Pac-12 Whiparound: Week 7

It's the halfway mark for the Pac-12 season for most of the teams. Time to whiparound.



This week, the CoC found the first traces of clarity a midst the chaos that has defined league play since its inception.  Offensively, the league as a whole continued to show that defense may or may not be an optional part of the game, that the yardage that follows falling yellow flags matters a great deal, and that third down is a down best avoided but when it's not it often serves as the margin between victory and defeat.
   
The three highest scoring offenses in the Pac-12, Stanford, Cal, and Washington  State, all limit their third downs.  Yes, the Cardinal is the best 3rd Down offense in the Pac-12, converting at 57%.  But they also have only faced 3rd Down 47 times, only sixth-most in the conference.  Utah has faced 3rd down 49 times, fifth most.  And the Cougars have only seen 47 3rd Downs, tied for seventh in the league.  Yes, converting on 3rd Down is a big deal, but the claim here is that limiting 3rd Downs as at least as important.  Now on to los partidos:

Stanford 56, UCLA 35- As the BRO noted, Miss Piggy put on some fourth quarter lipstick to help the Bruins' attempt to veil just how thorough this beating was.  The score was 56-20 after three quarters, which is when Coach David Shaw pulled QB Kevin Hogan and more importantly, Christian the Lion.  McCaffery exploded for 369 total yards which included a school record 243 yards on the ground and four touchdowns.  UCLA's Josh Rosen, after throwing  a pick six to Elijah Holder that was almost immediately forgotten because of McCaffery and Francis Owusu's insane touchdown "Hug-ception", was game to keep fighting, and he ended up with 325 yards passing and three TD's but he needed 42 throws to get there (of which he completed 22).  Penalties, a UCLA bugaboo all year, showed up again to really hurt the Bruins.  UCLA drew 10 yellows for 93 yards, yards that an offense like Stanford's happily embraced on their way to an eight-touchdown performance.  Third down?  Again a problem for UCLA, who went 3-16 while the Cardinal went 5-12.  Again, I'd argue that the 16 tell you as much as the three about the night UCLA had, as the surging Cardinal moved to 4-0 in Pac-12 play.

Washington State 52, Oregon State 31- As maddening and perplexing as Stanford's loss to Northwestern to start the year was to Cardinal fans, the Cougars took their share of deserved criticism for face planting against FCS Portland State at home on the season opener. Since then, the Pirate has steadied the ship, and Washington State handled its affairs against the Beavers on Homecoming Day in Pullman. Luke Falk completed 78% of his passes and finished with 407 yards and six TDs.  Yet again, penalties and third down revealed the separation between the conquerors and the conquered.  The Beavs gifted 86 yards in penalty yardage and could only convert four of 13 third downs, while WSU went 8/12 on third down. 

Notre Dame 41, USC 31- The greatest inter-sectional rivalry in college football didn't lack for storylines before the game, and it certainly delivered excitement and dramatic swings once the hype stopped and the playing commenced. The Irish used a 17-0 final quarter to put down what had been a spirited Trojan effort.  As in the Stanford-UCLA game, the loser outgained the victor, in this case by a wide margin.  SC had 590 yards of offense while Notre Dame mustered up a healthy 476.  The Irish averaged 6.1 yards per rush and 10.7 yards per attack against a Justin Wilcox-coached defense that continues to search for consistent answers.  Ultimately, turnovers killed the Trojans' hopes for victory, as their fourth quarter possessions went punt, interception, interception, and end of game.  Adoree Jackson dazzled with an 83-yard touchdown reception, but he was a personal escort for Will Fuller's 75-yard touchdown reception.  Once more, SC seemed uninterested in committing to a running back having success.  Ronald Jones II averaged 12.2 yards on......six carries. The Trojans continue to make the life of the most talented roster in college football look so much more difficult than it needs to be.

