 40-point mark 29 times.

And why shouldn't he feel like the Ducks can put up 40 points on Stanford? Oregon dropped 53 points on Stanford in 2011. The year before that, the Ducks racked up 52 points. And both of those performances came against very stout Stanford defenses, the kind the Ducks will be facing again on Thursday night.

Since 1993, Oregon has scored fewer than 20 points against Stanford exactly twice: last year, and in a 16-13 win over the Card in 2004. Outside of those two results, Oregon has had few problems getting on the scoreboard against Stanford. Between 2005 and 2011, the Ducks always scored at least 35 points against the Cardinal.

This was true even before Oregon installed their spread option offense that eventually sped up from 45 to 78 rpm. (That's an LP reference for you youngsters. Ask your parents what an LP is…) The Ducks trampled Stanford with 63 points in 1998. In 1997, even though Oregon lost, they still scored 49 points.

So as it turns out, De'Anthony Thomas has every right to expect to put up 40 points against the Cardinal. After all, they've done it 10 of the last 14 times they've played against Stanford. Seems like the right place to set the bar, no?

The truth is that, as of right now, last year's 14-point performance was an outlier. I won't call it a fluke, and I damn sure won't call it luck, because both of those assessments would be disrespectful and grossly inaccurate. Stanford's defense got after the Ducks that night in Eugene. They earned that win.

And, if you remember, I was one of the few who publicly thought the Cardinal had the personnel to contain the Ducks last year, and pointed it out weeks before the actual game itself. So I wasn't shocked to see Stanford's front win the line of scrimmage. I wasn't surprised to see the Cardinal tackle as well as they did. My only surprise came when Devon Carrington caught Marcus Mariota from behind on that 77-yard run.

Last year, Stanford's defense shut down Oregon to the point where NFL defensive coordinators spent the offseason making pilgrimages to Palo Alto to get Derek Mason's secrets on how to stop the spread offense. That was nice to see. But until I see it happen two years in a row, I can't call it anything more than what it is right now: an anomaly.

Unless Kevin Hogan picks up his game in the passing department and rediscovers the knack for making explosive plays through the air that he had shown earlier in the season, it's going to be hard for me to think Stanford can beat Oregon in a shootout. So, instead of trying to match the Ducks score for score and put 40 on the board themselves, Stanford would be best served by doing what it does best: pound away with the running game, win the time of possession, and score sixes instead of threes.

But once again, the Cardinal's big questions loom on defense. Does Stanford still have the personnel to win the line of scrimmage? Can the linebackers roam sideline to sideline? Can the secondary get to the ball? Can everybody play assignment football? Can everybody tackle in open space? If so, the Cardinal will have a leg up on shutting down the Quack Attack again.

But until then, 14 points is still the outlier. And until then, De'Anthony Thomas is right to think his team can put 40 points on Stanford. The Card's job Thursday night is to turn the outlier into a trend.

********** ********** **********

I'll be honest: I'm not sure I'm a big fan of this game being played on a Thursday night. But that's what happens when the television viewer becomes more important than the paying spectator…

Whoa. I didn't see coming from U$C. I may have to rethink their prospects for the rest of the regular season…

I realize that a lot will be decided in college football this long weekend, but I can't be the only one who thinks that right now, at this exact point, the best team in the country is Florida State. Can I?

there are just too many facets of the Jonathan Martin situation to cram into one non-Pac-12 thought, so I'll just say this: in the twisted logic of the NFL, its value system, and its culture, I actually think Richie Incognito has a better chance of playing again than Martin does…

entering last week, Jets QB Geno Smith had more fantasy points than Patriots QB Tom Brady. To me, that says more about fantasy football than it does about Tom Brady…

Major League Baseball can crow all it wants about how World Series TV ratings were higher than they've been in years. But here's what they won't tell you: according to Nielsen (the folks who calculate TV ratings), the average World Series viewer was 54.4 years old. Think about that. 54.4 years old. What does that tell you about the future of that sport?

********** ********** **********

What's this? The Bears have actually covered two weeks in a row? Good for them. Problem is that the Trojans are starting to act like they have an offense again. Now they face a Bears defense that could make this year's U$C squad look like it's 2005 again.

As Stanford fans learned the hard way, teams have to be on upset alert when they visit Salt Lake City. That said, but I don't expect it to be easy by any stretch.

I have to give it to the Buffs; they're starting to perk up a bit. They're still not good enough to beat teams like the Huskies, though.

The Bruins are a better team. So why am I getting a funny feeling that B.J. Denker will somehow make two big throws and Ka'Deem Carey will lead the Wildcats the rest of the way?

3-1 (straight-up), 1-3 (ATS). 21-5 (straight-up), 13-13 (ATS). 36-9 (straight-up), 25-20 (ATS). ********** ********** **********

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