USC Preview

It's easily the most evenly-matched game in the UCLA/USC crosstown rivarly in many years. Both offenses will struggle a bit with their freshman quarterbacks. It should be a low-scoring, close game that could come down to the last possession...

FACTS AND FACTORS

-- UCLA travels 13 miles across Los Angeles to take on USC Saturday at 7:00 p.m in the Coliseum. The game will be televised nationally on FSN, with Barry Thompkins and Petros Papadakis calling the action.

-- USC is 7-3, having lost three Pac-10 games to Stanford (55-21), Oregon (47-20) and Washington (16-13).

-- The three losses guarantee USC its worst season since 2001, Pete Carroll's first year, when it went 6-6.

-- It also snaps USC's seven-year streak of winning the Pac-10 championship. The seven-year streak is the longest in Pac-10 history.

-- USC is currently ranked 24th by AP, and 22nd by USA Today/ESPN. It's the lowest ranking for USC since the end of the 2001 season when it was unranked.

-- The Trojans lead the all-time UCLA/USC series, 43-28-7, which dates back to 1929.

-- USC has won the last two straight, and nine of the last 10.

-- In games in the Coliseum, USC holds the edge, 37-20-7, with wins in the last five Coliseum games against UCLA.

-- Last year in the Rose Bowl, USC won, 28-7.

-- UCLA's last win in the series came in 2006 at the Rose Bowl, when the Bruins beat the Trojans, 13-9. The game was iced when UCLA linebacker Eric McNeal made the "McPick," an interception late in the game.

-- UCLA is 6-5 on the season, and 3-5 in the Pac-10. It's on a three-game winning streak.

-- With the win last week, its sixth of the season, UCLA is now bowl eligible. It is very much uncertain – and perhaps unlikely – UCLA will actually get a bowl bid, however. NCAA rules dictate that, for a team with six wins to play in a bowl game, every other team with 7 wins must be in a bowl.

-- Officials from the Roady's Humanitarian Bowl and New Mexico Bowl have requested credentials for the game, with both having expressed interest in UCLA. Representatives from the Holiday, Poinseittia and Emerald Bowl are also supposed to be in attendance, but with their primary interest being in USC.

-- Of course, if UCLA beats USC, and gets 7 wins, it would greatly enhance the Bruins' bowl aspirations.

-- USC is coached by Pete Carroll, who, in his nine years at USC, has presided over one of the most successful periods for any program in college football history, winning one national championship, 7 consecutive Pac-10 championships, and going to an NCAA-record seven straight BCS bowl games.

-- USC is still under a long-running NCAA investigation stemming from improper benefits received by former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush.

-- This week, Carroll has tried to inspire his team by showing them Kobe Bryant's recent behind-the-backboard shot and a famed YouTube video of water buffaloes battling lions.

-- It's the first time in 30 years the rivalry game has been held on Thanksgiving weekend.

-- It's also a rare night meeting between the two programs. It's actually the latest start time for a game in the series since 1945.

-- USC has a 30-game winning streak at home at night.

-- After a 26-year hiatus, this will be the second consecutive year UCLA and USC will wear their home jerseys to face each other, a one-time tradition that was ended in 1982 because of an NCAA rule. The rule has now been rescinded.

-- There are over a dozen players and coaches from both programs who have ties to the rival program. The most prominent, of course, is current UCLA Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow having been Pete's Carroll's OC at USC for 5 years during his most successful stretch, when USC won two national championships and its offensive players won three Heisman Trophies. The story between Chow and Carroll is well-documented, with Chow leaving for the NFL when he and Carroll clashed.

-- The winner of the cross-town rivalry is rewarded with the Victory Bell, a locomotive bell whose support frame is then painted in the colors of the team that possesses it for a year. The bell was originally given to UCLA in 1939, but then USC students stole it in 1941. It was made the award for the game's winner in 1942.

-- The Bruin statue on UCLA's campus is traditionally covered to prevent damage from USC students. However, Tuesday the statue was splashed with red and yellow paint.

-- USC is coming off a bye week. It reportedly is the healthiest it's been in over a month.

-- Since 1955, USC is 52-15-1 following byes. Six of the losses and the tie came at the hands of the Bruins.

-- USC, in its last game two weeks ago, lost to Stanford, 55-21. It was USC's worst home loss since a 51-0 loss to Notre Dame in 1966.

-- It was also Carroll's first loss in November since being at USC.

-- USC's last three losses in the Coliseum have been to Stanford.

-- The weather forecast for Saturday calls for 69 degrees and partly cloudy.