Utah 34, Arizona State 18- Just as in South Bend, a nightmare 4th quarter undid what had been a legitimate upset bid for the visitors from Arizona State.  The Utes dropped a 20-0 final chapter on the Sun Devils, making what had been a close game a runaway.  The guy who did most of the running away was Devontae Booker, who broke the Sun Devils' spirits with a touchdown runs of 25 and 62 yards in the fourth quarter. Travis Wilson continued to play well, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing for two touchdowns.  The Sun Devils simply could not run the ball (15 net yards rushing).  On a night where both teams recorded five sacks, ASU was too one-dimensional to win the game.  The Sun Devils also went only 5/18 in third down, and while Utah didn't avoid third down, they definitely handled it by going 9/19 in that situation.  Again, the losing team had more penalty yardage (ASU had 46).  Utah's Super-punter Tom Hackett also played a big role, putting five of his eight punts inside the Sun Devil 20.  ASU averaged 3.3 yards per play on the night, as Utah put itself in a position to run away and hide from the rest of the Pac-12 South by the time the calendar gets to November.

Oregon 26, Washington 20- The 'Dawgs may have been in a Pavlovian slobber with a less than elite version of Oregon arriving in Husky Stadium, but once more the Ducks turned away UW, wasting a pretty competitive effort from the Husky defense. For the first time in 12 years, Washington held Oregon under 30 points.  For the first time in the past four years, the Huskies held the Ducks to less than 40.  All that added up to what concluded in disappointment for Washington and a stabilizing win for a Duck team that had been reeling from conference losses to Utah and Washington State.  Vernon Adams' return proved significant for the Ducks, who as a team managed only 3.3 yards per carry, well below their season average.  The Huskies had the ball and the chance to win the game with over a minute to play, but were forced to turn to redshirt Freshman K.J Carta-Samuels on its final drive due to a shoulder injury to Jake Browning. Adams threw for 11 yards per attempt while UW was left to lament both a 1-5 Red Zone TD rate and allowing Oregon to convert nine of 18 third downs.

Teams That Go Kaboom

Team
This Week
Total
USC
3
19
Cal
Bye
15
Arizona
4
14
Oregon
1
14
Stanford
3
12
Arizona State
1
12
UCLA
2
11
Colorado
1
10
Washington
1
9
Washington State
2
8
Utah
1
7
Oregon State
1
4

Say what you will about the turmoil in Troy, but SC remains the conference's premier team in terms of offensive combustibility in a good way.  Torching a Notre Dame defense definitely carries with it more credibility than breezing by some Sun Belt team.  The story of SC and Oregon thus far in 2015 seem to be of teams living up to their hype with the ball and disappointing dreadfully without it. No team climbed the charts like Rich Rod's Wildcats, who let the fireworks out against a game Colorado team.  Stanford and UCLA both broke loose against one another, as Stanford continues to show that the conference's best offense is more than a one-trick pony.  The Chosen Rosen giveth on a 70-yard TD pass in the first quarter, but he also taketh with a Pick Six that got the Cardinal started off on the right foot.  Add a Christian McCaffery kick return of 96 yards, and it's clear that  Stanford's combustibility isn't confined to the offense.

QB Corner

Player
YPA
INT
Kevin Hogan
11.1
2
Cody Kessler
8.5
3
Jared Goff
8.1
8
Josh Rosen
8.1
3
Anu Solomon
8.0
0
Sefo Liufau
7.7
2
Luke Falk
7.5
3
Travis Wilson
7.5
2
Mike Bercovici
6.5
4
Jeff Lockie
6.0
4
Seth Collins
5.6
3
Jake Browning
5.4
3

To be honest, the most interesting part of my QB study this week was what I didn't include in the table.  My plan moving forward is to stick with YPA as the foundational measuring stick for our gunslingers, because I really think it cuts across the dramatic diversity in passing offenses across the conference and gives you an indication of who's really making a difference for their teams in terms of efficiency. At this point, there's very little surprise about who the best quarterbacks in the conference are, with one exception.  Doubt has been cast on the Bakersfield Bandit, aka Kessler, for the fact that he doesn't seem to account for much of his own yardage.  That is to say many people see Kessler as a guy who throws five yard passes over and over and waits for Adoree Jackson or JuJu Smith Schuster to break one 80 yards.  As we can see in the tables above, it's happened enough times for Kessler to represent well on this chart, but without a chance to look at how much YAC yardage Kessler's teammates have accumulated (and how much the other QB's have enjoyed), it's hard to say for certain.  The eye test certainly suggests that Kessler is running a "four-yard cross and a cloud of dust" offense.
   
