All-Conf. Based '10 Rankings: November

In the Pac-10 meanwhile, we have three clear recruiting tiers, per these rankings. USC is head and shoulders above anyone else. The middle group is UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford and Washington, all bunched pretty closely. The lowest group is Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona. Our analysis suggests Stanford is merely keeping pace with its Pac-10 foes, not gaining on them.

Based upon research which shows that 34 percent of five-star, 20 percent of four-star, 12 percent of three-star and 7 percent of two-star recruits to BCS schools make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their college careers, The Bootleg is proud to present its All-Conference-based (ACB) recruiting rankings. In keeping with the above probabilities, each school receives seven points per two-star, 12 points per three-star, 20 points per four-star and 34 per five-star recruit. Dividing a school's total score by 100 predicts the number of players in the class who will make First or Second-Team All-Conference at some point during their playing careers -- and provides a handy way of ranking recruiting classes. Do the recruiting services underrate your school? Read on!

We'll release ACB rankings monthly throughout the fall, allowing us diehards to track Stanford's recruiting class nationally and in the Pac-10 based upon how many difference makers are likely to emerge from the class. Obviously, some caveats apply: players can under or overperform their ranking; Scout's rankings, our source today, may have slightly different results than Rivals', the source of the original research. To not artificially reward a school which signs 33 players, only to run off eight before training camp, only a school's top 25 recruits count toward its team ranking.

To keep from artificially rewarding a school which has more of its class full than others, each school's class is "filled" to 25 players by assuming that each remaining player to sign will have that class' average point value. This measure may be inaccurate for schools that have signed very few players, so schools with under 12 signees are excluded. Obviously, the closer we get to Signing Day, the less extrapolating from super-small classes will be an issue (and, many prospects may receive an additional star). With no further ado then, here is a look at the 2010 recruiting classes. Teams are listed as follows:

ACB Rank. School (Scout.com's rank) Score, Change from Last Month
1. Ohio State (1) 478, +2

In October, the Card were No. 21 nationally and No. 4 in the Pac-10 after discounting schools who've signed under 12 for 2010. This month, the Card hold steady at No. 21 nationally and No. 4 in the conference after discounting schools with puny classes. At the top of the rankings, we have USC and Ohio State in the Top 7, despite neither school cracking Scout.com's Top 14. If history's any guide, our ratings will likely prove more accurate, as it's hard to imagine neither USC nor Ohio State closing strong.

Surprisingly strong classes belong to Michigan State and Texas A&M, given that both schools are just .500 and neither has the prestige of the other schools in the Top 15. Congrats to those staffs. And, of course, it will be interesting to see what happens to Notre Dame's class between now and national signing day should Charlie Weis be fired.

2010 Projected National ACB Class Rankings
1. Texas (2) 509, +2
2. USC (15) 507, -1
3. Penn State (3) 492, +2
4. Georgia (8) 483, -2
5. Florida (7) 477, -1
6. Alabama (4) 472, +1
7. Ohio State (21) 440, -1
8. Tennessee (6) 423, +1
9. Oklahoma (1!) 419, +2
10. Notre Dame (11) 414, -2
11. LSU (5) 412, +1
12. UCLA (20) 402
13. Michigan State (22) 395, -3
14. Texas A&M (14) 383, -1
15. Michigan (16) 358, -1
16. Auburn (19) 352, +4
17. Pittsburgh (18) 346, +1
18. North Carolina (31) 340
19. Oregon (34) 339
20. Oklahoma State (9) 338, +2
21. Stanford (12) 336

22. Washington (13) 334, -5
23. Miami (10) 333, -7
24. Georgia Tech (37) 329, +2
25. Nebraska (27) 324, +1

In the Pac-10 meanwhile, we have three clear recruiting tiers, per these rankings. Tier No. 1 is USC, head and shoulders above anyone else. The middle group is UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford and Washington, all bunched pretty closely. The lowest group is Washington State, Oregon State and, strangely, Arizona. This analysis suggests pretty strongly that while Stanford is keeping pace with its competitors in the Pac-10 with its 2010 recruiting class, this recruiting class is not the type of a class that can help distance Stanford from the middle of the conference and compete for national championships.

Pac-10 Projected 2010 ACB Ratings
1. USC (3) 507
2. UCLA (4) 402
3. California (6) 393
4. Arizona State (7) 368, +1

5. Oregon (5) 339, -1
6. Stanford (1) 336, +2

7. Washington (2) 334
8. Washington State (8) 239, +2
9. Oregon State (10) 223, -3

10. Arizona (9) 223, -1

Cal and Arizona State get the italics because of small class size, so that leaps Stanford to fourth. They're virtually tied with Oregon too, so No. 3 or No. 4 in the Pac-10, No. 21 nationally and three future All-Conference stars is our best guess as to the Card's 2010 class.


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