Stanford's offense: Myths and Realities

The Myths and Realities of Stanford’s Flatlining Offense

Scorched: The Myths and Realities of Stanford’s Flatlining Offense Stanford returned to the site of its most complete and meaningful offensive performance of 2013 and commemorated it with its most embarrassing and meaningful performance of 2014, continuing its season-long assault on the collective will of the defense and special teams. After six games of successfully quarantining the toxic putridity of the offense, it finally seeped through and permeated the entire team, leaving the Cardinal to stagger out into the desert night uncertain of its identity, fate, and leadership. The excuses that masked or obfuscated the painful truths about this football team expired on Saturday night. Notre Dame proved itself a top team by going into Tallahassee and playing Florida State right down to the final play. USC, while not an elite team, has more talent than any team in the country and is still a contender for the South Division championship. Arizona State is also a contender for that title, but there is a huge difference. ASU has been winning all year with offense. Its defense is straight garbage, sitting below the middle of the pack in most crucial categories. This is a unit that was giving up over 200 yards a game rushing, 400 yards a game passing, and 34 points a game in conference. On Saturday night they dominated the Stanford offense in much the same way Notre Dame did, without the excuses of the weather or the defensive pedigree to explain Stanford’s incompetence. Nothing happened on Saturday night that was new. This team is underperforming on the offensive line, at QB, RB, and on the sidelines. Stanford has spent the last two years beating more talented teams on offense for two major reasons. One was that it had an elite defense that set the bar needed for victory very low. The other was that it had an identity that every offensive player seemed to embrace and understand. Stanford won with Power running and play action passing. The return of the tight end as a viable threat provided hope that the latter would return, and the promise of the offensive line suggested that the Power running game would be the centerpiece of this team. Instead, every aspect of Stanford’s offense has been an underwhelming fiasco. I have been wrestling with the ideas that the core problem has been about overestimating the talent on the field or about the coaches mishandling said talent. The reality is that the answer is probably a bit of both, but that doesn’t help much moving forward. In going over the numbers, it is interesting to take note of what has become myth and reality over the course of this season.

“Turnovers are killing Stanford.” They’re not helping, and statistically speaking, Stanford’s turnover margin sits at -7. The Cardinal has fumbled 15 times this year and lost seven. The defense has one interception in conference play, which ties it for 9th with Colorado and Washington. Stanford’s never been a team that thrives on turnovers. In 2013, their margin in conference was zero. The two previous years that number was +2, but keep in mind, that was over a nine game schedule. However, for Stanford to be sitting at -7 with five conference games left is a bit unsettling. Oregon State, by the way, has lost only two fumbles in conference, the fewest in the Pac-12. Verdict: Reality.

”Penalties are killing Stanford.” Overall, the answer is no. Here are Stanford’s Penalty rankings this year and the past three:
Year     Penalties    Rank
2014       30            7th
2013       58            8th
2012       67            7th
2011       58            3rd

The referees aren’t making it rain any more on Stanford than usual. I’d contend that the offensive line is responsible for more of those penalties than usual, but that remains to be confirmed. The Tale of the One Holding Call all last year has mischaracterized the overall reality here. There have been a number of penalties that sustained drives for opponents this year, but the truth is that penalties, in both amount and yardage, are basically the same as they have been. Verdict: No More Than Usual.

”3rd Down is killing Stanford.” Here is Stanford’s 3rd down conversion performance against Pac-12 opponents going back to 2011:
Year        Attempts        Conversion %
2014       54 (8th)           37% (10th)
2013       145 (T-5th)     47% (1st)
2012       145 (T-2nd)    40% (4th)
2011       124 (T-7th)     54% (1st)

 I had assumed that one of Stanford’s problems this year was that it was getting to 3rd down too often. However, the numbers don’t bear that out. Stanford’s had only three more 3rd downs than Oregon. It’s on pace to face fewer third downs than it did in any of the previous three seasons. So what gives? Let’s start by checking to see what kind of 3rd Downs Stanford faced in Tempe. Stanford faced 3rd and less than 4 on only three of its 15 third downs. I would bet the ranch that its teams in the last three seasons had far more thirds and short. And this leads us back to second and first down. Stanford ran the ball on first down 10 times and gained a grand total of 22 yards. It passed the ball on first down 14 times and gained 99 yards. So pass more, right? Not so fast. Hogan only completed 7 of his 14 throws, so on at least half of its passes Stanford faced 2nd and 10. The big chunk passes (gains of 22 and 30 especially) on first down were great, but in terms of consistency, Stanford was shaky on first down, and it really didn’t matter what was called. This created a scenario in which Stanford faced 2nd and short only twice the entire game.