USC'S OFFENSE V. UCLA'S DEFENSE

It's definitely a bit of a down year for a USC offense.

USC's offense is fifth or worse in the significant Pac-10 offensive categories this season: scoring offense, rushing offense, passing offense, and total offense.

USC is best in its rushing offense but it's also the most surprising that it's only fifth in the Pac-10, averaging 181.2 yards per game. Oregon, Stanford, Cal and Arizona are all gaining more yards on the ground per game than USC.

We knew USC might not by in sync with its passing game, since it plugged in a true freshman quarterback and then was hit by injuries among its receivers.

But with a veteran, talented offensive line and a deep tailback position, you would have thought the Trojans would be pounding through its opponents on the ground.

It's done well, but it hasn't been dominating.

The USC OL hasn't been as good as billed, without the elite-level talent it's had in some recent years.

It definitely has experience. The entire unit returned from last season. Senior center Jeff Byers (6-3, 290) came to USC in 2006, when its starting quarterback, Matt Barkley (6-2, 230) was 13 years old. Senior tackle Charles Brown (6-6, 285) and senior guard Alex Parsons (6-4, 300) have experience, but don't have the can't-miss-NFL-guy stamp on them like past USC linemen.

Byers moved from guard to center when junior starting center Kristofer O'Dowd (6-5, 300) was injured and then couldn't earn his starting spot back.

Sophomore tackle Tyron Smith (6-6, 285) was hyped to be a star-in-the-making before the season but he's struggled a bit keeping pass rushers in front of him.

If it were any other team, you'd say they did well in creating running room for their running backs, who have averaged 5.3 yards per carry. But this year's USC OL simply doesn't blow defensive lines down the field like it has.

Matt Barkley.
Many USC onlookers blame the offensive issues on a lack of big playmakers. It is relatively true; when you think of USC this year, it definitely lacks the Mike Williamses, Reggie Bushes and Dwayne Jarretts.

You have to kind of sympathize a bit with junior tailback Joe McKnight (6-0, 190), who is an exceptional back with great moves and explosiveness. But he keeps hearing that he just isn't Reggie Bush.

Second-string junior tailback Allen Bradford (5-11, 235) would be starting on probably 100 other FBS teams, and he's had a very good season as USC's power back.

McKnight is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and Bradford 6.4.

And even though you always hear about USC's deep stable of running backs, it's just not reality right now. Stafon Johnson is out for the season after the weight-lifting injury, and it seems that C.J. Gable permanently resides in the doghouse. Marc Tyler has 5 carries for the season.

At wide receiver, junior Damian Williams (6-1, 195) is the go-to guy who looked questionable with an ankle injury, but was cleared to play Wednesday. He's not expected to be 100%, however, practicing in a brace. Junior Ronald Johnson (6-0, 190) is the speedy, deep-ball threat, but he hasn't been able to get completely on track since breaking his collar bone in August. Many USC followers were expecting freshman Brice Butler (6-3, 200) to be an impact guy all season, and while many didn't notice it during the Stanford game, he had a bit of a break-out day, catching 6 passes and one for a touchdown.

Senior tight end Anthony McCoy (6-5, 250) is a threat, but they don't look to him consistently. Early on McCoy was a favorite target of Barkley, but McCoy has been nursing an ankle sprain which has seemingly slowed him. He's supposed to be back to 100% for the UCLA game.

They do like to throw to their running backs, especially trying to get McKnight out in space.

So much has been written and discussed when it comes to Barkley. Carroll heaped praise on him early in the season, which many feel was excessive, and set up far-too-unrealistic expectations for him. It's unrealistic to expect him not to have some hiccups as a true freshman. He's made some very good throws this season, and some others that haven't been that great. But he's very capable of throwing for 300 yards and doing what has to be done for the Trojans to win this game.

Rahim Moore.
UCLA's defense is coming off three very good performances – against some pretty poor offensive teams. And in those games it still looked vulnerable against the run.

Junior defensive tackle Brian Price has been ripping it up against inferior o-linemen in recent weeks, but he'll be pressed to get loose and in the USC offense's backfield against double teams.

UCLA's secondary has been very good all season against the pass, but questionable against the run.

Rahim Moore, who leads the nation in interceptions (11), and star senior cornerback Alterraun Verner, will be looking for errant Barkely passes.

Advantage: UCLA. It's funny because most fans would naturally assume that USC would have the edge in this match-up.

But if you take away the USC offensive mystique, there isn't much else to support it.

If you look at just the stats, you have to give it to the Bruins. UCLA leads the Pac-10 in scoring defense (20.6) and turnover margin (+8). If there are two stats you'd want your defense to be superior in, those would be them.

