When the Aggies and Longhorns meet up for a three game series this weekend, the collective series implications are at their highest since 2003. Both teams have a chance to eliminate the other from Big 12 title contention, and though the Longhorns are locks to be a #1 seed and first round host, both teams have national seed aspirations that can be enhanced or even totally squashed. Aggie Websider takes a look at A&M's postseason possibilities, and how this weekend's play will impact them.
Big 12 Tournament – The Aggies have clinched a berth in the Big 12 tournament, as they cannot finish lower than the current ninth (Oklahoma State) or tenth (Nebraska) place clubs.
Big 12 Regular Season Championship – The Aggies do not control their own destiny in the conference; in fact, that singular distinction only applies to currently second-place Kansas State. There are a plethora of possibilities throughout the league – certainly too many to game here – but what we do know is that A&M is eliminated from the conference title race with two losses to the Longhorns (a 2-1 Texas series win would put their final league record at 17-9-1, while A&M could do no better than 17-10). A 2-1 Aggie result gives them a fighting chance entering the final weekend, and their needed result there would depend upon how the OU/OSU and KSU/TTU series go this weekend. An Aggie sweep would obviously be the best result, but A&M hasn't beaten Texas in the regular season since Mark Johnson's 2005 club – winning the series is certainly asking enough at this point.
NCAA Regional Competition – Literally, unless A&M fails to win at least 2 games in their last ten (including the Big 12 tournament), they are a lock for the NCAA tournament. Even with the ten-loss worst case scenario, they'd be firmly on the bubble with a 31-26 record despite an RPI that will not dip below 30.
NCAA Hosting and #1 Seed – The latest unofficial RPI calculations suggest that a 5-2 finish to the season will hold A&M with an RPI in the Top 16, which is an unofficial lock point for teams from major conferences with competitive bids. A 5-2 finish would demand no less than 4-2 against Texas and Oklahoma, thus the Aggies could then finish no worse than third in the league – and a 37-18 record with a top 3 league finish and top 16 RPI will get the job done. A 4-3 finish would probably be okay too, as it would demand the Aggies still win one of the Big 12 series. A 3-4 mark to end the year probably puts the Ags on the road for the first round.
NCAA National Seed – Can that same 5-2 finish (4-2 against Texas/OU, 1-0 against Texas State) get the Ags a national seed? Maybe, but if and only if their 17-10 mark wins the league – the odds of which I'd place at 15-20%. If that happened, A&M's RPI would be in the 9-12 range, and making the Big 12 tournament championship (in that scenario) probably gets the job done. I just don't see a national seed with a 4-3 finish, even if the team went 4-0 at the tournament. Something crazy, like a very unlikely 7-0 finish to the season (I'd call the odds of this at less than 5%) would give A&M a Top 5 RPI and lock up a national seed. That kind of finish isn't necessary, but the above 5-2 scenario is the "easiest" path to potentially hosting a super regional series.
Aggie Digest Top Stories
Evans Leads Defensive MaturityTexas A&M senior safety Justin Evans met with the media Tuesday in advance of the Aggies Saturday road match-up with South Carolina.
Aggie DigestTuesday at 10:15 AM
Game Week Media: South CarolinaThe Texas A&M Aggies have solidified themselves in the top 10 heading into their week's SEC road game with South Carolina. The Aggies met with the media Tuesday in advance of this…
Aggie DigestTuesday at 9:52 AM
Post Game Media: ArkansasThe Texas A&M Aggies moved to 4-0 on the season with a 45-24 win over Arkansas inside AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Kevin Sumlin and several players spoke with the media afterwards.
Aggie DigestSunday at 7:22 AM
Game Balls: ArkansasThe Texas A&M Aggies squared off with the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday in their annual game in Dallas. The Aggies came away with an impressive 45-24 win.
Aggie DigestSunday at 5:45 AM
No. 1 DT Trying to Chop Down Recruiting ListWith scholarship offers from coast-to-coast Scout five-star and No. 1 rated defensive tackle Marvin Wilson is trying to find that right combination for his final three official…