Stanford-USC Postgame Thoughts and Pressers

View before: Great team, but coaching keeping us out of the national title game. View now: team with some holes, and coaching good enough to march to the 31-6 record, but not a standard deviation ahead of the rest of their peers and able overcome those holes. To me, that the weaknesses are with the players and not the coaches, which is what I saw today, is a reason for optimism looking ahead.







Thoughts

So we've had a spirited disagreement in the press box, by which I mean it was one vs. ten, with me as the sole contrarian. The consensus, which David Lombardi articulates well, is that David Shaw screwed the pooch on this one. If he hadn't called wildcat on first and goal. If he hadn't called a slant on the ensuing third and goal. If he had run, instead of passed, on the second and short that resulted in Hogan's final interception. (My add: If he hadn't called a fade into the end zone on the series before the field goal block. As Sam Fisher put well, the last Stanford player to catch an end zone fade was probably Mark Bradford in this here stadium.)

I don't disagree, per se, but to me, this game makes me more confident in David Shaw as a coach. In a nutshell, I think that's because my perception has shifted. I used to think the play-calling was this team's limiting factor. Now I think it's the offensive personnel, and the play-calling is trying (albeit imperfectly) to compensate for those weaknesses.

Our quarterback and our star wide receiver are who they are, and this game exposed that. At some point, you can only write away so many bad games, and you are what your stats say. Our star receiver has been much better this year, to his credit, but he dropped the ball in key situations today, and has demonstrated that trend throughout his college career. Our quarterback locks onto receivers and telegraphs passes, and interceptions result. On deep balls, he alternates between hitting his target and overshooting by several yards. Both are good, but not elite, college players, and with average play-calling, I think this team wins about 10 games against this schedule. Not incidentally, this team is on pace to win 10 games against its schedule.

That's not to say I don't have critiques of individual plays, or that had every game been called optimally, we would be undefeated right now. But perfection is a different standard than what many of us had feared from the play-calling.

View heading into tonight: Great team, coaching holding us back and keeping us out of the national title game. View now: team with some holes, and coaching good enough to march to the 31-6 record, but not a standard deviation ahead of the rest of their peers and able overcome those holes. To me, that the weaknesses are with the players and not the coaches, which is what I saw today, is a reason for optimism looking ahead.

Or, looked at another way: the team's best skill, and thus core identity, is running the ball up the middle. Great, but you need some sort of counter to that, otherwise you're running into 10-man fronts all day (as we've seen from no shortage of experience). Well, normally that would be airing it out, and we obviously do that, and quite well from time to time. But if the coaching staff doesn't completely trust the passing attack, then why not throw in some gimmicks for players they do think have elite skills, such as the Young package or the wildcat package. Not that I like the wildcat as presently employed, but for the first time, I see some sort of logic behind it.

Similarly, why don't we make a quarterback change early in 2012, especially once Kevin Hogan comes on like gangbusters? How utterly afraid to admit a mistake is our coaching staff, which we're presumably saddled with for the foreseeable future, that they can't make that switch? Well, turns out that No. 8 has his limitations too, and as far as not throwing him in there right away as a true freshman – I don't know if I wouldn't have made the move sooner, but again, I have more of an appreciation the logic behind it.

Five years from now, our offensive personnel will be entirely different, but it's quite possible that our coaches will be largely the same. So all else being equal, I would rather my team play up to its potential (as I believe Stanford largely has under Shaw), because as the players turn over and we have a bunch in there that has the potential to be something special (and I believe our recruiting has been at that level to give us seasons with "special" rosters), we can do just that. If the problem were with the coaching staff then, that would represent a cap on expectations for years to come. Instead, I think the sky's the limit in years to come.

So call me crazy, but I'm more optimistic than before I turned down the Pacheco Pass this morning. And, hey, we still have a lot of outs. Oregon has two chances to lose. Teams ahead of us in the BCS at-large order – Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma State and Clemson – could lose. Any single one of these outs is improbable, but just as improbable is that none of these occur, that every single favorite wins the rest of the way. And, besides, now we're not rooting for Alabama or Florida State-level teams to lose, but rather, rooting against teams that have already lost, that have exposed flaws, and that are more likely to lose again. So see where it shakes out, take care of business in impressive fashion the last two weeks, and Stanford might find itself in a BCS bowl for the fourth straight year. I'd take a Sugar Bowl to complete the circuit.