I was going to put third down passing percentage as the "guest" stat this week, and I was very surprised to learn that Kevin Hogan's completion percentage drops to 48% on third down.  I was similarly impressed with Travis Wilson's 68% completion percentage on the big money down.  However, I ended up opening a can of worms because Hogan's thrown most of his 42 third down passes on distances of seven yards or more.  Conversely, Luke Falk has had 17 throws on third and short (but has only completed eight of them.  I resolved that third down passing can be informative, but at this point I think the sample size is too small to draw any huge conclusions.  After all, Hogan converted two huge third downs on a key early drive against the Bruins, so it's not like he's been vexed by defenses,  especially when you factor in dropped passes, of which Austin Hooper had one on a nice third down ball from Hogan on Stanford's opening drive. Let's just say that for now, we're tabling this part of the QB Corner table.

Next Up

Cal at UCLA, Thurs. 10/22 6 PM ESPN- The Bruins hope the friendly confines of the Arroyo-Seco are more conducive to  mid-week success than Stanford Stadium was last week.  This game is one of the biggest that both have played in this rivalry.  UCLA desperately wants an end to a two-game losing streak that's cast some serious doubts on the depleted Bruins' legitimacy.  Cal could fall to two games out in the Pac-12 North with a loss. The Bruins have won the last two games against their Bear brethren, including last year's 36-34 thriller in Strawberry Canyon.  Cal hasn't beaten UCLA in Pasadena since 2009.  These are two of the best passing offenses and pass defenses in the conference, so look for turnovers and INT's to play a role as they have in Cal's loss to Utah and UCLA's loss to Stanford. Looking for a difference in this game?  Cal is the least-penalized team in league play, while the Bruins are the second most.  That mattered vs. Stanford, we'll see if the flags fly with the same frequency on home turf for the Bruins. Expect a late night here with points, passes, and stopped clocks all being plentiful in Pasadena.

Washington State at Arizona 1 PM Pac-12 Networks- No team has been battered like Arizona, and with Scooby Wright out for this one and fellow linebacker Derrick Turituri questionable, the 'Cats are going to have a tough time dealing with the ball-control passing of Luke Falk.  Running back Nick Wilson is also questionable, meaning Arizona will likely be hoping for an encore performance from Senior super sub Jared Baker.  The dual threat of Anu Solomon's passing and Jerrod Randall's running should put The Grinch in a foul mood as he game plans on behalf of WSU's vastly improved secondary.  It's hard to imagine this one being a defensive struggle, which is to say that it's a good bet both defenses will struggle.  The Pirate plundered his way to a win in Tucson two years ago, with Arizona getting its vengeance to the tune of a 59-37 shellacking in Pullman last season. Don't expect the Wildcats to have it quite so easy this year.

Utah at USC 4:30 PM Fox-  Do I double down on the talent once more? All season I have been overestimating USC's ability and underestimating Utah's ability to score.  And while it's true that Utah remains one of the least explosive teams in the league, the Utes are the Pac-12's second best offense in league play.  Utah is better coached, tougher, more physical, talented, and extremely solid in all three phases.  Record-wise, eyeball-wise, and stat-wise, this plays as a giant mismatch.  And yet, as Kyle Whittingham has noted, USC is still by far the most talented team in the conference. I think Utah wins this game, but I expect it to be close and I am one of the many who wouldn't be surprised to see the Trojans hand Utah its first defeat of the year. The Utes have lost starting tight end Siale Fakailoatonga going down in the ASU game, leaving a mash unit of back-ups and walk-ons to fill the void from the increasingly utilized receiving position. Look for Harrison Handley and Ken Hampel to replace Fakailoatonga, and look to see if it has any impact on a Ute attack that's been humming so far this year. SC defensive tackle Claude Pelon is questionable, which is only gonna encourage Utah to force-feed workhorse back Devontae Booker even more.

Colorado at Oregon State 7:30 PM Pac-12 Networks-  For followers of "The League," this is the Pac-12's answer to the Sacko Bowl.  This one is intriguing for no other reason than struggling teams tend to perk up when they see a perceived win on the schedule.  Colorado is desperately searching for a conference win a year after putting up a donut in conference play, and after some tough losses to Oregon and Arizona, this appears to be their best chance.  Woeful OSU probably feels likewise about the Buffaloes.  It would appear that Colorado has the upper hand at quarterback, with Sefo Liufau averaging a respectable 7.7 yards per attempt and Freshman Seth Collins taking his lumps at 5.6.  Predictably, these are two of the worst offenses and defenses in the Pac-12, so don't expect much in the way of aesthetics.  Maybe if Benny fought Ralphie at midfield, that'd provide some spectacle. I'd expect home field to help enough to keep the Beavs competitive in this one, and the loser to have the pole position for the #1 draft pick in the.....oh, never mind.

