How the 2016 UCLA Class Could Finish (2.0)

Feb. 1 -- With many things changing in the last week, we decided to take a revised look at how the 2016 class could finish for UCLA...

UCLA, from what we've gathered, is closing really well on the 2016 class -- so well, in fact, that we've decided to revise our different scenarios for how the class could finish (here's our first version). At this point, there really isn't a bad case scenario -- even if UCLA finishes with our worst case scenario at this point, which we would not project, the Bruins will close pretty strongly with some top prospects. In any case, here's our revised look at the remaining prospects in the 2016 class (bear in mind, all of these classes in theory would include Tre Polamalu, but since UCLA will more than likely sign more than 25, his 20 points won't count toward the class total so we're not throwing his name in each time to simplify things).

Worst Case Scenario

Alright, this is the worst case scenario, and in it, UCLA still closes with three four-stars, including the No. 1 defensive tackle in the West, and also flips a key commitment from California in Francisco Perez. Still, this means UCLA loses Mique Juarez to Alabama, and one of the two out-of-state battles of Aaron Hansford and Brandon Stephens to another school (we'll go with UCLA getting Stephens, just because his official was more recent). So, here are the players and their estimated Scout point totals:

Boss Tagaloa (208)

Brandon Burton (205)

Perez (88)

Stephens (200)

In this scenario, UCLA would oversign by two, which means that two players in the class won't count toward the point total. In that case, Johnny Den Bleyker (who actually counts for 0 points as a long snapper) and Austin Kent (60) will not count toward the total. In the end, UCLA would finish with approximately 3709 points in the Scout rankings, which would be good, currently, for 5th place, and would have been good for 14th place in 2015, 9th place in 2014, 11th place in 2013, and 9th place in 2012. There's enough data there to support the idea that this would comfortably be a top 15 class, with potential of being a top 10 class.

Average Case Scenario

Now, the average case scenario starts to get pretty fun. There's good reason to think every player in this class has a really good chance of being a Bruin, and we're actually not taking too many risks in this one. Devin Asiasi, for example, is not included, but UCLA is very much in the mix for him. Same with Garrett Rand. This class includes all of the players from the worst case scenario, but adds in long-time lean Juarez and also throws in Hansford, a battle that we ultimately see UCLA winning. Here's what that class would look like:

Tagaloa (208 points)

Burton (205 points)

Perez (88 points)

Juarez (300 points)

Hansford (186 points)

Stephens (200 points)

So, in this scenario, UCLA would sign 29 players, meaning that the Bruins would have four more than are included in the Scout rankings. In that scenario, Den Bleyker, Kent (60), Marcus Moore (79), and Jordan Wilson (87) would not count toward UCLA's final total. The end result would be 4029 points in the Scout rankings, which would be good for No. 2 currently, and 11th place in 2015, 6th place in 2014, 11th place in 2013, and 5th place in 2012. Our average case scenario, then, is probably going to be comfortably a top 10 class with an outside chance at being in the top 5.

Best Case Scenario

One thing here: even in our best case scenario, we don't see UCLA landing Adewale Omotosho. Everything we heard immediately before the visit threw some water on the idea, and we haven't heard anything since the visit to support the idea that he's coming to UCLA. Maybe that changes, but we just don't see it. Everyone else here, though, we could see a scenario with them ending up at UCLA, and with Asiasi in particular, we think there's a really good chance he ends up a Bruin. So, this class includes every player from the Average class, plus two more big gets.

Tagaloa (208 points)

Burton (205 points)

Perez (88 points)

Juarez (300 points)

Hansford (186 points)

Stephens (200 points)

Asiasi (214 points)

Rand (204 points)

OK, so in this class, UCLA would have six more players than can be counted in the Scout rankings. In that case, Den Bleyker, Kent (60), Moore (79), Wilson (87), Perez (88), and Leni Toailoa (91) would not count toward the ultimate total. That would leave UCLA with 4268 points in the Scout rankings, which would be good for 1st place right now, 6th place in 2015, 5th place in 2014, 8th place in 2013, and 5th place in 2012. Pretty clearly, that class would be comfortably in the top 8 with a real opportunity to finish in the top 5.


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