Wednesday Resume Report

What did Tuesday night's win against TCU do for the Aggies' RPI? What is A&M's chances to host a super regional? Aggie Websider takes a look at the Aggies' resume so far and discusses what they need to do down the stretch.

Our weekly "Resume Watch" continues with a look at the Aggies through their first 45 games, including 21 in Big 12 play. There are 11 regular season games left to play, six of which are in league play, plus at least three games in the Big 12 tournament.

The NCAA selection committee uses a large set of data when determining the field, 1-4 seeds, and the coveted eight national seeds. Commonly known as the "Nitty Gritty Report," it provides each team's overall and conference record, RPI, non-conference record and RPI, Road Record, Performance in Last 15 Games, and record vs RPI tiers.

The analysis you see here is based upon years of watching how the committee works, and a line-by-line delineation of the strengths and weaknesses in the A&M resume.

Overall Record: 38-7
A&M has the second best record in college baseball, and that's a strong number despite any perceptions on strength of schedule. Early season losses to Northern Colorado keep this from being a ridiculously gaudy 40-5, plus dropping a Rutgers game that the Ags seemed to have well in hand that further keeps them from 41-4. These losses are the worst on A&M's resume, but they came early enough in the year (specifically the UNC losses) that the committee is likely to largely ignore them. The committee won't even have to do that, though; there's no debating the value of this record.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

RPI: #8
My, my, how a week can change everything. Last Wednesday, this stat was at #22 and certainly not what a national seed wants on their resume (and no national seed has ever had an RPI that high). Fans awoke this morning to the news that the Aggies are in the Top 10 in RPI, and staying there is simple – just win. Boyd's World suggests that A&M can finish the season 7-4 and finish with a Top 8 RPI, but today it's at #X, and that's on the fringe.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

Conference Record: 18-3 in #4 RPI Conference
A&M started league play with a 3-3 mark but have swept five straight since then. Fans initially pointed at the Texas Tech and Saturday OSU losses as games that the team really needed to win, but it's difficult to get greedy with an .857 conference winning percentage. OSU's national seed resume is also strong, perhaps even stronger than A&M's, and the committee would see two of those three losses as "on the road, against a Top 10 RPI opponent. As it sits today, this is a truly outstanding mark and the success allows the Aggies to "struggle" to 3-3 in the final six games and still be sitting very pretty – and possibly secure a conference title.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

Non-Conference Record: 20-4
Aggie fans may be a bit spoiled by last year's ridiculous 28-2 record outside of Big 12 play, but this year's mark is also quite impressive. Last year's team did have the #1 Non-Conference RPI, a number that they rode to a host spot, but this year's team cannot hang its head on that due to a lower strength of schedule. The lower SOS mark is a combination of lighter scheduling plus teams who were strong in '07 (when they were scheduled, such as Ohio State, Arkansas, and Rutgers) having less competitive 2008 campaigns. Last night's road win against TCU, as well as the win at UH, helped that SOS and also secured RPI "bonus points" of .0012 each that are certainly helping A&M out.
Bomber's Pick: #1 seed

Road Record: 9-2
While some fan bases point to the number of games away from Olsen, Rob Childress' scheduling philosophy is certainly paying dividends for this team. The only two losses were in Stillwater, 3-2 and 6-4, and the wins include two against Top 50 RPI teams TCU and Houston. This type of record is typical amongst the Top 3 RPI teams in the nation (Miami, Florida State, and North Carolina) who are perceived a shoe-ins for national seeds. A pair of wins in Lincoln plus closing out the remaining mid-week OOC games (all on the road, vs Sam Houston and UTA) can easily make this national-seed worthy.
Bomber's Pick: #1 Seed

Last 15 Games: 14-1
Other than laying an egg against Rice, the Aggies have done everything right in the last few weeks. A&M will be hard-pressed to maintain this lofty figure, but a 7-4 number in the last eleven (given the strength of schedule) should be enough to keep them in the national seed hunt.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

Record vs RPI Tiers: 2-3 vs Top 25, 14-3 vs Top 50, 17-3 vs Top 75, 21-6 vs Top 100, 28-7 vs Top 150
The mark against Top 25 clubs isn't particularly impressive, especially compared to teams perceived to be strong national seed contenders, but the Aggies have an opportunity to improve with three games against #8 Nebraska. The Top 50 and 75 record is national-seed worthy, while the Top 100 record is one of the nation's best winning percentages against that tier.
Bomber's Pick: #1 Seed, fringe National Seed Worthy

The Last Word: If it all ended today, A&M would likely be one of the final national seeds and certainly hosting. Very few teams have a consensus national seed resume, and 2008 is no exception with only a few teams considered "locks" at this point.

What will it take to totally secure that national seed? Even with 11 games left, you can't point to just a small number since no team will get a national seed that takes a bad slide in the last ten games. A&M should lock up a national seed by winning both remaining mid-week games, taking 2/3 from Dallas Baptist, and winning the Big 12 title with no less than a 3-3 record in its final two series. Getting two wins against Nebraska, in Lincoln, secures the Big 12 championship and allows the Aggies a game or two of breathing room in their mid-weeks or even the Big 12 tournament.

Most of these seeds are typically locked up before the conference tournaments get done, but 2008 may be an exception. There could be as many as seven schools with fringe national seed resumes (A&M, OSU, Nebraska, Georgia, Stanford, South Carolina, and even Rice) duking out for four slots, and "what have you done for me lately" may be a final determining factor if all other figures cancel each other out.

Bomber's Pick: A&M earns a national seed by winning the Big 12 regular season outright plus four of five remaining non-conference games.

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