But UCLA is also close to being first in passing defense (192.8 yards per game, to ASU's 192.7).

UCLA, all in all, has been very good defending the pass, and USC, all in all, hasn't been great in its passing offense. That will give UCLA the confidence to leave its secondary in man-to-man coverage and possibly dedicate more personnel to limiting USC's running game.

It's pretty easy to expect USC to have a pretty good day on the ground, especially early on. The UCLA defense has been notorious for giving up big-gainers on the ground, but it doesn't necessarily translate into many points on the scoreboard. UCLA's defense is also notorious for giving up big gains early, and then the defensive coaching brain trust making some adjustments and shutting it down, relatively.

So, expect McKnight to run for about 80 yards in the first quarter, and then probably 60 yards the last three quarters.

A big key for UCLA's defense to be effective is to put USC's offense in third-and-longs. The Trojans are 8th in the league at converting third downs (34.2), which is pretty typical when you have a young quarterback (UCLA is 7th in the conference). So, that will probably mean Defensive Coordinator Chuck Bullough, once he gets the hang of the USC offense, will mix things up a bit on first and second downs, perhaps sending pressure from different spots, and then challenging Barkley to make a play on third down. Perhaps we'll even see Akeem Ayers lining up at defensive end on first and second downs instead of exclusively on third.

It's also key that UCLA minimizes defensive penalties, to keep USC honest and having to earn its first downs.

UCLA'S OFFENSE V. USC'S DEFENSE

USC's defense simply isn't what it's been in recent years, and it's understandable. The Trojans lost eight starters from last season, including four first-day NFL draft choices, including their entire linebacking group.

Many USC fans, spoiled with how well USC has recruited in the last decade, expected the Trojan defense to merely plug in some guys and pick up right where they left off last season, but that hasn't been the case.

The linebackers, in fact, have struggled. Sophomore Chris Galippo (6-2, 250) has tried to step in to fill the shoes of departed Rey Maualuga at middle linebacker, but it hasn't been a smooth ride. He's experienced some growing pains, both figuratively and literally, being banged up for a good portion of the season. He's had a hard time moving laterally, which has created holes downfield for opposing running backs.

Taylor Mays.
Junior Michael Morgan (6-4, 220) had started every game at strongside linebacker, but he's nicked up and Carroll opted for converted freshman defensive end Devon Kennard (6-3, 255) to try to get more bulk at the spot for the Stanford game. Reports are that the USC coaches were encouraged by Kennard's performance, even though Stanford ran all over the USC defense.

Junior Malcolm Smith (6-1, 225) was the starter on the weakside earlier in the season, but then USC tried sophomore Shane Horton (6-1, 210). Horton struggled against Stanford so they're going back to Smith for the UCLA game. Smith has a shoulder issue he's playing through.

USC replaced three of its four defensive linemen from last season, too, and it's been a transitional year for the DL. Junior defensive end Everson Griffen (6-3, 280) has eight sacks on the season, second in the Pac-10. He's had turf toe but is expected to be recovered. USC is still looking for the guy at the other DE spot, with the contenders being either freshman West Horton (6-5, 255) or freshman Nick Perry (6-3, 250).

Inside, sophomore Jurrell Casey (6-1, 295) has generally received praised for playing well all season. He looks sloppy physically, but he's deceptively quick. Junior nose tackle Christian Tupou (6-2, 285), the returning starter, has been solid.

USC's secondary has been heaped with praise, and while it's probably a bit excessive, most of it is deserved. The Trojan defense has been strong for most of the season against the pass, led by All-American safety, senior Taylor Mays (6-3, 235). Mays has gotten knocked this season for not making the big hit, but it's difficult to argue with his 8.1 tackles per game (third in the Pac-10).

Senior strong safety Will Harris (6-1, 210) has been a stead rock in the secondary all season. The cornerbacks, seniors Kevin Thomas (6-1, 190) and Josh Pinkard (6-1, 215) have also started every game, and are big, fast, strong and experienced.

UCLA's offense has found some success through the air in recent weeks, but has also found some questions in its running game. Starting tailback Johnathan Franklin has been demoted due to fumbling, and senior fullback Chane Moline has been installed at the position. Moline has done well, gaining good yardage, especially late in games when the defense has worn down, and he, most importantly, has held onto the ball. But Moline isn't a play-breaking threat.

Kevin Prince.
Quarterback Kevin Prince has definitely found his rhythm, after struggling to find it early in the season when he was recovering from the fractured jaw. Prince, though, clearly has times when he's playing tight and not throwing as accurately as he can. It wouldn't be unexpected for Prince to struggle in this game, at least early on, while he works through the nerves.