Washington at Stanford 7:30 PM ESPN- Kevin Hogan and the Big Boys of Stanford's offensive line close out the show once more, as they have become frequent participants in #Pac12AfterDark.  Husky insider Chris Fetters thinks that even though they sport the conference's second best run defense, UW will struggle to contain Christian the Lion and the Tunnel  Workers Union (Sounds like the headliners at a music festival, no?).  That does not bode well for a Husky offense that faces uncertainty at quarterback thanks to Jake Browning's injury as well as an improving Stanford secondary.  Washington is improved, talented, and will be the best defense the Cardinal has faced.  Don't expect the romp that we've seen the last two games for Stanford, but don't expect the Cardinal to slip up either. Washington is one of the youngest squads in the Pac-12, while Stanford has solid experience everywhere but its secondary, the area the Huskies are least equipped to exploit.  Even without linebacker Kevin Anderson, Stanford's defense should have enough to limit the Huskies and help send Washington home with nothing more than a moral victory at best.

So as Week 8 dawns in the CoC, what do we know?  First, Utah and Stanford look to be the most solid bets to survive the grind all the way to Santa Clara, but they are far from sure things.  USC and Oregon have underachieved, but there's still time for both to make a serious impact.  Oregon's defense showed a pulse, albeit against a weak Washington offense, but the Ducks still have plenty of Pac-12 North games left to be a factor.  It may be the Year of the Running Back, but the ease with which Arizona replaced Nick Wilson (for one game at least) and the problems the 'Cats had without Anu Solomon underscores the reality every year:  quarterback is the most crucial position.  Oregon got theirs back and has hope.
   
There are also more questions than answers, as usual.  What do we make of ASU?  They hung in on the road with Utah, but that USC loss looks to be the one that undoes the Sun Devils' season.  The survivor of the UC-Bowl on Thursday likely makes a solid run for the rest of the year, but which will it be?  Which of the Washington schools has really stepped forward?  If both remain legit, the presumption of Pac-12 South superiority may prove a false one.

As always, stay tuned.









