Final Sept. All-Conference-Based '10 Rankings

The theory behind The Bootleg's All-Conference-Based recruiting rankings is sound, but putting it into practice is another matter entirely. That's why seeing USC and Florida (Scout's No. 11 and No. 8, respectively) as the top two teams in our Final September ACB rankings gave us an extra boost of confidence. Brush up on the theory, and see where the Card, No. 3 in the Pac-10, rank nationally.

The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. We'll release ACB rankings monthly, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10. To keep from artificially rewarding a school which has more of its class full than others, each school's class is "filled" to 25 players -- how does that affect the Card?

Based upon research which shows that 34 percent of five-star, 20 percent of four-star, 12 percent of three-star and 7 percent of two-star recruits to BCS schools make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their college careers, The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. In keeping with the above probabilities, each school receives seven points per two-star, 12 points per three-star, 20 points per four-star and 34 per five-star recruit. Dividing a school's total score by 100 predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers -- and provides a handy way of ranking recruiting classes. Do the recruiting services underrate your school? Read on!

We'll release ACB rankings monthly throughout the fall, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10 based upon how many difference makers are likely to emerge from the class. Obviously, some caveats apply: players can under or overperform their ranking; Scout's rankings, our source today, may have slightly different results than Rivals', the source of the original research. To not artificially reward a school which signs 33 players, only to run off eight before training camp, only a school's top 25 recruits count toward its team ranking.

To keep from artificially rewarding a school which has more of its class full than others, each school's class is "filled" to 25 players by assuming that each remaining player to sign will have that class' average point value. This measure may be inaccurate for schools that have signed very few players, so schools with under 12 signees are italicized. Obviously, the closer we get to Signing Day, the less extrapolating from super-small classes will be an issue (and, many prospects may receive an additional star). With no further ado then, here is a look at the 2010 recruiting classes. Teams are listed as follows:

ACB Rank. School (Scout.com's rank) Score, Change from Last Month
1. Ohio State (1) 478, +2

In August, the Card were No. 17 nationally and No. 4 in the Pac-10 after discounting schools who've signed under 12 2010 prospects (nominally 21st nationally and sixth in the Pac-10). This month, the Card climb slightly – to No. 17 nationally and No. 3 in the conference after discounting schools with puny classes (No. 20 nationally and No. 5 in the Pac-10 nominally). At the top of the rankings, we have a major shakeup, with USC and Florida vaulting to the lead, and Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Penn State taking major dives. (Note that because recruiting is a 24/7/365 process, rankings have changed slightly since this piece was written. Stanford, for example, has fallen to No. 8 on Scout.com. Obviously, all this new information will be included in our October rankings, now just a month away.)

2010 Projected National ACB Class Rankings
1. USC (11) 523, +4
2. Florida (8) 517, +4
3. Penn State (7) 507, +7
4. Texas (3) 495, -3
5. Georgia (5) 483, -2
6. Alabama (2) 459, +2
7. Tennessee (13) 447, +3
8. Ohio State (19!) 446, -4
9. Oklahoma (1!) 435, -2
10. Notre Dame (14) 417, -1
11. Michigan State (23) 413, +7
12. LSU (4) 410, -1
* 13. California (28) 409, -1

14. Texas A&M (10) 389, -1
* 15. UCLA (47) 386, +4
* 16. Nebraska (41) 375, +8
* 17. Illinois (36) 367, +6

18. Michigan (15) 361, -4
* 19. North Carolina State (38) 358, +7

20. Stanford (6!) 355, +1

21. Oklahoma State (9) 355, +5
22. Washington (16) 344, -7
23. South Carolina (25) 337, +3
* 24. Arizona State (46) 334, -2

25. Florida State (26) 334, -8

In the Pac-10 meanwhile, Washington is the biggest faller, from No. 3 to No. 6, while Wazzu climbs from No. 10 to No. 8. Oregon, Cal and UCLA are listed ahead of the Card, but none will likely finish there due to their small classes, so we're conservatively calling Stanford as a current third in the Pac-10, in a gaggle behind clear-cut leader USC. (Interestingly, Scout.com has Stanford, not USC, as its current Pac-10 recruiting leader. We can only hope this holds up.)

Pac-10 Projected 2010 ACB Ratings
1. USC (2) 523
* 2. Oregon (8) 410, +2
* 3. California (4) 409, -1
* 4. UCLA (6) 386, +1

5. Stanford (1) 355, +1

6. Washington (3) 344, -3
* 7. Arizona State (7) 334, -2
* 8. Washington State (10) 270, -1
* 9. Oregon State (9) 264
* 10. Arizona (8) 246

The uncertainty inherent to predicting months in advance will decrease as National Signing Day approaches. (All things told, though, this system isn't half-bad – I think its guesses of No. 1 USC, No. 2 Florida and USC the Pac-10's No. 1 are better than Scout's of No. 11 USC, No. 8 Florida and USC No. 2 in the league.) An interesting note is that the Pac-10 is signing far fewer players than other conferences right now. Seven of the Pac-10 schools get the proverbial asterisk by their rank for having signed fewer than 12 players, while only six Top 25 schools (and only three outside the Pac-10) are under 12 commits.

Bottom line: right now No. 2 or No. 3 in the Pac-10, No. 17 nationally and three future All-Conference performers is our best guess as to the Card's 2010 class.


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