Junior offensive lineman Jake Dean looks like he'll get the starting nod at right guard this week after playing well last week against Arizona State. The right guard spot has been through three guys so far this season due to injury.

Advantage: USC. USC's defense has basically been on its heels since the second half of the Notre Dame game October 17th. Even the illustrious secondary hasn't been great, with opposing quarterbacks finding a good amount of holes in USC's coverage. The woes of the rushing defense have been well-documented, with opposing tailbacks being able to slip into the secondary pretty easily because of poor linebacker play.

It's probably going to be a different story on Saturday, though. USC's defense is young overall, without a senior and six new starters among its starting front seven, but the feeling is that the USC coaches, after a season of trying to find the right guys, finally have. Injuries, too, have been a factor, with just about everyone on USC's defense having been nicked up sometime this season. But USC is now the healthiest it's been in a while because of the bye week.

UCLA's offensive line did fairly well protecting Prince last week against ASU, which is a good pass-rushing defense. But in trying to protect Prince against the Sun Devils, UCLA had to dedicate extra guys to pass protection, which many times limited them to just two receivers in the pattern. As a result, UCLA didn't look down field much. You can probably expect the same thing against USC, which is the best pass-rushing defense in the conference with 32 sacks on the season.

Prince has become an unexpected threat running the ball this season, with deceptive speed. He had the 78-yard touchdown run against Washington State, and probably the offensive play of the game when he scrambled for a first down last week against Arizona State. Norm Chow, to get Prince away from USC's pressure, will roll him out, which also gives him a chance to tuck and run. Watch for Prince, as he did against Arizona State when he ran for 42 yards, to gain some solid yardage with his legs.

UCLA's young offense, however, with many of the youngsters playing in their first game in the Coliseum, will probably be nervous and out-of-sync. That's the best remedy for a struggling USC defense.

Special Teams

One of the biggest factors in this game is the news that Damian Williams, one of the best punt returners in the nation, probably won't be returning punts Saturday due to his ankle injury. Williams was averaging 16 yards per return and scored two touchdowns on returns this season. It might not be too much of a drop off to Joe McKnight, however.

USC hasn't done much with its kick-off returns, with C.J. Gable the primary returner, which is good news for UCLA; if UCLA has a weakness in its special teams it's kick-off coverage, consistently allowing opposing teams to bring the ball out to the 35.

USC's punter, Jacob Harfman, is last in the Pac-10 in punting, averaging 39.3 yards per punt. Place kicker Jordan Congdon has been accurate from 40 yards and in, but doesn't have much of a range beyond that.

UCLA's place kicker, Kai Forbath, is one of three finalists for the Lou Groza Award, and the Bruins' punter, Jeff Locke, is ninth in the country, averaging 44 yards per punt.

Prediction

There are definitely some un-USC-like aspects to this year's USC team. Most of it stems from a general lack of experience across the board for the Trojans, particularly in its front seven on defense.

What is interesting is USC being 8th in the Pac-10 in time of possession, while UCLA is fifth. The Trojans haven't been able to sustain drives well this year, faltering on third downs and not being able to be consistent in its passing game.

That gives UCLA a fighting chance in this game. The Bruins' game plan is pretty clearly going to be: Play a clean game, one that emphasizes ball control and field position. If UCLA can do that, and keep close to USC on the scoreboard, not handing over points through turnovers, it's anyone's game in the fourth quarter. While many fans want to see UCLA open it up and air it out on offense, and be really aggressive on defense in blitzing, neither might be the smart strategy against USC. The USC defense's vulnerability to the run could give UCLA a chance to eat up clock on the ground. Its strength defensively is easily in its pass defense, with a strong, experienced secondary and a great pass rush, so it makes sense that UCLA won't put too much pressure on Prince. On the other side of the ball, USC's offense has struggled to sustain drives, so it might behoove UCLA's defense to play back in a zone, not over-commit with too much pressure, take away USC's big play, and make Barkley have to execute and drive the Trojans down the field.

With, of course, some blitzing sprinkled in to keep Barkley guessing.

With both teams having somewhat struggling offenses, and better defenses, it probably means a low-scoring game, one that could be determined by who turns over the ball the most.

This is easily the most evenly matched game in the UCLA/USC series in many years.

The game will probably be a fairly boring one, with both offenses unable to sustain drives or put the ball in the endzone easily. Expect both teams to get points from their defenses. So, the game should probably not be too exciting -- until the fourth quarter when it very well might be decided on the last possession.