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The Bootleg Top Stories

\r\nFollow\r\n@RJ_Abeytia\r\n\r\n
\r\n
\r\nThis week, the CoC found the first traces of clarity a midst the\r\nchaos that has defined league play since its inception. \r\nOffensively, the league as a whole continued to show that defense\r\nmay or may not be an optional part of the game, that the yardage\r\nthat follows falling yellow flags matters a great deal, and that\r\nthird down is a down best avoided but when it's not it often serves\r\nas the margin between victory and defeat.
\r\n   
\r\nThe three highest scoring offenses in the Pac-12, Stanford, Cal, and\r\nWashington  State, all limit their third downs.  Yes, the\r\nCardinal is the best 3rd Down offense in the Pac-12, converting at\r\n57%.  But they also have only faced 3rd Down 47 times, only\r\nsixth-most in the conference.  Utah has faced 3rd down 49\r\ntimes, fifth most.  And the Cougars have only seen 47 3rd\r\nDowns, tied for seventh in the league.  Yes, converting on 3rd\r\nDown is a big deal, but the claim here is that limiting 3rd Downs as\r\nat least as important.  Now on to los partidos:
\r\n
\r\nStanford 56, UCLA 35- As the BRO noted, Miss Piggy put\r\non some fourth quarter lipstick to help the Bruins' attempt to veil\r\njust how thorough this beating was.  The score was 56-20 after\r\nthree quarters, which is when Coach David Shaw pulled QB Kevin Hogan\r\nand more importantly, Christian the Lion.  McCaffery exploded\r\nfor 369 total yards which included a school record 243 yards on the\r\nground and four touchdowns.  UCLA's Josh Rosen, after\r\nthrowing  a pick six to Elijah Holder that was almost\r\nimmediately forgotten because of McCaffery and Francis Owusu's\r\ninsane touchdown \"Hug-ception\", was game to keep fighting, and he\r\nended up with 325 yards passing and three TD's but he needed 42\r\nthrows to get there (of which he completed 22).  Penalties, a\r\nUCLA bugaboo all year, showed up again to really hurt the\r\nBruins.  UCLA drew 10 yellows for 93 yards, yards that an\r\noffense like Stanford's happily embraced on their way to an\r\neight-touchdown performance.  Third down?  Again a problem\r\nfor UCLA, who went 3-16 while the Cardinal went 5-12.  Again,\r\nI'd argue that the 16 tell you as much as the three about the night\r\nUCLA had, as the surging Cardinal moved to 4-0 in Pac-12 play.
\r\n
\r\nWashington State 52, Oregon State 31- As\r\nmaddening and perplexing as Stanford's loss to Northwestern to start\r\nthe year was to Cardinal fans, the Cougars took their share of\r\ndeserved criticism for face planting against FCS Portland State at\r\nhome on the season opener. Since then, the Pirate has steadied the\r\nship, and Washington State handled its affairs against the Beavers\r\non Homecoming Day in Pullman. Luke Falk completed 78% of his passes\r\nand finished with 407 yards and six TDs.  Yet again, penalties\r\nand third down revealed the separation between the conquerors and\r\nthe conquered.  The Beavs gifted 86 yards in penalty yardage\r\nand could only convert four of 13 third downs, while WSU went 8/12\r\non third down. 
\r\n
\r\nNotre Dame 41, USC 31- The greatest inter-sectional\r\nrivalry in college football didn't lack for storylines before the\r\ngame, and it certainly delivered excitement and dramatic swings once\r\nthe hype stopped and the playing commenced. The Irish used a 17-0\r\nfinal quarter to put down what had been a spirited Trojan\r\neffort.  As in the Stanford-UCLA game, the loser outgained the\r\nvictor, in this case by a wide margin.  SC had 590 yards of\r\noffense while Notre Dame mustered up a healthy 476.  The Irish\r\naveraged 6.1 yards per rush and 10.7 yards per attack against a\r\nJustin Wilcox-coached defense that continues to search for\r\nconsistent answers.  Ultimately, turnovers killed the Trojans'\r\nhopes for victory, as their fourth quarter possessions went punt,\r\ninterception, interception, and end of game.  Adoree Jackson\r\ndazzled with an 83-yard touchdown reception, but he was a personal\r\nescort for Will Fuller's 75-yard touchdown reception.  Once\r\nmore, SC seemed uninterested in committing to a running back having\r\nsuccess.  Ronald Jones II averaged 12.2 yards on......six\r\ncarries. The Trojans continue to make the life of the most talented\r\nroster in college football look so much more difficult than it needs\r\nto be.
\r\n
