Arizona Shot Chart Analysis

The Bootleg's Basketball Stats Analyst Cameron Tana provides outstanding insights into the Arizona's shooting strengths and weaknesses. Let's hope the Stanford coaching staff has done its homework the way our guy has! Cameron has broadcast Stanford MBB games, both as Dave Flemming's color man in 1996-97 & as play-by-play announcer in 1997-98. He has also done NBA game charting for www.82games.com

Much has been made of ArizonaÕs defensive philosophy under interim Coach Kevin OÕNeill

Much has been made of Arizona's defensive philosophy under interim Coach Kevin O'Neill.  In fact, their games are lower scoring due to fewer possessions in each game, under 66 per game according to kenpom.com, when last year it was 69 per game and from 2004-2006 it ranged from 69-76.  Most recognize that the Wildcats are playing at a slower tempo this year than under Lute Olson, but that does not necessarily mean it is defense first in Tucson.  Arizona still ranks higher nationally in offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency.  Kenpom.com has Arizona's offensive efficiency at 109 points per 100 possessions, but the Cats have played such a tough schedule that its adjusted efficiency is 117, good for 15th in the country.  The adjusted defensive efficiency is 91.4, 49th in the country, an improvement over last year but similar to 2005 and 2006.

 

Since ArizonaÕs effective field goal percentage of 54.5 is its highest ranked (31st) offensive factor and there are twelve shot charts available on sportsline.com, it is worthwhile looking at the shot chart data.  As expected, defenses want to force Arizona to shoot two-point jumpers.  However, unlike Oregon, Arizona is not as efficient shooting threes as lay-ups and dunks so running out to the three point line is not a slam dunk decision.  The perimeter defenders need to be confident the help defense is in place to prevent lay-ups and dunks.

 

 

Layups and Dunks

2 Pt Jumpers

3 Pointers

Team

130-185

70%

98-259

38%

74-192

58%

Bayless

16-23

70%

15-49

31%

20-40

75%

Budinger

26-34

77%

24-72

33%

22-61

54%

McClellan

14-22

64%

14-35

40%

11-35

47%

Hill

40-50

80%

27-56

48%

0-0

 

Wise

15-24

63%

6-18

33%

14-30

70%

 

In the shot chart article about Oregon, the floor locations were ambiguous because the baseline area below the block overlaps with the key.  I have clarified the areas here as well as expanded the corner three-point area from eight feet to 11 feet from the baseline.  This is an area where the shooter does not have a good angle to bank it off the glass and is more like the NBA corner three-point location.  The most interesting stats for individual players shooting from these locations are Jerryd Bayless' 3 for 17 on jumpers within the key and Chase Budinger's 3 for 13 on two-point baseline jumpers outside the key.

 

Arizona Jumpers

FGM

FGA

Effective FG%

Inside Key

36

104

35%

Baseline 2 Ptr Outside Key

17

43

40%

Wing/Semicircle 2 Ptr

45

112

40%

Corner 3 Ptr

10

29

52%

Wing 3 Ptr

55

131

63%

Top of the Key 3 Ptr

9

32

42%

 

Really intriguing information on the shot charts is the differences in efficiency shooting from the left side and the right side.  Arizona is better shooting from the left side from three-point land, but is much better shooting two-point jumpers from the right side.  It looks like the right-handed Wildcats are not good at driving and pulling up on the left side.  Based on that, the defensive strategy would be to be more aggressive defending the three-pointer on the left side of the court than the right side.

 

 

 

Straightaway

Right of Key

Left of Key

Team

2s

41-113

36%

32-71

45%

25-75

33%

 

3s

9-32

42%

27-72

56%

38-88

65%

Bayless

2s

4-21

19%

7-16

44%

4-12

33%

 

3s

3-8

56%

6-13

69%

11-19

87%

Budinger

2s

10-25

40%

8-23

35%

6-24

25%

 

3s

5-11

68%

9-26

52%

8-24

50%

McClellan

2s

6-15

40%

5-11

46%

3-9

33%

 

3s

0-4

0%

5-14

54%

6-17

53%

Wise

2s

3-8

38%

1-3

33%

2-7

29%

 

3s

1-5

30%

5-9

83%

8-16

75%

 

Jordan Hill shoots many of his jumpers, including hook shots, from within the key so I divided his shots between the right half and left half of the key.  He is also more effective on the right side so if a defense wants to double-team him to make him pass the ball, it makes more sense to apply the double on the right side than the left side.

 

Jordan Hill 2 Pt Jumpers

FGM

FGA

Effective FG%

Directly in Front

0

1

0%

Right Half of Key

13

18

72%

Left Half of Key

4

15

27%

Right of Key

6

11

55%

Left of Key

4

11

36%

 


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