If the game were being played in the Rose Bowl and not the Coliseum, I'd give the nod to the Bruins. But with UCLA having such a young team, with so many kids who haven't even played in the Coliseum before, in a UCLA/USC rivalry atmosphere, that tips it over to USC. But there's definitely enough here to believe UCLA could win this game.

USC 27
UCLA 23


Bruin Report Online Top Stories

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-- UCLA travels 13 miles across Los Angeles to take on USC Saturday at 7:00 p.m in the Coliseum. The game will be televised nationally on FSN, with Barry Thompkins and Petros Papadakis calling the action.

-- USC is 7-3, having lost three Pac-10 games to Stanford (55-21), Oregon (47-20) and Washington (16-13).

-- The three losses guarantee USC its worst season since 2001, Pete Carroll's first year, when it went 6-6.

-- It also snaps USC's seven-year streak of winning the Pac-10 championship. The seven-year streak is the longest in Pac-10 history.

-- USC is currently ranked 24th by AP, and 22nd by USA Today/ESPN. It's the lowest ranking for USC since the end of the 2001 season when it was unranked.

-- The Trojans lead the all-time UCLA/USC series, 43-28-7, which dates back to 1929.

-- USC has won the last two straight, and nine of the last 10.

-- In games in the Coliseum, USC holds the edge, 37-20-7, with wins in the last five Coliseum games against UCLA.

-- Last year in the Rose Bowl, USC won, 28-7.

-- UCLA's last win in the series came in 2006 at the Rose Bowl, when the Bruins beat the Trojans, 13-9. The game was iced when UCLA linebacker Eric McNeal made the \"McPick,\" an interception late in the game.

-- UCLA is 6-5 on the season, and 3-5 in the Pac-10. It's on a three-game winning streak.

-- With the win last week, its sixth of the season, UCLA is now bowl eligible. It is very much uncertain – and perhaps unlikely – UCLA will actually get a bowl bid, however. NCAA rules dictate that, for a team with six wins to play in a bowl game, every other team with 7 wins must be in a bowl.

-- Officials from the Roady's Humanitarian Bowl and New Mexico Bowl have requested credentials for the game, with both having expressed interest in UCLA. Representatives from the Holiday, Poinseittia and Emerald Bowl are also supposed to be in attendance, but with their primary interest being in USC.

-- Of course, if UCLA beats USC, and gets 7 wins, it would greatly enhance the Bruins' bowl aspirations.

-- USC is coached by Pete Carroll, who, in his nine years at USC, has presided over one of the most successful periods for any program in college football history, winning one national championship, 7 consecutive Pac-10 championships, and going to an NCAA-record seven straight BCS bowl games.

-- USC is still under a long-running NCAA investigation stemming from improper benefits received by former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush.

-- This week, Carroll has tried to inspire his team by showing them Kobe Bryant's recent behind-the-backboard shot and a famed YouTube video of water buffaloes battling lions.

-- It's the first time in 30 years the rivalry game has been held on Thanksgiving weekend.

-- It's also a rare night meeting between the two programs. It's actually the latest start time for a game in the series since 1945.

-- USC has a 30-game winning streak at home at night.

-- After a 26-year hiatus, this will be the second consecutive year UCLA and USC will wear their home jerseys to face each other, a one-time tradition that was ended in 1982 because of an NCAA rule. The rule has now been rescinded.

-- There are over a dozen players and coaches from both programs who have ties to the rival program. The most prominent, of course, is current UCLA Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow having been Pete's Carroll's OC at USC for 5 years during his most successful stretch, when USC won two national championships and its offensive players won three Heisman Trophies. The story between Chow and Carroll is well-documented, with Chow leaving for the NFL when he and Carroll clashed.

-- The winner of the cross-town rivalry is rewarded with the Victory Bell, a locomotive bell whose support frame is then painted in the colors of the team that possesses it for a year. The bell was originally given to UCLA in 1939, but then USC students stole it in 1941. It was made the award for the game's winner in 1942.

-- The Bruin statue on UCLA's campus is traditionally covered to prevent damage from USC students. However, Tuesday the statue was splashed with red and yellow paint.

-- USC is coming off a bye week. It reportedly is the healthiest it's been in over a month.

-- Since 1955, USC is 52-15-1 following byes. Six of the losses and the tie came at the hands of the Bruins.

-- USC, in its last game two weeks ago, lost to Stanford, 55-21. It was USC's worst home loss since a 51-0 loss to Notre Dame in 1966.

-- It was also Carroll's first loss in November since being at USC.

-- USC's last three losses in the Coliseum have been to Stanford.

-- The weather forecast for Saturday calls for 69 degrees and partly cloudy.