The Cardinal rushed six times on 2nd down for a grand total of 24 yards. Two of those six were RFLONGS (gains of 2 yards or less). Hogan completed 5 of his 8 passes on 2nd down, but for only 3.8 Yards Per Attempt. This is how you get to low leverage third downs, and that’s how you get such a low third down conversion percentage. Stanford converted one third down of 10 yards to go or more, ASU completed two. It doesn’t matter how “explosive” you are, third down and long is going to beat you more often than you’re going to beat it. ASU faced 5 short third down conversions (less than 4 YTG). Stanford faced two. That was the story of the game. Stanford’s offense essentially matched ASU in terms of yards per play, both rushing and passing. ASU actually only ran for 2.5 YPA, while Stanford was a yard better. ASU passed for 7.1 YPA, while Stanford was at 5.4 . The real issue was that ASU just ran so many more plays, 80 to 61. This wasn’t about “explosiveness,” this was about consistency. Stanford had plenty of big chunk plays, but ASU was far better at stringing together consecutive, positive gains. This has been the problem all year long for Stanford, and it’s why we have been fooled by healthy yardage totals that suggested the Cardinal had little problems moving the ball. What Stanford can’t seem to do is run or pass consecutively with success, even modest success. Two consecutive 4 yard gains, regardless of how you get them, yields 3rd and 2. A twenty-two yard pass, followed by an incompletion and a 2-yard run gets you 3rd and 8. Verdict: Myth. Third down isn’t killing Stanford. Inconsistency on all the downs is killing Stanford. Coach Shaw came out this morning and took complete responsibility for the offense’s failure. One can only hope that this is going to have both short term and long term implications. The talent gap between the best offenses in this league and Stanford is not commensurate with the massive gap in results. Stanford found consistent success throwing to its tight ends against the Sun Devils, yet didn’t do it nearly enough to get points on the board. The tight ends caught six passes for 57 yards. That’s a nine-yard average. That needs to be a point of emphasis for Stanford moving forward.

Stanford sits at 0-3 vs. ranked teams. Two of those games were close, but the latest was not. That’s not the trend fans want to see heading towards November. Stanford gets its harshest exam in two weeks, but before then, it faces an Oregon State team that is imminently beatable. The forecast currently calls for bad weather on Saturday, but frankly, where Stanford’s offense is concerned, the time for excuses is over. It’s now or never.





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\r\nScorched: The Myths and Realities of Stanford’s Flatlining\r\nOffense Stanford returned to the site of its most\r\ncomplete and meaningful offensive performance of 2013 and\r\ncommemorated it with its most embarrassing and meaningful\r\nperformance of 2014, continuing its season-long assault on the\r\ncollective will of the defense and special teams. After six games\r\nof successfully quarantining the toxic putridity of the offense,\r\nit finally seeped through and permeated the entire team, leaving\r\nthe Cardinal to stagger out into the desert night uncertain of its\r\nidentity, fate, and leadership. The excuses that masked or\r\nobfuscated the painful truths about this football team expired on\r\nSaturday night. Notre Dame proved itself a top team by going into\r\nTallahassee and playing Florida State right down to the final\r\nplay. USC, while not an elite team, has more talent than any team\r\nin the country and is still a contender for the South Division\r\nchampionship. Arizona State is also a contender for that title,\r\nbut there is a huge difference. ASU has been winning all year with\r\noffense. Its defense is straight garbage, sitting below the middle\r\nof the pack in most crucial categories. This is a unit that was\r\ngiving up over 200 yards a game rushing, 400 yards a game passing,\r\nand 34 points a game in conference. On Saturday night they\r\ndominated the Stanford offense in much the same way Notre Dame\r\ndid, without the excuses of the weather or the defensive pedigree\r\nto explain Stanford’s incompetence. Nothing happened on Saturday\r\nnight that was new. This team is underperforming on the offensive\r\nline, at QB, RB, and on the sidelines. Stanford has spent the last\r\ntwo years beating more talented teams on offense for two major\r\nreasons. One was that it had an elite defense that set the bar\r\nneeded for victory very low. The other was that it had an identity\r\nthat every offensive player seemed to embrace and understand.\r\nStanford won with Power running and play action passing. The\r\nreturn of the tight end as a viable threat provided hope that the\r\nlatter would return, and the promise of the offensive line\r\nsuggested that the Power running game would be the centerpiece of\r\nthis team. Instead, every aspect of Stanford’s offense has been an\r\nunderwhelming fiasco. I have been wrestling with the ideas that\r\nthe core problem has been about overestimating the talent on the\r\nfield or about the coaches mishandling said talent. The reality is\r\nthat the answer is probably a bit of both, but that doesn’t help\r\nmuch moving forward. In going over the numbers, it is interesting\r\nto take note of what has become myth and reality over the course\r\nof this season.

