Last week, Arizona State took care of business against Washington State. This week, we have an out-of-conference matchup we have to utilize. We're not playing for a top-ten finish; we're playing to win, and as such, we need to save the Pac-10 teams for that ugly last week of November and first week of December. So it's USC over Notre Dame, crossing my fingers.
Last week: 8-6. Michigan State (-4), West Virginia (-10), Houston (-2.5) and Oregon (-3.5) covered big. Duke (+16) covered bigger yet -- winning outright. Baylor (+28), Colorado (+33.5) and Georgia Tech (+3) won narrow. Our losses came with Indiana (+7), Auburn (-2) and Arizona (-3.5) face plants, Arizona State (-20.5) and Oklahoma State (-5.5) not winning by quite enough (the Cowboys won by five, ouch), and Houston and Mississippi State combining for 1,043 yards and 57 first downs, but only 55 total points, which is really hard to do. The teams combined for four interceptions and two fumbles – didn't anticipate that. Still, the buckshot strategy worked – we picked enough games to go +2 even with the missteps. We'll try to keep that this week.
This week: Boston College -2.5 vs. North Carolina State, Iowa +2 at Wisconsin, Georgia -7 at Vanderbilt, Auburn -13.5 vs. Kentucky, South Carolina +18 at Alabama (‘Bama only scored 19 last week folks), Arkansas +24.5 at Florida (Arkansas' quietly the best team you haven't heard of), Missouri +7 at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M -5.5 at Kansas State, Miami -14 at Central Florida, Washington +7 at Arizona State, Central Michigan -6.5 at Western Michigan, Cal -3.5 at UCLA
Interestingly, all but two of my 12 picks are for road teams. Let's hope fans across the country stay home.
Season: 20-16, +0.5 units on the money line
Last week: 3-0. Alabama, Florida and Virginia Tech won big. This is the strategy that went about .700 last year – pick top-five teams to cover. This year has been a messy season with fewer clear-cut top teams than the last few years (consider Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss tanking), but last week was a refreshing return to normalcy.
USC – 10 at Notre Dame. I'd take this at 21. USC has carte blanche from me – I'm riding them for as long as they keep posting 10-plus win seasons.
Texas -3 vs. Oklahoma: I take the team I think is going to win outright with such a small spread. Texas might be worse than Oklahoma, but they could also be the best team in the country – which the Sooners most definitely are not.
Virginia Tech -3 at Georgia Tech: The Hokies are clicking on both sides of the ball right now, with their gangbusters offense making a team known for its D and special teams complete. Georgia Tech plays well against the crappy teams, but against the big boys often gets blown out.
ASU -6.5 over Washington
Georgia Tech + 3 over Virginia Tech
Purdue +14 over Ohio State
As always, these are our best guess as to where all the teams will end up ranked, not power rankings that attempt to actually rank said teams on strength, as there are plenty of preexisting sources for that.
2009 Week 6 Top 25
5. Boise State
7. Ohio State
8. Virginia Tech
11. Penn State
17. South Florida
19. Oklahoma State
22. Georgia Tech
25. Notre Dame
Questions, comments, concerns? Dannovi on this site or email@example.com.
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