It's definitely a bit of a down year for a USC offense.

USC's offense is fifth or worse in the significant Pac-10 offensive categories this season: scoring offense, rushing offense, passing offense, and total offense.

USC is best in its rushing offense but it's also the most surprising that it's only fifth in the Pac-10, averaging 181.2 yards per game. Oregon, Stanford, Cal and Arizona are all gaining more yards on the ground per game than USC.

We knew USC might not by in sync with its passing game, since it plugged in a true freshman quarterback and then was hit by injuries among its receivers.

But with a veteran, talented offensive line and a deep tailback position, you would have thought the Trojans would be pounding through its opponents on the ground.

It's done well, but it hasn't been dominating.

The USC OL hasn't been as good as billed, without the elite-level talent it's had in some recent years.

It definitely has experience. The entire unit returned from last season. Senior center Jeff Byers (6-3, 290) came to USC in 2006, when its starting quarterback, Matt Barkley (6-2, 230) was 13 years old. Senior tackle Charles Brown (6-6, 285) and senior guard Alex Parsons (6-4, 300) have experience, but don't have the can't-miss-NFL-guy stamp on them like past USC linemen.

Byers moved from guard to center when junior starting center Kristofer O'Dowd (6-5, 300) was injured and then couldn't earn his starting spot back.

Sophomore tackle Tyron Smith (6-6, 285) was hyped to be a star-in-the-making before the season but he's struggled a bit keeping pass rushers in front of him.

If it were any other team, you'd say they did well in creating running room for their running backs, who have averaged 5.3 yards per carry. But this year's USC OL simply doesn't blow defensive lines down the field like it has.

Many USC onlookers blame the offensive issues on a lack of big playmakers. It is relatively true; when you think of USC this year, it definitely lacks the Mike Williamses, Reggie Bushes and Dwayne Jarretts.

You have to kind of sympathize a bit with junior tailback Joe McKnight (6-0, 190), who is an exceptional back with great moves and explosiveness. But he keeps hearing that he just isn't Reggie Bush.

Second-string junior tailback Allen Bradford (5-11, 235) would be starting on probably 100 other FBS teams, and he's had a very good season as USC's power back.

McKnight is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and Bradford 6.4.

And even though you always hear about USC's deep stable of running backs, it's just not reality right now. Stafon Johnson is out for the season after the weight-lifting injury, and it seems that C.J. Gable permanently resides in the doghouse. Marc Tyler has 5 carries for the season.

At wide receiver, junior Damian Williams (6-1, 195) is the go-to guy who looked questionable with an ankle injury, but was cleared to play Wednesday. He's not expected to be 100%, however, practicing in a brace. Junior Ronald Johnson (6-0, 190) is the speedy, deep-ball threat, but he hasn't been able to get completely on track since breaking his collar bone in August. Many USC followers were expecting freshman Brice Butler (6-3, 200) to be an impact guy all season, and while many didn't notice it during the Stanford game, he had a bit of a break-out day, catching 6 passes and one for a touchdown.

Senior tight end Anthony McCoy (6-5, 250) is a threat, but they don't look to him consistently. Early on McCoy was a favorite target of Barkley, but McCoy has been nursing an ankle sprain which has seemingly slowed him. He's supposed to be back to 100% for the UCLA game.

They do like to throw to their running backs, especially trying to get McKnight out in space.

So much has been written and discussed when it comes to Barkley. Carroll heaped praise on him early in the season, which many feel was excessive, and set up far-too-unrealistic expectations for him. It's unrealistic to expect him not to have some hiccups as a true freshman. He's made some very good throws this season, and some others that haven't been that great. But he's very capable of throwing for 300 yards and doing what has to be done for the Trojans to win this game.

UCLA's defense is coming off three very good performances – against some pretty poor offensive teams. And in those games it still looked vulnerable against the run.

Junior defensive tackle Brian Price has been ripping it up against inferior o-linemen in recent weeks, but he'll be pressed to get loose and in the USC offense's backfield against double teams.

UCLA's secondary has been very good all season against the pass, but questionable against the run.

Rahim Moore, who leads the nation in interceptions (11), and star senior cornerback Alterraun Verner, will be looking for errant Barkely passes.

It's funny because most fans would naturally assume that USC would have the edge in this match-up.

But if you take away the USC offensive mystique, there isn't much else to support it.

If you look at just the stats, you have to give it to the Bruins. UCLA leads the Pac-10 in scoring defense (20.6) and turnover margin (+8). If there are two stats you'd want your defense to be superior in, those would be them.

But UCLA is also close to being first in passing defense (192.8 yards per game, to ASU's 192.7).