\r\n

\r\n“Turnovers are killing Stanford.” They’re not helping, and\r\nstatistically speaking, Stanford’s turnover margin sits at -7. The\r\nCardinal has fumbled 15 times this year and lost seven. The\r\ndefense has one interception in conference play, which ties it for\r\n9th with Colorado and Washington. Stanford’s never been a team\r\nthat thrives on turnovers. In 2013, their margin in conference was\r\nzero. The two previous years that number was +2, but keep in mind,\r\nthat was over a nine game schedule. However, for Stanford to be\r\nsitting at -7 with five conference games left is a bit unsettling.\r\nOregon State, by the way, has lost only two fumbles in conference,\r\nthe fewest in the Pac-12. Verdict: Reality.

\r\n

\r\n”Penalties are killing Stanford.” Overall, the answer is\r\nno. Here are Stanford’s Penalty rankings this year and the past\r\nthree:\r\n
\r\nYear     Penalties    Rank\r\n
\r\n2014      \r\n30           \r\n7th\r\n
\r\n2013      \r\n58           \r\n8th\r\n
\r\n2012       67      \r\n     7th
\r\n2011      \r\n58           \r\n3rd\r\n
\r\n

\r\n

The referees aren’t making it rain any more on Stanford than\r\nusual. I’d contend that the offensive line is responsible for more\r\nof those penalties than usual, but that remains to be confirmed.\r\nThe Tale of the One Holding Call all last year has\r\nmischaracterized the overall reality here. There have been a\r\nnumber of penalties that sustained drives for opponents this year,\r\nbut the truth is that penalties, in both amount and yardage, are\r\nbasically the same as they have been. Verdict: No More Than\r\nUsual.

\r\n

”3rd Down is killing Stanford.” Here is Stanford’s 3rd\r\ndown conversion performance against Pac-12 opponents going back to\r\n2011:\r\n
\r\nYear        Attempts  \r\n     Conversion %\r\n
\r\n2014       54\r\n(8th)          \r\n37% (10th)\r\n
\r\n2013       145 (T-5th)     47% (1st)\r\n
\r\n2012       145 (T-2nd)    40% (4th)\r\n
\r\n2011       124 (T-7th)     54%\r\n(1st)
\r\n

\r\n

 I had assumed that one of Stanford’s problems this year was\r\nthat it was getting to 3rd down too often. However, the numbers\r\ndon’t bear that out. Stanford’s had only three more 3rd downs than\r\nOregon. It’s on pace to face fewer third downs than it did in any\r\nof the previous three seasons. So what gives? Let’s start by\r\nchecking to see what kind of 3rd Downs Stanford faced in Tempe.\r\nStanford faced 3rd and less than 4 on only three of its 15 third\r\ndowns. I would bet the ranch that its teams in the last three\r\nseasons had far more thirds and short. And this leads us back to\r\nsecond and first down. Stanford ran the ball on first down 10\r\ntimes and gained a grand total of 22 yards. It passed the ball on\r\nfirst down 14 times and gained 99 yards. So pass more, right? Not\r\nso fast. Hogan only completed 7 of his 14 throws, so on at least\r\nhalf of its passes Stanford faced 2nd and 10. The big chunk passes\r\n(gains of 22 and 30 especially) on first down were great, but in\r\nterms of consistency, Stanford was shaky on first down, and it\r\nreally didn’t matter what was called. This created a scenario in\r\nwhich Stanford faced 2nd and short only twice the entire game.