\r\nUtah 34, Arizona State 18- Just as in South Bend, a\r\nnightmare 4th quarter undid what had been a legitimate upset bid for\r\nthe visitors from Arizona State.  The Utes dropped a 20-0 final\r\nchapter on the Sun Devils, making what had been a close game a\r\nrunaway.  The guy who did most of the running away was Devontae Booker, who broke the Sun Devils' spirits with a touchdown runs of\r\n25 and 62 yards in the fourth quarter. Travis Wilson continued to\r\nplay well, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing for two\r\ntouchdowns.  The Sun Devils simply could not run the ball (15\r\nnet yards rushing).  On a night where both teams recorded five\r\nsacks, ASU was too one-dimensional to win the game.  The Sun\r\nDevils also went only 5/18 in third down, and while Utah didn't\r\navoid third down, they definitely handled it by going 9/19 in that\r\nsituation.  Again, the losing team had more penalty yardage\r\n(ASU had 46).  Utah's Super-punter Tom Hackett also played a\r\nbig role, putting five of his eight punts inside the Sun Devil\r\n20.  ASU averaged 3.3 yards per play on the night, as Utah put\r\nitself in a position to run away and hide from the rest of the\r\nPac-12 South by the time the calendar gets to November.
\r\n
\r\nOregon 26, Washington 20- The 'Dawgs may have been in\r\na Pavlovian slobber with a less than elite version of Oregon\r\narriving in Husky Stadium, but once more the Ducks turned away UW,\r\nwasting a pretty competitive effort from the Husky defense. For the\r\nfirst time in 12 years, Washington held Oregon under 30\r\npoints.  For the first time in the past four years, the Huskies\r\nheld the Ducks to less than 40.  All that added up to what\r\nconcluded in disappointment for Washington and a stabilizing win for\r\na Duck team that had been reeling from conference losses to Utah and\r\nWashington State.  Vernon Adams' return proved significant for\r\nthe Ducks, who as a team managed only 3.3 yards per carry, well\r\nbelow their season average.  The Huskies had the ball and the\r\nchance to win the game with over a minute to play, but were forced\r\nto turn to redshirt Freshman K.J Carta-Samuels on its final drive\r\ndue to a shoulder injury to Jake Browning. Adams threw for 11 yards\r\nper attempt while UW was left to lament both a 1-5 Red Zone TD rate\r\nand allowing Oregon to convert nine of 18 third downs.
\r\n
\r\nTeams That Go Kaboom
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Team
\r\n
This Week
\r\n
Total
\r\n
USC
\r\n
3
\r\n
19
\r\n
Cal
\r\n
Bye
\r\n
15
\r\n
Arizona
\r\n
4
\r\n
14
\r\n
Oregon
\r\n
1
\r\n
14
\r\n
Stanford
\r\n
3
\r\n
12
\r\n
Arizona State
\r\n
1
\r\n
12
\r\n
UCLA
\r\n
2
\r\n
11
\r\n
Colorado
\r\n
1
\r\n
10
\r\n
Washington
\r\n
1
\r\n
9
\r\n
Washington State
\r\n
2
\r\n
8
\r\n
Utah
\r\n
1
\r\n
7
\r\n
Oregon State
\r\n
1
\r\n
4
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n
Say what you will about the turmoil in Troy, but SC\r\nremains the conference's premier team in terms of offensive\r\ncombustibility in a good way.  Torching a Notre Dame defense\r\ndefinitely carries with it more credibility than breezing by some\r\nSun Belt team.  The story of SC and Oregon thus far in 2015\r\nseem to be of teams living up to their hype with the ball and\r\ndisappointing dreadfully without it. No team climbed the charts like\r\nRich Rod's Wildcats, who let the fireworks out against a game\r\nColorado team.  Stanford and UCLA both broke loose against one\r\nanother, as Stanford continues to show that the conference's best\r\noffense is more than a one-trick pony.  The Chosen Rosen giveth\r\non a 70-yard TD pass in the first quarter, but he also taketh with a\r\nPick Six that got the Cardinal started off on the right foot. \r\nAdd a Christian McCaffery kick return of 96 yards, and it's clear\r\nthat  Stanford's combustibility isn't confined to the offense.
\r\n
\r\nQB Corner
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Player
\r\n
YPA
\r\n
INT
\r\n
Kevin Hogan
\r\n
11.1
\r\n
2
\r\n
Cody Kessler
\r\n
8.5
\r\n
3
\r\n
Jared Goff
\r\n
8.1
\r\n
8
\r\n
Josh Rosen
\r\n
8.1
\r\n
3
\r\n
Anu Solomon
\r\n
8.0
\r\n
0
\r\n
Sefo Liufau
\r\n
7.7
\r\n
2
\r\n
Luke Falk
\r\n
7.5
\r\n
3
\r\n
Travis Wilson
\r\n
7.5
\r\n
2
\r\n
Mike Bercovici
\r\n
6.5
\r\n
4
\r\n
Jeff Lockie
\r\n
6.0
\r\n
4
\r\n
Seth Collins
\r\n
5.6
\r\n
3
\r\n
Jake Browning
\r\n
5.4
\r\n
3
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n
