August's 2010 All-Conference Based Rankings

The Bootleg is proud to present its first-ever All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. We'll release ACB rankings monthly, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10. To keep from artificially rewarding a school which has more of its class full than others, each school's class is "filled" to 25 players -- how does that affect the Card?

Based upon research which shows that 34 percent of five-star, 20 percent of four-star, 12 percent of three-star and 7 percent of two-star recruits to BCS schools make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their college careers, The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. In keeping with the above probabilities, each school receives seven points per two-star, 12 points per three-star, 20 points per four-star and 34 per five-star recruit. Dividing a school's total score by ten predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers -- and provides a handy way of ranking recruiting classes. Do the recruiting services underrate your school? Read on!

We'll release ACB rankings monthly throughout the fall, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10 based upon how many difference makers are likely to emerge from the class. Obviously, some caveats apply: players can under or overperform their ranking; Scout's rankings, our source today, may have slightly different results than Rivals', the source of the original research. To not artificially reward a school which signs 33 players, only to run off eight before training camp, only a school's top 25 recruits count toward its team ranking.

To keep from artificially rewarding a school which has more of its class full than others, each school's class is "filled" to 25 players by assuming that each remaining player to sign will have that class' average point value. This measure may be inaccurate for schools that have signed very few players, so schools with under 12 signees are italicized. Obviously, the closer we get to Signing Day, the less extrapolating from super-small classes will be an issue (and, many prospects may receive an additional star). With no further ado then, here is a look at the 2010 recruiting classes. Teams are listed as follows:

ACB Rank. School (Scout.com's rank) Score
1. Ohio State (1) 478

Dividing a school's total score by 100 predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers.

2010 Projected National ACB Class Rankings
1. Texas (1) 474
2. Penn State (6) 472
3. Georgia (4) 461
4. Ohio State (15) 443

5. USC (12) 435
6. Florida (7) 434
7. Oklahoma (2) 388
8. Alabama (3) 387
9. Notre Dame (10) 379
10. Tennessee (11) 376
11. LSU (5) 368
12. California (20) 368

13. Texas A&M (9) 362
14. Michigan (13) 358
15. Washington (16) 354
16. Oregon (41) 354
17. Florida State (24) 354

18. Michigan State (21) 348
19. UCLA (42) 335
20. Georgia Tech (28) 333

21. Stanford (8) 332

22. Arizona State (35) 323
23. Illinois (30) 320
24. Nebraska (48) 313
25. Baylor (32) 311

Again, looks like there's a runaway group at the top, this time of six schools, and then a whole gaggle of programs giving chase. No. 9 Notre Dame is projected to finish closer to the No. 21 Card than the No. 6 Gators. Onto the Pac-10 now.

Pac-10 Projected 2010 ACB Ratings
1. USC (12) 435
2. California (20) 355

3. Washington (16) 342
4. Oregon (41) 340
5. UCLA (42) 329

6. Stanford (8) 320

7. Arizona State (35) 319
8. Arizona (46) 267
9. Oregon State (52) 264
10. Washington State (58) 246

Before you hit the panic button, remember that caveat about the italicized teams with small class sizes. A reasonable assumption is that one-third of those teams will finish ahead of Stanford – probably Ohio State, maybe Cal, probably not Georgia Tech or Oregon. If you adjust Stanford's rank up then, the Card are No. 17 nationally, which is in line with most observers' expectations, and No. 4 in the Pac-10, behind USC, Washington and, say, Cal. Plus, it's reasonable to assume Stanford's recruits are more likely to have stars added than other top teams' recruits, because Stanford recruits often come from further off the beaten path than a state school's or USC's. (That recruits have yet to receive all their stars means that we can't compare these scores to 2009's final scores.) Slide the Card up another position or two, to say No. 3 in the Pac-10 and No. 15 nationally. The uncertainty inherent to predicting six months ahead will decrease as National Signing Day approaches, but right now, No. 3 in the Pac-10 and No. 15 nationally is my best guess as to the Card's 2010 class.


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