Chance for the Dance?

What are the chances that the Aggies will not be left wanting come NCAA selection time? Aggie Websider takes a look at all the possibilities that could allow them to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

The following is a look at each game left in the Aggies schedule, as well as an approximate chance of victory. With these numbers as an assumption, we then look at each avenue that the Aggies could take to make it to March, and find out the chance that Texas A&M lands in the dance.

A&M at Nebraska - Chance of Victory: 40%

Nebraska was not thought of early this season as a team that was likely to make a run at the dance, but that is exactly where they stand right now mainly due to their play at home. So far in conference they have knocked off Texas and Missouri in Lincoln, and handed Kansas State their worst defeat of the season. Texas A&M can win this game, but they will need strong, energetic, and disciplined play which has many times eluded them away from Reed Arena. The Aggies will almost certainly be 3-5 point underdogs.

A&M vs. Iowa State - Chance of Victory: 85%

Iowa State may be average at home, but they are pitiful away from Ames. The Cyclones have won exactly 2 games away from home, and none of which came against a Big 12 opponent. As A&M fans know, sometimes A&M can keep bad teams close, but there should be no reason or excuse for a loss at home against Iowa State.

A&M at Colorado – Chance of Victory: 85%

The wheels have completely fallen off the Colorado bus this year, with the Buffs posting a very Watkins-like 1-11 record through the first 12 conference games. While the Aggies have to hit the road again to notch a victory, Colorado has been more than willing to oblige in Boulder to the rest of the Big 12, with the only win coming against Iowa State at home in a 55-49 sloppy contest. A&M should win this game.

A&M vs. Missouri – Chance of Victory: 60%

As long as A&M can notch two victories with the first three games, they will still feel they have an outside shot at a birth in the tourney with a win in this conference finale. There should be a buzz around campus similar to every time Texas comes in town, and we have seen what happens when the electricity is peaked at Reed Arena. On the other hand, Missouri could be sputtering down the stretch as they face Kansas and Oklahoma not 7 days prior to the matchup against the Ags. Losses against these two may deprive A&M of a true quality win, but will also rob Missouri of the momentum needed to steal one in College Station. Texas A&M should be the favorite in this season finale.

A&M vs. Big 12 rd 1 – Chance of Victory: 75%

The Aggies will likely come in as a seed between 5th and 8th, which means a matchup against Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, or Baylor. Baylor has underachieved this year, but still has the talent to best A&M, but the other three should give A&M little trouble. If A&M can for once overachieve in this tournament, they should make it to the second round.

A&M vs. Big 12 rd 2 – Chance of Victory: 35%

Texas A&M has come close several times, but they have not yet defeated the top 4 of the Big 12. While this could change at a neutral site game, the Aggies must hope for a matchup against either Kansas State or Texas for the percentage of this game to move up significantly.

A&M vs. Big 12 rd 3 – Chance of Victory: 30%

In round three, the Aggies are almost guaranteed a matchup against Oklahoma or Kansas either in this round or the round previous, which should be a tall order for the Aggies to overcome. A&M has the depth this year to survive a late run into the tournament, but must find a go-to player for each game to come out on top. 30% may be generous or stingy depending on the matchup, but is a good overall average.

A&M vs. Big 12 rd 4 – Chance of Victory: 25%

If the Aggies make it this far, they must be playing the style of basketball they have shown glimpses of all year but have never really gotten on a roll with. After likely slaying at least one of the Big 12 big two, they will likely face the other, and will have to overcome great odds if they are to claim their first Big 12 tournament championship, as well as an automatic bid into the NCAA tournament.

Tournament Chances

Option 1 – Win the Big 12 Torunament
Selection Chance: 100%
Probability: .75 x .35 x .30 x .25 = .02 = 2%

If the Aggies win the tournament, they are in. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Option 2 – Win out with the season, lose round one.
Selection Chance: 80%
Probability: .40 x .85 x .85 x .60 x .30 x .80 = .04 = 4%

At a 9-7 record, the committee will likely give A&M the nod, regardless of the tournament.

Option 2a – Win out with the season, win round one.
Selection Chance: 100%
Probability: .40 x .85 x .85 x .60 x .75 = .13 = 13%

Win round one, and the selection committee nearly has to let them in, barring some crazy scenario.

Option 3 – Lose to Nebraska, win round two, lose round three.
Selection Chance: 60%
Probability: .60 x .85 x .85 x .60 x .75 x .35 x .70 x .60 = .03 = 3%

If the Aggies enter the tournament at 8-8, they will need to have at least one statement game to have a realistic shot at the dance.

Option 3a – Lose to Nebraska, win round three.
Selection Chance: 100%
Probability: .60 x .85 x .85 x .60 x .75 x .35 x .30 = .02 = 2%

With this, the Aggies will be on a 6 game winning streak through the Big 12, which will be nearly impossible not to acknowledge when deciding who gets in.

Option 4 – Lose to Missouri, win round two, lose round three.
Selection Chance: 50%
Probability: .40 x .85 x .85 x .40 x .75 x .35 x .70 x .50 = .01 = 1%

With no true quality win, even winning round two may not be enough for A&M to break the tourney, hence the low percentage.

Option 4a – Lose to Missouri, win round three.
Selection Chance: 85%
Probability: .40 x .85 x .85 x .40 x .75 x .35 x .30 x .85 = .01 = 1%

Even with an improbable win in round three, the Aggies are no lock for the tournament.

Option 5 – Other
Examples: lose to Iowa State and win the rest, lose to Colorado and win the rest, etc.
Other Probability: 5%

It would be impossible to go over every combination that Texas A&M could sneak into the tournament with, but judging from the previous percentages it seems that 5% would be an appropriate estimate of the sum of all the other possibilities.

Total Probability: .02 + .04 + .13 + .03 + .02 + .01 + .01 + .05 = .31

Chance for the Dance: 31%


It may not be an overwhelming percentage, but, if the initial percentages are close, this should give Aggie fans hope that Mark Turgeon can take his team yet again into the NCAA tournament. While they may not be looked at as a favorite to break the field, if the Aggies can pull off the win against Nebraska then this number skyrockets to over 50%. While you can see that, true to coach speak, there is not necessarily an elimination or "must-win" game, A&M fans should be glued to their seats watching each of the few remaining games left on the schedule.

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