Right now, there just three weeks left before the signing period, and Pac-10 recruiting is looking alarmingly pathetic for the 2010 class.
Of course, much can happen in three weeks. And there also seems to be an inordinate amount of recruits threatening to wait until the spring signing period in April.
The conference also doesn't collectively have a big amount of scholarships to give.
But looking at the Pac-10 conference's current state of recruiting for the 2010 class, and looking at the quality of recruits the programs are still recruiting, and even liberally projecting some more commitments, it's going to be tough for the Pac-10 to make this a good year in recruiting.
Here are the Pac-10 commitments to date:
Tyler Lamb, #14 SG
Maurice Jones, #40 PG
Garrett Jackson, #39 SF
Bryce Jones, #14 SF
Curtis Washington, UR C
Dwayne Polee, #27 PF
Daniel Bejarano, #8 SG
Keala King, #13 SF
Corey Hawkins, UR SG
Gary Franklin, #16 PG
Richard Solomon, #21 PF
Alex Rossi, #24 SF
Allen Crabbe, #25 SG
Dwight Powell, #11 C
Anthony Brown, #7 SF
John Gage, #17 C
Aaron Bright, #39 PG
Ahmad Starks, #25 PG
Desmond Simmons, #25 PF
Patrick Simon, #43 SF
We're not one for putting much stock in the national rankings, but if you look overall at the national rankings by position, the list above is not very impressive. There are only 2 prospects that rank in the top 10 at their position nationally.
Again, we don't believe much in the star-ranking system, but we'll use it here to serve a purpose.
In comparing the Pac-10 to the ACC or even the Big 10, the Pac-10 is hurting.
The Pac-10, with its ten teams, has 20 commitments to date. That is comprised of 11 4-stars, 7 3-stars and 1 2-star.
The ACC, with its 12 teams, has 29 commitments to date, comprised of 5 5-stars, 16 4-stars, 7 3-stars and 1 2-star.
The Big 10, with 11 teams, has 29 commitments to date, comprised of 3 5-stars, 11 4-stars, 13 3-stars and 3 2-stars.
The ACC has a whopping 21 recruits that are either 4- or 5-stars, while the Pac-10 has 11, and not one five-star recruit so far. And that's with just five commitments to the ACC's powerhouses, Duke and North Carolina – meaning, you can probably expect a few more 4- or 5-stars to commit to the ACC before the 2010 class is done.
And it's not as if the Pac-10 has an abundance of elite recruits on the line.
You can probably safely project UCLA to getting three more recruits who are more than likely 3- to 5-stars. The Bruins will probably finish with a top-15 class in the nation.
Josh Smith, the five-star center from Kent (Wash.) Kentwood, who has UCLA leading, would only opt for Washington instead of the Bruins, so at least that would bring the conference's first 5-star recruit into the fold.
There is Ray McCallum, the 5-star point guard from Beverly Hills (Mich.) Detroit Country Day, who we've heard has UCLA and Arizona leading for him.
There is Terrence Jones, the 5-star power forward from Portland (Ore.) Jefferson, who is still seriously considering UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Kentucky and Oklahoma. The word is that Oregon and Washington might have the best chance with him, so the Pac-10 has a decent chance of bringing him in.
There aren't any other 5-star prospects that a Pac-10 school has a good shot of getting at this time. There are maybe three or four 4-star guys that a Pac-10 school still has a serious chance to get.
As we wrote in last year's analysis, some Pac-10 schools that are traditionally among the best recruiting programs in the conference are struggling. Arizona, a school that would usually be among the top ten programs in terms of recruiting classes, is still trying to scrape its way back from the coaching change. It salvaged its 2009 class to finish ranked 12th in the country for recruiting classes (UCLA had the Pac-10's top class at #9). Hopefully it will do the same with 2010. It has just two scholarships to give overall, however.
Stanford had a woeful class in 2009, but looks to be making some strides with 2010. Its 2010 class currently ranks the best in the conference, and #11 nationally. There isn't another Pac-10 class that ranks among the best 15 in the nation to date.
Cal is now pretty much done with its 2010 class. USC, with five commitments, would still take another.
Oregon and Oregon State salvaged their 2009 classes a bit. Oregon signed a top-five prospect at his position, and Oregon State utilized the spring signing period to ink a decent five-man class. But as of right now, the Ducks and Beavers are looking pitiful for 2010. Hopefully Oregon can work its last-minute magic and sign a big-named national recruit. Oregon has two rides to give, while Oregon State has a total of four.
Washington, for coming off its first conference championship in half a decade, hasn't shown it's been able to parlay that into recruiting power for 2010. They do only have two scholarships to give for 2010, and if they could fill out their class with either Smith or Jones it would be considered a success. Washington State has just one or two to give, depending on a scholarship given to a walk-on.
Arizona State has just two scholarships to give.
So, many schools in the conference – Arizona, Arizona State, Washington State, UCLA, and Oregon State – brought in big nmbers in their 2009 classes, which limited how many scholarships collectively they had to give in 2010. Some programs, like Cal and Washington, have a good amount of current juniors, sophs and frosh combined, and don't have many scholarships to give to 201 as a result. So that will limit the overall impression of how well the Pac-10 will do in recruiting for 2010.
But still, even if the Pac-10 doesn't have a great amount of scholarships to give in 2010, the quality of the recruits the Pac-10 looks to get for 2010 isn't stellar overall, on average.
In last year's analysis of the 2009 class, we wrote about the concern over the conference not having much talent coming in, and how that didn't bode well for the conference's future. It would be premature to say that the Pac-10's collective 2010 class is a "down" year, with still so much recruiting left to be done. But, as of now, it looks like the conference will follow a fairly weak crop of recruits in 2009 with another one in 2010.