How The 2016 Class Could Finish

Jan. 22 -- In our annual tradition, we provide our worst, average, and best case scenarios for how the 2016 class could finish...

It's become part of our annual tradition now, in the lead-up to Signing Day, to engage in some serious navel gazing and try to figure out where this class will be ranked in the final overall team rankings. As it stands right now, UCLA is in 13th place with 21 overall commitments, and right now it is very likely that UCLA takes a full class this cycle. Below, we present our worst, average, and best case scenarios for how the final push could go over the next two weeks.

Worst Case Scenario
Here's the class where basically everything goes wrong. Call this the 2014 scenario. UCLA closes with one big fish in Boss Tagaloa, but misses on pretty much everyone else, which leads to a couple of late pickups.

Boss Tagaloa: 208 points
Andrew Davis: 50 points
Donte Harrington: 75 points
Keyon Riley: 94 points
Tre Polamalu: 20 points

In this scenario, UCLA would have 26 commitments and Tre Polamalu would not count toward the total. That would leave UCLA with a total of 3196 points in the Scout rankings, which would be good for 7th place at this snapshot in time, and good for 18th in last year's rankings. So let's set that as the baseline -- UCLA will probably have a top-20 class. But, again, this is probably the worst case scenario, with a few current leans going elsewhere and several 50/50 battles going the opposite way. Let's take a look at what would happen if a few of those go UCLA's way.

Average Case Scenario
In this one, let's say Mique does stick with where he's been leaning for a long time now and opts for the Bruins. Tagaloa still comes, and then Brandon Burton, after getting some cold feet, decides that he really does want to be a Bruin. Of the Hansford/Moss battles, UCLA wins one, and gets Hansford, and that the Bruins convince one of Alloway or Perez to stay home (we'll go with Alloway). Here's what that class would look like:

Mique Juarez: 300 points
Boss Tagaloa 208 points
Brandon Burton: 205 points
Damian Alloway: 202 points
Aaron Hansford: 186 points
Keyon Riley: 94 points
Tre Polamalu: 20 points

In this scenario, with 28 overall commitments, UCLA would have three players not count toward the rankings: Polamalu (20), Johnny Den Bleyker (40), Austin Kent (60). That would leave UCLA with 3864 points in the Scout rankings in this class, which would be good for third in the rankings at this snapshot in time, and would have been good for 12th a year ago. So, if we had to look at this reasonably, we'd say UCLA is probably going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a top 15 class. But what fun is being reasonable?

Best Case Scenario:
This is the "UCLA gets everyone it has even a remote chance with" class -- or, we'll call it the Smokescreen Class. With Jones and Burton in the fold, Riley doesn't come, and even Polamalu decides he would rather look somewhere else. Basically, UCLA ends up with pretty close to the equivalent of its 2013 class in terms of potential impact on the program.

Mique Juarez: 300 points
Jack Jones: 300 points
Devin Asiasi: 214 points
Boss Tagaloa 208 points
Brandon Burton: 205 points
Garrett Rand: 204 points
Damian Alloway: 202 points
Aaron Hansford: 186 points
Adewale Omotosho: 195 points
Thaddeus Moss: 116 points
Francisco Perez: 88 points

At this point, UCLA would be seven over the 25, and some guys would almost certainly get dropped, but let's just pretend they won't for now. In this scenario, Den Bleyker (40), Kent (60), Moore (79), Jordan Wilson (87), Perez (88), Leni Toailoa (91), and Jake Burton (92) would all not count toward the total. That would leave UCLA with 4450 points in the Scout rankings, which would be good for No. 1 overall at this snapshot in time, and would have been good for the 4th overall class in 2015.


Bruin Report Online Top Stories