Should I stay or should I go?

The Aggies had five underclassmen selected in the Major League Baseball first year player draft last week, but who is leaving and who is coming back? Aggie Websider's Dallas Shipp analyzes each player's odds of returning in 2009.

Jose Duran (sixth round, Milwaukee Brewers)
All signs indicate that the Big 12 Player of the Year will not be back next year. It sounds like he may have reached an agreement with the Brewers already, and after seeing what happened to Blake Stouffer this year after turning down fourth-round money a year ago, expect to see a new shortstop again in 2009.
Chance of returning: 10 percent

Kyle Thebeau (ninth, San Diego Padres)
Several teams tried to pressure Thebeau into committing to signing in earlier rounds because they really like his stuff, but he stuck to his guns and told them that he was not able to commit right away, otherwise he might have been the first Aggie taken in the draft. He's got plenty of leverage because of his major (petroleum engineering) and he knows it. Most students from the program will make $80-100K in their first year out of school. Meanwhile, the average starting salary in the minors is about $1,200. Plus, if he were to leave and come back to finish his degree down the road, it's not like coming back and finishing a history major. San Diego will have to throw lots of bonus money his way to get him to leave that kind of money on the table.
Chance of returning: 70 percent

Alex Wilson (10th, Chicago Cubs)
It's going to take a lot to get Alex Wilson to sign this year, and the question is, will Chicago pay that kind of money to a pitcher who hasn't thrown in over a year? But the Cubs might be willing to pay him, especially if he performs well in the Cape Cod summer league before the signing deadline in August. A lot of A&M fans don't know much about the pitcher, but if he's able to recover from surgery next year, he'll compete for a spot in the weekend rotation—that's why Chicago drafted him in the 10th round. Sources close to the situation believe that he wants to be a part of the Aggie rotation next year, which could be incredibly salty with Wilson and sophomores Brooks Raley and Barrett Loux.
Chance of returning: 60 percent

Luke Anders (16th, New York Yankees)
Anders is a crap shoot. The 16th round isn't typically going to make anyone rich, but with the New York Yankees, you never know. If they really like him, then they may be willing to throw lots of cash his way. He may want to stick around for his senior season though and have a chance to play with his younger brother, Nick, who will suit up for the Aggies in 2009. Those are probably the two biggest factors for Anders. Does he want to play with his brother? And, will the Yankees throw big money his way like they did with several picks last year who signed bonuses that were much higher than the MLB slot.
Chance of returning: 50 percent

Brian Ruggiano (23rd, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Ruggiano has already graduated and he'd have to start graduate classes in order to stay with the team. He had a decent year for the Aggies and the Dodgers are one of the big market teams who have a little more cash to throw around to their draft picks. With older brother Justin already in the majors, the Ruggianos have been through this before and they know what kind of leverage he'll lose as a senior. He's also good friends with Duran, who has all but reported to the Brewers organization.
Chance of returning: 30 percent

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