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Thoughts\r\n

So we've had a spirited disagreement in the press box, by which I mean it was one vs. ten, with me as the sole contrarian. The consensus, which David Lombardi articulates well, is that David Shaw screwed the pooch on this one. If he hadn't called wildcat on first and goal. If he hadn't called a slant on the ensuing third and goal. If he had run, instead of passed, on the second and short that resulted in Hogan's final interception. (My add: If he hadn't called a fade into the end zone on the series before the field goal block. As Sam Fisher put well, the last Stanford player to catch an end zone fade was probably Mark Bradford in this here stadium.)\r\n

I don't disagree, per se, but to me, this game makes me more confident in David Shaw as a coach. In a nutshell, I think that's because my perception has shifted. I used to think the play-calling was this team's limiting factor. Now I think it's the offensive personnel, and the play-calling is trying (albeit imperfectly) to compensate for those weaknesses.\r\n

Our quarterback and our star wide receiver are who they are, and this game exposed that. At some point, you can only write away so many bad games, and you are what your stats say. Our star receiver has been much better this year, to his credit, but he dropped the ball in key situations today, and has demonstrated that trend throughout his college career. Our quarterback locks onto receivers and telegraphs passes, and interceptions result. On deep balls, he alternates between hitting his target and overshooting by several yards. Both are good, but not elite, college players, and with average play-calling, I think this team wins about 10 games against this schedule. Not incidentally, this team is on pace to win 10 games against its schedule.\r\n

That's not to say I don't have critiques of individual plays, or that had every game been called optimally, we would be undefeated right now. But perfection is a different standard than what many of us had feared from the play-calling.\r\n

View heading into tonight: Great team, coaching holding us back and keeping us out of the national title game. View now: team with some holes, and coaching good enough to march to the 31-6 record, but not a standard deviation ahead of the rest of their peers and able overcome those holes. To me, that the weaknesses are with the players and not the coaches, which is what I saw today, is a reason for optimism looking ahead.\r\n

Or, looked at another way: the team's best skill, and thus core identity, is running the ball up the middle. Great, but you need some sort of counter to that, otherwise you're running into 10-man fronts all day (as we've seen from no shortage of experience). Well, normally that would be airing it out, and we obviously do that, and quite well from time to time. But if the coaching staff doesn't completely trust the passing attack, then why not throw in some gimmicks for players they do think have elite skills, such as the Young package or the wildcat package. Not that I like the wildcat as presently employed, but for the first time, I see some sort of logic behind it.\r\n

Similarly, why don't we make a quarterback change early in 2012, especially once Kevin Hogan comes on like gangbusters? How utterly afraid to admit a mistake is our coaching staff, which we're presumably saddled with for the foreseeable future, that they can't make that switch? Well, turns out that No. 8 has his limitations too, and as far as not throwing him in there right away as a true freshman – I don't know if I wouldn't have made the move sooner, but again, I have more of an appreciation the logic behind it.\r\n

Five years from now, our offensive personnel will be entirely different, but it's quite possible that our coaches will be largely the same. So all else being equal, I would rather my team play up to its potential (as I believe Stanford largely has under Shaw), because as the players turn over and we have a bunch in there that has the potential to be something special (and I believe our recruiting has been at that level to give us seasons with \"special\" rosters), we can do just that. If the problem were with the coaching staff then, that would represent a cap on expectations for years to come. Instead, I think the sky's the limit in years to come.\r\n

So call me crazy, but I'm more optimistic than before I turned down the Pacheco Pass this morning. And, hey, we still have a lot of outs. Oregon has two chances to lose. Teams ahead of us in the BCS at-large order – Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma State and Clemson – could lose. Any single one of these outs is improbable, but just as improbable is that none of these occur, that every single favorite wins the rest of the way. And, besides, now we're not rooting for Alabama or Florida State-level teams to lose, but rather, rooting against teams that have already lost, that have exposed flaws, and that are more likely to lose again. So see where it shakes out, take care of business in impressive fashion the last two weeks, and Stanford might find itself in a BCS bowl for the fourth straight year. I'd take a Sugar Bowl to complete the circuit.\r\n