UCLA, all in all, has been very good defending the pass, and USC, all in all, hasn't been great in its passing offense. That will give UCLA the confidence to leave its secondary in man-to-man coverage and possibly dedicate more personnel to limiting USC's running game.

It's pretty easy to expect USC to have a pretty good day on the ground, especially early on. The UCLA defense has been notorious for giving up big-gainers on the ground, but it doesn't necessarily translate into many points on the scoreboard. UCLA's defense is also notorious for giving up big gains early, and then the defensive coaching brain trust making some adjustments and shutting it down, relatively.

So, expect McKnight to run for about 80 yards in the first quarter, and then probably 60 yards the last three quarters.

A big key for UCLA's defense to be effective is to put USC's offense in third-and-longs. The Trojans are 8th in the league at converting third downs (34.2), which is pretty typical when you have a young quarterback (UCLA is 7th in the conference). So, that will probably mean Defensive Coordinator Chuck Bullough, once he gets the hang of the USC offense, will mix things up a bit on first and second downs, perhaps sending pressure from different spots, and then challenging Barkley to make a play on third down. Perhaps we'll even see Akeem Ayers lining up at defensive end on first and second downs instead of exclusively on third.

It's also key that UCLA minimizes defensive penalties, to keep USC honest and having to earn its first downs.

USC's defense simply isn't what it's been in recent years, and it's understandable. The Trojans lost eight starters from last season, including four first-day NFL draft choices, including their entire linebacking group.

Many USC fans, spoiled with how well USC has recruited in the last decade, expected the Trojan defense to merely plug in some guys and pick up right where they left off last season, but that hasn't been the case.

The linebackers, in fact, have struggled. Sophomore Chris Galippo (6-2, 250) has tried to step in to fill the shoes of departed Rey Maualuga at middle linebacker, but it hasn't been a smooth ride. He's experienced some growing pains, both figuratively and literally, being banged up for a good portion of the season. He's had a hard time moving laterally, which has created holes downfield for opposing running backs.

Junior Michael Morgan (6-4, 220) had started every game at strongside linebacker, but he's nicked up and Carroll opted for converted freshman defensive end Devon Kennard (6-3, 255) to try to get more bulk at the spot for the Stanford game. Reports are that the USC coaches were encouraged by Kennard's performance, even though Stanford ran all over the USC defense.

Junior Malcolm Smith (6-1, 225) was the starter on the weakside earlier in the season, but then USC tried sophomore Shane Horton (6-1, 210). Horton struggled against Stanford so they're going back to Smith for the UCLA game. Smith has a shoulder issue he's playing through.

USC replaced three of its four defensive linemen from last season, too, and it's been a transitional year for the DL. Junior defensive end Everson Griffen (6-3, 280) has eight sacks on the season, second in the Pac-10. He's had turf toe but is expected to be recovered. USC is still looking for the guy at the other DE spot, with the contenders being either freshman West Horton (6-5, 255) or freshman Nick Perry (6-3, 250).

Inside, sophomore Jurrell Casey (6-1, 295) has generally received praised for playing well all season. He looks sloppy physically, but he's deceptively quick. Junior nose tackle Christian Tupou (6-2, 285), the returning starter, has been solid.

USC's secondary has been heaped with praise, and while it's probably a bit excessive, most of it is deserved. The Trojan defense has been strong for most of the season against the pass, led by All-American safety, senior Taylor Mays (6-3, 235). Mays has gotten knocked this season for not making the big hit, but it's difficult to argue with his 8.1 tackles per game (third in the Pac-10).

Senior strong safety Will Harris (6-1, 210) has been a stead rock in the secondary all season. The cornerbacks, seniors Kevin Thomas (6-1, 190) and Josh Pinkard (6-1, 215) have also started every game, and are big, fast, strong and experienced.

UCLA's offense has found some success through the air in recent weeks, but has also found some questions in its running game. Starting tailback Johnathan Franklin has been demoted due to fumbling, and senior fullback Chane Moline has been installed at the position. Moline has done well, gaining good yardage, especially late in games when the defense has worn down, and he, most importantly, has held onto the ball. But Moline isn't a play-breaking threat.

Quarterback Kevin Prince has definitely found his rhythm, after struggling to find it early in the season when he was recovering from the fractured jaw. Prince, though, clearly has times when he's playing tight and not throwing as accurately as he can. It wouldn't be unexpected for Prince to struggle in this game, at least early on, while he works through the nerves.

Junior offensive lineman Jake Dean looks like he'll get the starting nod at right guard this week after playing well last week against Arizona State. The right guard spot has been through three guys so far this season due to injury.

