Inside the #s: 2009 All-Conf. Based Rankings

The Bootleg is proud to present its exclusive All-Conference-based (ACB) team recruiting rankings. In accordance with the probability of any given recruit making an All-Conference Team during his career, each school receives seven points per two-star, 12 points per three-star, 20 points per four-star and 34 per five-star recruit. Do the recruiting services underrate your school? Read on!

Based upon research which shows that 34 percent of five-star, 20 percent of four-star, 12 percent of three-star and 7 percent of two-star recruits to BCS schools make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their college careers, The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. In keeping with the above probabilities, each school receives seven points per two-star, 12 points per three-star, 20 points per four-star and 34 per five-star recruit. Dividing a school's total score by 100 predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers -- and provides a handy way of ranking recruiting classes. Do the recruiting services underrate your school? Read on!

We'll release ACB rankings monthly throughout the fall, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10 based upon how many difference-makers are likely to emerge. Obviously, some caveats apply: players can under or overperform their ranking; Scout's rankings, our source today, may have slightly different results than Rivals', the source of the original research. To not artificially reward a school which signs 33 players, only to run off eight before training camp, only a school's top 25 recruits count toward its team ranking. With no further ado then, here is a look back at the 2009 recruiting classes. Teams are listed as follows:

Rank. School (Scout.com's rank) Score
For example: 1. Ohio State (1) 478

Dividing a school's total score by 100 predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers. Note also that as 12.8 percent of all BCS schools' recruits make First or Second-Team All-Conference during their careers, a team's score can be compared to the BCS-conference average of 292 (12.8 points/recruit* 22.8 recruits/average class.)

2009 National ACB Class Rankings
1. Ohio State (1) 478
2. LSU (3) 470
3. Alabama (2) 462
4. Georgia (4) 403
5. North Carolina (6) 392
6. UCLA (5) 389
7. Oklahoma (10) 388
8. Texas (7) 387
9. Tennessee (8) 379
10. USC (9) 376
11. Penn State (11) 368
11. South Carolina (13) 368
13. Auburn (16) 362
14. Texas A&M (12) 358
15. Michigan (14) 354
15. Mississippi (17) 354
15. Mississippi State (19) 354
18. Stanford (15) 348

19. West Virginia (22) 335
20. Florida State (18) 333
21. Arkansas (20) 332
22. South Florida (25) 323
23. Florida (21) 320
24. Oregon (26) 313
25. Notre Dame (23) 311
BCS Average 292

Pac-10 2009 ACB Ratings
1. UCLA (5) 389
2. USC (9) 376
3. Stanford (15) 348

4. Oregon (26) 313
BCS Average 292
5. Arizona State (36) 268
6. California (34) 258
7. Arizona (47) 254
8. Washington State (43) 247
9. Oregon State (48) 239
10. Washington (66) 188

So Stanford drops in the national rankings to No. 18 and holds steady as a clear-cut third in the Pac-10. Two further trends are important to note. First, teams are not ranked linearly; that is, the difference between No. 1 and No. 6 is greater than the difference between No. 11 and No. 16. Nationally, Ohio State, LSU and Alabama lapped the field last year – the difference between the No. 3 Tide and No. 4 Georgia is as big as the difference between No. 9 and No. 23. In the Pac-10, the L.A. schools have some separation at No. 1 and No. 2, while teams five through nine are clustered pretty tightly. Second, the so-called "whales" matter a lot, because stars are not linear either; that is, the 14-point difference between a five- and four-star recruit is greater than the 13-point difference between a four and two-star recruit.

I think both trends cut against Stanford. First, No. 3 in the league and No. 18 nationally are great, but to crack the top ten and really challenge USC, Stanford probably will have to improve its recruiting as much as it already has from the Harris era. Second, Stanford signed just one five-star last year, and thus far in the 2010 class, no five-stars and just three four-stars (to 20 three-stars). Stanford's made the leap from two-star guys to three and four-star guys, but the next leap, the jump to four- and five-star guys, will be just as great – and likely just as rewarding on the field.


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