\r\n

The Cardinal rushed six times on 2nd down for a grand total of\r\n24 yards. Two of those six were RFLONGS (gains of 2 yards or\r\nless). Hogan completed 5 of his 8 passes on 2nd down, but for only\r\n3.8 Yards Per Attempt. This is how you get to low leverage third\r\ndowns, and that’s how you get such a low third down conversion\r\npercentage. Stanford converted one third down of 10 yards to go or\r\nmore, ASU completed two. It doesn’t matter how “explosive” you\r\nare, third down and long is going to beat you more often than\r\nyou’re going to beat it. ASU faced 5 short third down conversions\r\n(less than 4 YTG). Stanford faced two. That was the story of the\r\ngame. Stanford’s offense essentially matched ASU in terms of yards\r\nper play, both rushing and passing. ASU actually only ran for 2.5\r\nYPA, while Stanford was a yard better. ASU passed for 7.1 YPA,\r\nwhile Stanford was at 5.4 . The real issue was that ASU just ran\r\nso many more plays, 80 to 61. This wasn’t about “explosiveness,”\r\nthis was about consistency. Stanford had plenty of big chunk\r\nplays, but ASU was far better at stringing together consecutive,\r\npositive gains. This has been the problem all year long for\r\nStanford, and it’s why we have been fooled by healthy yardage\r\ntotals that suggested the Cardinal had little problems moving the\r\nball. What Stanford can’t seem to do is run or pass consecutively\r\nwith success, even modest success. Two consecutive 4 yard gains,\r\nregardless of how you get them, yields 3rd and 2. A twenty-two\r\nyard pass, followed by an incompletion and a 2-yard run gets you\r\n3rd and 8. Verdict: Myth. Third down isn’t killing Stanford.\r\nInconsistency on all the downs is killing Stanford.\r\nCoach Shaw came out this morning and took complete responsibility\r\nfor the offense’s failure. One can only hope that this is going to\r\nhave both short term and long term implications. The talent gap\r\nbetween the best offenses in this league and Stanford is not\r\ncommensurate with the massive gap in results. Stanford found\r\nconsistent success throwing to its tight ends against the Sun\r\nDevils, yet didn’t do it nearly enough to get points on the board.\r\nThe tight ends caught six passes for 57 yards. That’s a nine-yard\r\naverage. That needs to be a point of emphasis for Stanford moving\r\nforward.

\r\n

Stanford sits at 0-3 vs. ranked teams. Two of those games were\r\nclose, but the latest was not. That’s not the trend fans want to\r\nsee heading towards November. Stanford gets its harshest exam in\r\ntwo weeks, but before then, it faces an Oregon State team that is\r\nimminently beatable. The forecast currently calls for bad weather\r\non Saturday, but frankly, where Stanford’s offense is concerned,\r\nthe time for excuses is over. It’s now or never.\r\n

\r\n

Tweet\r\n\r\n
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Stanford returned to the site of its most complete and meaningful offensive performance of 2013 and commemorated it with its most embarrassing and meaningful performance of 2014, continuing its season-long assault on the collective will of the defense and special teams. After six games of successfully quarantining the toxic putridity of the offense, it finally seeped through and permeated the entire team, leaving the Cardinal to stagger out into the desert night uncertain of its identity, fate, and leadership. The excuses that masked or obfuscated the painful truths about this football team expired on Saturday night. Notre Dame proved itself a top team by going into Tallahassee and playing Florida State right down to the final play. USC, while not an elite team, has more talent than any team in the country and is still a contender for the South Division championship. Arizona State is also a contender for that title, but there is a huge difference. ASU has been winning all year with offense. Its defense is straight garbage, sitting below the middle of the pack in most crucial categories. This is a unit that was giving up over 200 yards a game rushing, 400 yards a game passing, and 34 points a game in conference. On Saturday night they dominated the Stanford offense in much the same way Notre Dame did, without the excuses of the weather or the defensive pedigree to explain Stanford’s incompetence. Nothing happened on Saturday night that was new. This team is underperforming on the offensive line, at QB, RB, and on the sidelines. Stanford has spent the last two years beating more talented teams on offense for two major reasons. One was that it had an elite defense that set the bar needed for victory very low. The other was that it had an identity that every offensive player seemed to embrace and understand. Stanford won with Power running and play action passing. The return of the tight end as a viable threat provided hope that the latter would return, and the promise of the offensive line suggested that the Power running game would be the centerpiece of this team. Instead, every aspect of Stanford’s offense has been an underwhelming fiasco. I have been wrestling with the ideas that the core problem has been about overestimating the talent on the field or about the coaches mishandling said talent. The reality is that the answer is probably a bit of both, but that doesn’t help much moving forward. In going over the numbers, it is interesting to take note of what has become myth and reality over the course of this season.