USC's defense has basically been on its heels since the second half of the Notre Dame game October 17th. Even the illustrious secondary hasn't been great, with opposing quarterbacks finding a good amount of holes in USC's coverage. The woes of the rushing defense have been well-documented, with opposing tailbacks being able to slip into the secondary pretty easily because of poor linebacker play.

It's probably going to be a different story on Saturday, though. USC's defense is young overall, without a senior and six new starters among its starting front seven, but the feeling is that the USC coaches, after a season of trying to find the right guys, finally have. Injuries, too, have been a factor, with just about everyone on USC's defense having been nicked up sometime this season. But USC is now the healthiest it's been in a while because of the bye week.

UCLA's offensive line did fairly well protecting Prince last week against ASU, which is a good pass-rushing defense. But in trying to protect Prince against the Sun Devils, UCLA had to dedicate extra guys to pass protection, which many times limited them to just two receivers in the pattern. As a result, UCLA didn't look down field much. You can probably expect the same thing against USC, which is the best pass-rushing defense in the conference with 32 sacks on the season.

Prince has become an unexpected threat running the ball this season, with deceptive speed. He had the 78-yard touchdown run against Washington State, and probably the offensive play of the game when he scrambled for a first down last week against Arizona State. Norm Chow, to get Prince away from USC's pressure, will roll him out, which also gives him a chance to tuck and run. Watch for Prince, as he did against Arizona State when he ran for 42 yards, to gain some solid yardage with his legs.

UCLA's young offense, however, with many of the youngsters playing in their first game in the Coliseum, will probably be nervous and out-of-sync. That's the best remedy for a struggling USC defense.

One of the biggest factors in this game is the news that Damian Williams, one of the best punt returners in the nation, probably won't be returning punts Saturday due to his ankle injury. Williams was averaging 16 yards per return and scored two touchdowns on returns this season. It might not be too much of a drop off to Joe McKnight, however.

USC hasn't done much with its kick-off returns, with C.J. Gable the primary returner, which is good news for UCLA; if UCLA has a weakness in its special teams it's kick-off coverage, consistently allowing opposing teams to bring the ball out to the 35.

USC's punter, Jacob Harfman, is last in the Pac-10 in punting, averaging 39.3 yards per punt. Place kicker Jordan Congdon has been accurate from 40 yards and in, but doesn't have much of a range beyond that.

UCLA's place kicker, Kai Forbath, is one of three finalists for the Lou Groza Award, and the Bruins' punter, Jeff Locke, is ninth in the country, averaging 44 yards per punt.

There are definitely some un-USC-like aspects to this year's USC team. Most of it stems from a general lack of experience across the board for the Trojans, particularly in its front seven on defense.

What is interesting is USC being 8th in the Pac-10 in time of possession, while UCLA is fifth. The Trojans haven't been able to sustain drives well this year, faltering on third downs and not being able to be consistent in its passing game.

That gives UCLA a fighting chance in this game. The Bruins' game plan is pretty clearly going to be: Play a clean game, one that emphasizes ball control and field position. If UCLA can do that, and keep close to USC on the scoreboard, not handing over points through turnovers, it's anyone's game in the fourth quarter. While many fans want to see UCLA open it up and air it out on offense, and be really aggressive on defense in blitzing, neither might be the smart strategy against USC. The USC defense's vulnerability to the run could give UCLA a chance to eat up clock on the ground. Its strength defensively is easily in its pass defense, with a strong, experienced secondary and a great pass rush, so it makes sense that UCLA won't put too much pressure on Prince. On the other side of the ball, USC's offense has struggled to sustain drives, so it might behoove UCLA's defense to play back in a zone, not over-commit with too much pressure, take away USC's big play, and make Barkley have to execute and drive the Trojans down the field.

With, of course, some blitzing sprinkled in to keep Barkley guessing.

With both teams having somewhat struggling offenses, and better defenses, it probably means a low-scoring game, one that could be determined by who turns over the ball the most.

This is easily the most evenly matched game in the UCLA/USC series in many years.

The game will probably be a fairly boring one, with both offenses unable to sustain drives or put the ball in the endzone easily. Expect both teams to get points from their defenses. So, the game should probably not be too exciting -- until the fourth quarter when it very well might be decided on the last possession.

If the game were being played in the Rose Bowl and not the Coliseum, I'd give the nod to the Bruins. But with UCLA having such a young team, with so many kids who haven't even played in the Coliseum before, in a UCLA/USC rivalry atmosphere, that tips it over to USC. But there's definitely enough here to believe UCLA could win this game.


UCLA 23

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