As of right now, here are the Big 12 Standings. The numbers coincide with their seeds in the Big 12 Tournament if it were held today.
1) Kansas (14-3)
2) Kansas State (14-3)
3) Oklahoma State (12-5)
4) Oklahoma (11-6)
5) Iowa State (10-7)
6) Baylor (8-9)
7) West Virginia (6-11)
8) Texas (6-11)
9) Texas Tech (3-14)
10) TCU (1-16)
As you can see, there's some real mobility there. Not only is the Big 12 title on the line with Kansas traveling to Baylor and Kansas State going to Oklahoma State, but there are multiple spots that could change after that.
For instance, if Kansas State beats Oklahoma State and Oklahoma beats TCU, then the Sooners end up in the No. 3 spot rather than the Cowboys. And if Texas defeats Texas Tech while Iowa State beats West Virginia, then the Longhorns will jump up to the No. 7 spot head of the Mountaineers.
All of this is important given that Texas must win the Big 12 title to advance to the NCAA Tournament. And while that is certainly a long shot, Texas has wins over the current 4-5-6 teams in the league since point guard Myck Kabongo has returned. And if the ideal scenario plays out — the one listed above — Texas would likely only have to defeat one top-three Big 12 team to reach the Big 12 title game.
Here's what that would look like:
7) Texas vs. 10) TCU
8) West Virginia vs. 9) Texas Tech
Assuming the top seeds won, here would be the second round:
1) Kansas vs. 8) West Virginia
2) Kansas State vs. 7) Texas
3) Oklahoma vs. 6) Baylor
4) Oklahoma State vs. 5) Iowa State
Should Texas win that game, the Longhorns would be into the semifinals in a winnable against either Oklahoma or Baylor, two teams that Texas has defeated this season since Kabongo's return, meaning that Kansas State would be the only real upset that the Longhorns would have to pull to reach the Big 12 title game.
So even though Texas plays the middle game of the five Big 12 matchups tomorrow, it might behoove you to flip around the TV as the day goes on. Because while it will certainly be tough for the Longhorns to reach the NCAA Tournament, there's a very real scenario that could erase some of that difficulty from the equation.