To be honest, the most interesting part of my QB study\r\nthis week was what I didn't include in the table.  My plan\r\nmoving forward is to stick with YPA as the foundational measuring\r\nstick for our gunslingers, because I really think it cuts across the\r\ndramatic diversity in passing offenses across the conference and\r\ngives you an indication of who's really making a difference for\r\ntheir teams in terms of efficiency. At this point, there's very\r\nlittle surprise about who the best quarterbacks in the conference\r\nare, with one exception.  Doubt has been cast on the\r\nBakersfield Bandit, aka Kessler, for the fact that he doesn't seem\r\nto account for much of his own yardage.  That is to say many\r\npeople see Kessler as a guy who throws five yard passes over and\r\nover and waits for Adoree Jackson or JuJu Smith Schuster to break\r\none 80 yards.  As we can see in the tables above, it's happened\r\nenough times for Kessler to represent well on this chart, but\r\nwithout a chance to look at how much YAC yardage Kessler's teammates\r\nhave accumulated (and how much the other QB's have enjoyed), it's\r\nhard to say for certain.  The eye test certainly suggests that\r\nKessler is running a \"four-yard cross and a cloud of dust\" offense.
\r\n   
\r\nI was going to put third down passing percentage as the \"guest\" stat\r\nthis week, and I was very surprised to learn that Kevin Hogan's\r\ncompletion percentage drops to 48% on third down.  I was\r\nsimilarly impressed with Travis Wilson's 68% completion percentage\r\non the big money down.  However, I ended up opening a can of\r\nworms because Hogan's thrown most of his 42 third down passes on\r\ndistances of seven yards or more.  Conversely, Luke Falk has\r\nhad 17 throws on third and short (but has only completed eight of\r\nthem.  I resolved that third down passing can be informative,\r\nbut at this point I think the sample size is too small to draw any\r\nhuge conclusions.  After all, Hogan converted two huge third\r\ndowns on a key early drive against the Bruins, so it's not like he's\r\nbeen vexed by defenses,  especially when you factor in dropped\r\npasses, of which Austin Hooper had one on a nice third down ball\r\nfrom Hogan on Stanford's opening drive. Let's just say that for now,\r\nwe're tabling this part of the QB Corner table.
\r\n
\r\nNext Up
\r\n
\r\n
Cal at UCLA, Thurs. 10/22 6 PM ESPN- The Bruins\r\nhope the friendly confines of the Arroyo-Seco are more conducive\r\nto  mid-week success than Stanford Stadium was last week. \r\nThis game is one of the biggest that both have played in this\r\nrivalry.  UCLA desperately wants an end to a two-game losing\r\nstreak that's cast some serious doubts on the depleted Bruins'\r\nlegitimacy.  Cal could fall to two games out in the Pac-12\r\nNorth with a loss. The Bruins have won the last two games against\r\ntheir Bear brethren, including last year's 36-34 thriller in\r\nStrawberry Canyon.  Cal hasn't beaten UCLA in Pasadena since\r\n2009.  These are two of the best passing offenses and pass\r\ndefenses in the conference, so look for turnovers and INT's to play\r\na role as they have in Cal's loss to Utah and UCLA's loss to\r\nStanford. Looking for a difference in this game?  Cal is the\r\nleast-penalized team in league play, while the Bruins are the second\r\nmost.  That mattered vs. Stanford, we'll see if the flags fly\r\nwith the same frequency on home turf for the Bruins. Expect a late\r\nnight here with points, passes, and stopped clocks all being\r\nplentiful in Pasadena.
\r\n
\r\nWashington State at Arizona 1 PM Pac-12 Networks- No team\r\nhas been battered like Arizona, and with Scooby Wright out for this\r\none and fellow linebacker Derrick Turituri questionable, the 'Cats\r\nare going to have a tough time dealing with the ball-control passing\r\nof Luke Falk.  Running back Nick Wilson is also questionable,\r\nmeaning Arizona will likely be hoping for an encore performance from\r\nSenior super sub Jared Baker.  The dual threat of Anu Solomon's\r\npassing and Jerrod Randall's running should put The Grinch in a foul\r\nmood as he game plans on behalf of WSU's vastly improved\r\nsecondary.  It's hard to imagine this one being a defensive\r\nstruggle, which is to say that it's a good bet both defenses will\r\nstruggle.  The Pirate plundered his way to a win in Tucson two\r\nyears ago, with Arizona getting its vengeance to the tune of a 59-37\r\nshellacking in Pullman last season. Don't expect the Wildcats to\r\nhave it quite so easy this year.
\r\n