They’re not helping, and statistically speaking, Stanford’s turnover margin sits at -7. The Cardinal has fumbled 15 times this year and lost seven. The defense has one interception in conference play, which ties it for 9th with Colorado and Washington. Stanford’s never been a team that thrives on turnovers. In 2013, their margin in conference was zero. The two previous years that number was +2, but keep in mind, that was over a nine game schedule. However, for Stanford to be sitting at -7 with five conference games left is a bit unsettling. Oregon State, by the way, has lost only two fumbles in conference, the fewest in the Pac-12.

Overall, the answer is no. Here are Stanford’s Penalty rankings this year and the past three: Year     Penalties    Rank 2014       30            7th 2013       58            8th 2012       67            7th 2011       58            3rd

The referees aren’t making it rain any more on Stanford than usual. I’d contend that the offensive line is responsible for more of those penalties than usual, but that remains to be confirmed. The Tale of the One Holding Call all last year has mischaracterized the overall reality here. There have been a number of penalties that sustained drives for opponents this year, but the truth is that penalties, in both amount and yardage, are basically the same as they have been.

Here is Stanford’s 3rd down conversion performance against Pac-12 opponents going back to 2011: Year        Attempts        Conversion % 2014       54 (8th)           37% (10th) 2013       145 (T-5th)     47% (1st) 2012       145 (T-2nd)    40% (4th) 2011       124 (T-7th)     54% (1st)

 I had assumed that one of Stanford’s problems this year was that it was getting to 3rd down too often. However, the numbers don’t bear that out. Stanford’s had only three more 3rd downs than Oregon. It’s on pace to face fewer third downs than it did in any of the previous three seasons. So what gives? Let’s start by checking to see what kind of 3rd Downs Stanford faced in Tempe. Stanford faced 3rd and less than 4 on only three of its 15 third downs. I would bet the ranch that its teams in the last three seasons had far more thirds and short. And this leads us back to second and first down. Stanford ran the ball on first down 10 times and gained a grand total of 22 yards. It passed the ball on first down 14 times and gained 99 yards. So pass more, right? Not so fast. Hogan only completed 7 of his 14 throws, so on at least half of its passes Stanford faced 2nd and 10. The big chunk passes (gains of 22 and 30 especially) on first down were great, but in terms of consistency, Stanford was shaky on first down, and it really didn’t matter what was called. This created a scenario in which Stanford faced 2nd and short only twice the entire game.

The Cardinal rushed six times on 2nd down for a grand total of 24 yards. Two of those six were RFLONGS (gains of 2 yards or less). Hogan completed 5 of his 8 passes on 2nd down, but for only 3.8 Yards Per Attempt. This is how you get to low leverage third downs, and that’s how you get such a low third down conversion percentage. Stanford converted one third down of 10 yards to go or more, ASU completed two. It doesn’t matter how “explosive” you are, third down and long is going to beat you more often than you’re going to beat it. ASU faced 5 short third down conversions (less than 4 YTG). Stanford faced two. That was the story of the game. Stanford’s offense essentially matched ASU in terms of yards per play, both rushing and passing. ASU actually only ran for 2.5 YPA, while Stanford was a yard better. ASU passed for 7.1 YPA, while Stanford was at 5.4 . The real issue was that ASU just ran so many more plays, 80 to 61. This wasn’t about “explosiveness,” this was about consistency. Stanford had plenty of big chunk plays, but ASU was far better at stringing together consecutive, positive gains. This has been the problem all year long for Stanford, and it’s why we have been fooled by healthy yardage totals that suggested the Cardinal had little problems moving the ball. What Stanford can’t seem to do is run or pass consecutively with success, even modest success. Two consecutive 4 yard gains, regardless of how you get them, yields 3rd and 2. A twenty-two yard pass, followed by an incompletion and a 2-yard run gets you 3rd and 8. Coach Shaw came out this morning and took complete responsibility for the offense’s failure. One can only hope that this is going to have both short term and long term implications. The talent gap between the best offenses in this league and Stanford is not commensurate with the massive gap in results. Stanford found consistent success throwing to its tight ends against the Sun Devils, yet didn’t do it nearly enough to get points on the board. The tight ends caught six passes for 57 yards. That’s a nine-yard average. That needs to be a point of emphasis for Stanford moving forward.

Stanford sits at 0-3 vs. ranked teams. Two of those games were close, but the latest was not. That’s not the trend fans want to see heading towards November. Stanford gets its harshest exam in two weeks, but before then, it faces an Oregon State team that is imminently beatable. The forecast currently calls for bad weather on Saturday, but frankly, where Stanford’s offense is concerned, the time for excuses is over. It’s now or never.

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