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So we've had a spirited disagreement in the press box, by which I mean it was one vs. ten, with me as the sole contrarian. The consensus, which David Lombardi articulates well, is that David Shaw screwed the pooch on this one. If he hadn't called wildcat on first and goal. If he hadn't called a slant on the ensuing third and goal. If he had run, instead of passed, on the second and short that resulted in Hogan's final interception. (My add: If he hadn't called a fade into the end zone on the series before the field goal block. As Sam Fisher put well, the last Stanford player to catch an end zone fade was probably Mark Bradford in this here stadium.)

I don't disagree, per se, but to me, this game makes me confident in David Shaw as a coach. In a nutshell, I think that's because my perception has shifted. I used to think the play-calling was this team's limiting factor. Now I think it's the offensive personnel, and the play-calling is trying (albeit imperfectly) to compensate for those weaknesses.

Our quarterback and our star wide receiver are who they are, and this game exposed that. At some point, you can only write away so many bad games, and you are what your stats say. Our star receiver has been much better this year, to his credit, but he dropped the ball in key situations today, and has demonstrated that trend throughout his college career. Our quarterback locks onto receivers and telegraphs passes, and interceptions result. On deep balls, he alternates between hitting his target and overshooting by several yards. Both are good, but not elite, college players, and with average play-calling, I think this team wins about 10 games against this schedule. Not incidentally, this team is on pace to win 10 games against its schedule.

That's not to say I don't have critiques of individual plays, or that had every game been called optimally, we would be undefeated right now. But perfection is a different standard than what many of us had feared from the play-calling.

View heading into tonight: Great team, coaching holding us back and keeping us out of the national title game. View now: team with some holes, and coaching good enough to march to the 31-6 record, but not a standard deviation ahead of the rest of their peers and able overcome those holes. To me, that the weaknesses are with the players and not the coaches, which is what I saw today, is a reason for looking ahead.

Or, looked at another way: the team's best skill, and thus core identity, is running the ball up the middle. Great, but you need some sort of counter to that, otherwise you're running into 10-man fronts all day (as we've seen from no shortage of experience). Well, normally that would be airing it out, and we obviously do that, and quite well from time to time. But if the coaching staff doesn't completely trust the passing attack, then why not throw in some gimmicks for players they do think have elite skills, such as the Young package or the wildcat package. Not that I like the wildcat as presently employed, but for the first time, I see some sort of logic behind it.

Similarly, why don't we make a quarterback change early in 2012, especially once Kevin Hogan comes on like gangbusters? How utterly afraid to admit a mistake is our coaching staff, which we're presumably saddled with for the foreseeable future, that they can't make that switch? Well, turns out that No. 8 has his limitations too, and as far as not throwing him in there right away as a true freshman – I don't know if I wouldn't have made the move sooner, but again, I have more of an appreciation the logic behind it.

Five years from now, our offensive personnel will be entirely different, but it's quite possible that our coaches will be largely the same. So all else being equal, I would rather my team play up to its potential (as I believe Stanford largely has under Shaw), because as the players turn over and we have a bunch in there that has the potential to be something special (and I believe our recruiting has been at that level to give us seasons with \"special\" rosters), we can do just that. If the problem were with the coaching staff then, that would represent a cap on expectations for years to come. Instead, I think the sky's the limit in years to come.

So call me crazy, but I'm more optimistic than before I turned down the Pacheco Pass this morning. And, hey, we still have a lot of outs. Oregon has two chances to lose. Teams ahead of us in the BCS at-large order – Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Oklahoma State and Clemson – could lose. Any single one of these outs is improbable, but just as improbable is that of these occur, that every single favorite wins the rest of the way. And, besides, now we're not rooting for Alabama or Florida State-level teams to lose, but rather, rooting against teams that have already lost, that have exposed flaws, and that are more likely to lose again. So see where it shakes out, take care of business in impressive fashion the last two weeks, and Stanford might find itself in a BCS bowl for the fourth straight year. I'd take a Sugar Bowl to complete the circuit.

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