All Conf.-Based Rankings, Oct. 2009

The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. We'll release ACB rankings monthly, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10. Last month, Stanford was No. 17 nationally and No. 3 in the Pac-10, but how will the losses of Tai-ler Jones and Blake Barker affect the rankings?

Based upon research which shows that 34 percent of five-star, 20 percent of four-star, 12 percent of three-star and 7 percent of two-star recruits to BCS schools make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their college careers, The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. In keeping with the above probabilities, each school receives seven points per two-star, 12 points per three-star, 20 points per four-star and 34 per five-star recruit. Dividing a school's total score by 100 predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers -- and provides a handy way of ranking recruiting classes. Do the recruiting services underrate your school? Read on!

We'll release ACB rankings monthly throughout the fall, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10 based upon how many difference makers are likely to emerge from the class. Obviously, some caveats apply: players can under or overperform their ranking; Scout's rankings, our source today, may have slightly different results than Rivals', the source of the original research. To not artificially reward a school which signs 33 players, only to run off eight before training camp, only a school's top 25 recruits count toward its team ranking.

To keep from artificially rewarding a school which has more of its class full than others, each school's class is "filled" to 25 players by assuming that each remaining player to sign will have that class' average point value. This measure may be inaccurate for schools that have signed very few players, so schools with under 12 signees are ineligible. Obviously, the closer we get to Signing Day, the less extrapolating from super-small classes will be an issue (and, many prospects may receive an additional star). With no further ado then, here is a look at the 2010 recruiting classes. Teams are listed as follows:

ACB Rank. School (Scout.com's rank) Score, Change from last month
1. Ohio State (1) 478, +2

In September, the Card were No. 17 nationally and No. 3 in the Pac-10 after discounting schools who've signed under 12 2010 prospects. This month, the Card unsurprisingly fall slightly – to No. 21 nationally and approximately No. 4 in the conference after discounting schools with puny classes. Stanford has no five-star guys and just five four-star guys right now. Obviously player rankings will change, but to Scout's eyes, Stanford's class right now looks long on depth, but perhaps a little short on breakout talent.

2010 Projected National ACB Class Rankings
1. USC (11) 584, 0
2. Georgia (6) 545, +3
3. Texas (3) 532, +1
4. Florida (8) 531, -2
5. Penn State (2) 527, -2
6. Ohio State (19!) 524, +2
7. Alabama (4) 481, -1
8. Notre Dame (14) 477, +2
9. Tennessee (7) 475, -2
10. Michigan State (24) 463, +1
11. Oklahoma (1!) 435, -2
12. LSU (5) 429, 0
13. Texas A&M (10) 418, +1
14. Michigan (17) 394, +4
15. South Carolina (26) 379, +8
16. Miami (18) 372, +10
17. Washington (16) 371, +6
18. Pittsburgh (15) 366, +8
19. West Virginia (20) 365, +7
20. Auburn (21) 360, +6
21. Stanford (13) 359, -4
22. Oklahoma State (9) 359, -1
23. Clemson (23) 354, +3
24. Texas Tech (22) 344, +2
25. Virginia Tech (25) 337, +1

In the Pac-10 meanwhile, initial glances can be deceiving...

Pac-10 Projected 2010 ACB Ratings
1. USC (1) 584, 0, 3.9
*2. UCLA (5) 524, +2, 3.6
*3. California (4) 501, -1, 3.6
*4. Oregon (7) 492, -2, 3.4
*5. Arizona State (6) 480, +2, 3.3
*6. Oregon State (9) 371, +3, 2.6
7. Washington (3) 371, -3, 3.1
8. Stanford (2) 359, -3, 3.2
*9. Arizona (8) 339, +1, 2.4
10. Washington State (10) 305, -1, 2.5

Before we induce a riot, note that the Pac-10, for whatever reason, is a lot slower to fill its classes than the nation as a whole. Only about 25 percent of top-25 teams have 12 or fewer players signed, yet in the Pac-10 that number stands at six, a majority of the conference. With our scoring system assuming every player to be signed will be of the same quality as the players already signed, schools with a few good recruits will score higher than they should. Thus, I included the average star rating of signed players in the rightmost columns, and put an asterisk next to teams that are at 12 players or fewer. Right now, you can comfortably put Stanford ahead of Oregon State, Oregon and Arizona State, because their average star rankings will fall off as they fill up their classes. UCLA and Cal's will too, but those schools are off to such strong starts I don't know if Stanford can catch them. So Stanford's clearly behind USC and Washington, and behind either, both or neither of UCLA or Cal per ACB methodology. Splitting the difference places our Cardinal a projected fourth in the Pac-10. The 2011 class is off to a strong start and there's a lot to be done still in 2010, but right now, Stanford looks about on the same plane as the traditional Pac-10 contenders with this class, whereas they markedly gained on their competition with last year's class.


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