\r\nUtah at USC 4:30 PM Fox-  Do I double down on the\r\ntalent once more? All season I have been overestimating USC's\r\nability and underestimating Utah's ability to score.  And while\r\nit's true that Utah remains one of the least explosive teams in the\r\nleague, the Utes are the Pac-12's second best offense in league\r\nplay.  Utah is better coached, tougher, more physical,\r\ntalented, and extremely solid in all three phases. \r\nRecord-wise, eyeball-wise, and stat-wise, this plays as a giant\r\nmismatch.  And yet, as Kyle Whittingham has noted, USC is still\r\nby far the most talented team in the conference. I think Utah wins\r\nthis game, but I expect it to be close and I am one of the many who\r\nwouldn't be surprised to see the Trojans hand Utah its first defeat\r\nof the year. The Utes have lost starting tight end Siale\r\nFakailoatonga going down in the ASU game, leaving a mash unit of\r\nback-ups and walk-ons to fill the void from the increasingly\r\nutilized receiving position. Look for Harrison Handley and Ken\r\nHampel to replace Fakailoatonga, and look to see if it has any\r\nimpact on a Ute attack that's been humming so far this year. SC\r\ndefensive tackle Claude Pelon is questionable, which is only gonna\r\nencourage Utah to force-feed workhorse back Devontae Booker even\r\nmore.
\r\n
\r\nColorado at Oregon State 7:30 PM Pac-12 Networks-  For\r\nfollowers of \"The League,\" this is the Pac-12's answer to the Sacko\r\nBowl.  This one is intriguing for no other reason than\r\nstruggling teams tend to perk up when they see a perceived win on\r\nthe schedule.  Colorado is desperately searching for a\r\nconference win a year after putting up a donut in conference play,\r\nand after some tough losses to Oregon and Arizona, this appears to\r\nbe their best chance.  Woeful OSU probably feels likewise about\r\nthe Buffaloes.  It would appear that Colorado has the upper\r\nhand at quarterback, with Sefo Liufau averaging a respectable 7.7\r\nyards per attempt and Freshman Seth Collins taking his lumps at\r\n5.6.  Predictably, these are two of the worst offenses and\r\ndefenses in the Pac-12, so don't expect much in the way of\r\naesthetics.  Maybe if Benny fought Ralphie at midfield, that'd\r\nprovide some spectacle. I'd expect home field to help enough to keep\r\nthe Beavs competitive in this one, and the loser to have the pole\r\nposition for the #1 draft pick in the.....oh, never mind.
\r\n
\r\nWashington at Stanford 7:30 PM ESPN- Kevin Hogan and the Big\r\nBoys of Stanford's offensive line close out the show once more, as\r\nthey have become frequent participants in #Pac12AfterDark. \r\nHusky insider Chris Fetters thinks that even though they sport the\r\nconference's second best run defense, UW will struggle to contain\r\nChristian the Lion and the Tunnel  Workers Union (Sounds like\r\nthe headliners at a music festival, no?).  That does not bode\r\nwell for a Husky offense that faces uncertainty at quarterback\r\nthanks to Jake Browning's injury as well as an improving Stanford\r\nsecondary.  Washington is improved, talented, and will be the\r\nbest defense the Cardinal has faced.  Don't expect the romp\r\nthat we've seen the last two games for Stanford, but don't expect\r\nthe Cardinal to slip up either. Washington is one of the youngest\r\nsquads in the Pac-12, while Stanford has solid experience everywhere\r\nbut its secondary, the area the Huskies are least equipped to\r\nexploit.  Even without linebacker Kevin Anderson, Stanford's\r\ndefense should have enough to limit the Huskies and help send\r\nWashington home with nothing more than a moral victory at best.
\r\n
\r\nSo as Week 8 dawns in the CoC, what do we know?  First, Utah\r\nand Stanford look to be the most solid bets to survive the grind all\r\nthe way to Santa Clara, but they are far from sure things.  USC\r\nand Oregon have underachieved, but there's still time for both to\r\nmake a serious impact.  Oregon's defense showed a pulse, albeit\r\nagainst a weak Washington offense, but the Ducks still have plenty\r\nof Pac-12 North games left to be a factor.  It may be the Year\r\nof the Running Back, but the ease with which Arizona replaced Nick\r\nWilson (for one game at least) and the problems the 'Cats had\r\nwithout Anu Solomon underscores the reality every year: \r\nquarterback is the most crucial position.  Oregon got theirs\r\nback and has hope.
\r\n   
\r\nThere are also more questions than answers, as usual.  What do\r\nwe make of ASU?  They hung in on the road with Utah, but that\r\nUSC loss looks to be the one that undoes the Sun Devils'\r\nseason.  The survivor of the UC-Bowl on Thursday likely makes a\r\nsolid run for the rest of the year, but which will it be? \r\nWhich of the Washington schools has really stepped forward?  If\r\nboth remain legit, the presumption of Pac-12 South superiority may\r\nprove a false one.
\r\n
\r\nAs always, stay tuned.
\r\n
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