Bomber's Wednesday resume report

After a tough three-game skid, what are the Aggies' chances of earning a national seed and hosting a super regional? Aggie Websider's Lanny Hayes crunches all of the numbers and give his analysis as the Aggies head down the stretch.

Our weekly "Resume Watch" continues with a look at the Aggies through their first 53 games, including 24 in Big 12 play. There are 3 regular season games left to play, all in league play, plus at least three games in the Big 12 tournament.

The last week's performance is the first time that A&M's resume has taken a hit this season, at least in the last eight weeks, but is it enough to bounce the Aggies from their national seed pedestal?

The NCAA selection committee uses a large set of data when determining the field, 1-4 seeds, and the coveted eight national seeds. Commonly known as the "Nitty Gritty Report," it provides each team's overall and conference record, RPI, non-conference record and RPI, Road Record, Performance in Last 15 Games, and record vs RPI tiers.

The analysis you see here is based upon years of watching how the committee works, and a line-by-line delineation of the strengths and weaknesses in the A&M resume.

Overall Record: 42-11
The Aggies were the first team to reach 40 wins, and their 42 are currently the third highest in the country. A&M's recent slide is of more concern to fans than the committee, though, as the mark stands on its own. A&M "earned" the right to have a slide with 5 straight sweeps and a gaudy record in the last 25 games, but don't want to give much more ground entering the committee's first live meetings next week.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

RPI: #8
A&M's losses to Nebraska just made them flip-flop with the Huskers, but last night's loss to UTA didn't cost an ordinal ranking. Staying in the RPI Top 8 is a virtual must, and doing that simply requires winning. Boyd's World suggests that A&M can finish the season 2-1 and finish with a Top 8 RPI, a result that also wins the Big 12.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

Conference Record: 19-5 in #3 RPI Conference
A&M started league play with a 3-3 mark, then swept five straight series, and were three outs from claiming a conference title (and locking the national seed up) before a disastrous meltdown in Lincoln.. Despite the struggles, 19-5 is an outstanding conference record and the Ags still sit well in this regard. A&M's magic number over Nebraska is 2, and 1 over Oklahoma State . The best the Cowboys can do is tie the Aggies (if A&M is swept and OSU sweeps OU), while A&M and Nebraska cannot tie thanks to the Huskers' tie against OU.
Bomber's Pick: National Seed Worthy

Non-Conference Record: 23-6
Aggie fans may be a bit spoiled by last year's ridiculous 28-2 record outside of Big 12 play, but this year's mark is also quite impressive. Last year's team did have the #1 Non-Conference RPI, a number that they rode to a host spot, but this year's team cannot hang its head on that due to a lower strength of schedule. The lower SOS mark is a combination of lighter scheduling plus teams who were strong in '07 (when they were scheduled, such as Ohio State , Arkansas , and Rutgers ) having less competitive 2008 campaigns. The wins over Dallas Baptist were definitely an aid to the RPI, and while last night's UTA loss hurts, it will have no impact as long as A&M takes two from the Horns this weekend.
Bomber's Pick: #1 seed worthy

Road Record: 11-5
While some fan bases point to the number of games away from Olsen, Rob Childress' scheduling philosophy is certainly paying dividends for this team. The recent stumble accentuates a few concerns with the team, such as recent fielding woes and overall bullpen depth, but closing the deal ensures that A&M won't play a true road game after Friday's tilt in Austin .
Bomber's Pick: #1 Seed worthy

Last 15 Games: 11-4
Those four losses are tough to swallow right now, given that the Ags are on a three game losing streak, but things still look okay here. A 2-1 series win over Texas will end the Ags at 10-5, which is fair but not great.
Bomber's Pick: #1 Seed worthy

Record vs RPI Tiers: 3-5 vs Top 25, 19-6 vs Top 50, 22-7 vs Top 75, 26-7 vs Top 100
The mark against Top 25 clubs isn't particularly impressive, especially compared to teams perceived to be strong national seed contenders. The Top 50 and 75 record is national-seed worthy, while the Top 100 record is one of the nation's best winning percentages against that tier.
Bomber's Pick: #1 Seed, fringe National Seed Worthy

The Last Word:
"A season on the brink," indeed. We theorized four weeks ago that A&M would be a national seed if they win the Big 12 regular season title and end with a Top 8 RPI; and it certainly seems that (A) our prediction is true and (B) those goals are now the exact same.
Bomber's Pick: A&M earns a national seed by winning the Big 12 regular season outright, which requires two wins over Texas , or one win over Texas and a Missouri win over Nebraska.

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