Villanova faces Providence on Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. (TV: FS1, Radio: 610 (WTEL AM) or VUSports Live Chat). The two teams met a week and a half ago with the Wildcats winning 78-68 at Wells Fargo Center.
Kenpom predicts a 70-62 win for Villanova with a 75% chance of ‘Nova winning the game. ‘Nova leads the all-time series with the Friars, 60-38.
After a disappointing 1-4 start to the Big East regular season, Providence has won 3 of 5 to advance to 4-6 in conference and 14-9 overall. Out of conference, PC grabbed quality wins over Memphis (neutral court) and against URI at home but came up a little short at Ohio State and against Virginia on a neutral court. Providence has solid wins in conference over Georgetown (swept Home/Away), Seton Hall and at Marquette. A 5-3 finish in conference could position the Friars to grab an NCAA bid with a good showing in the BET. However, that would require the Friars to win three games over their next six (against a tough schedule of: Villanova, @ SHU, Butler, Xavier, @ Creighton, Marquette). Kenpom projects Providence finishing 3-5 down the stretch of the BE regular season.
Keys for Villanova in this game will be 1) defending aggressively for the full 40 - the Providence offense is average - the longer they stay in it at home the more difficult it gets to close the game out; 2) rebounding - the Cats had a 31-23 rebounding advantage in the first meeting; 3) patience - the Cats need to run their offense and share the ball - in the first meeting, the Cats had 19 assists on 30 made baskets with only 10 turnovers
Taking a look at the Four Factors for each team:
a few things stand out:
• Providence is not a good offensive rebounding team
• Both teams do a good job of not fouling on defense
• The Cats offense has an 5.9% advantage in effective FG% over the Friar offense
• Neither team gets to the free-throw line frequently nor send opponents to the line much
other stats of interest:
• Providence can be a bit turnover-prone
Providence player thumbnails:
Rodney Bullock (6-8, 225, Jr., 33.9 MPG, 17.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG. 1.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 45.4% FG, 74.6% FT, 31.8% 3PFG, 100.4 ORtg) Versatile and long, Bullock is a tough cover. He can be a bit streaky shooting the ball and isn’t especially great from deep, but he can finish around the bucket and knock down the mid-range jumper. He is a good defender and rebounder.
Kyron Cartwright (5-11, 185, Jr., 32.0 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.8 TPG, 42.7% FG, 72.3% FT, 38.9% 3PFG,103.4 ORtg) Cartwright has blossomed into a good distributor of the basketball with the quickness to get to the rim. He has been shooting the three-ball well - you don’t want to leave him space to launch the deep one. He is a pesky defender on-the-ball but doesn’t have the size and length to be very effective when he switches off.
Emmitt Holt (6-7, 230, Jr., 27.5 MPG, 12.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 51.3% FG, 71.3% FT, 33.3% 3PFG, 110.7 ORtg) The Junior has come into his own this season and demonstrated some ability to score at all three levels. He doesn’t always get as much defensive attention in the scouting report as some of the other guys but he has proven to be an effective scoring option. He chips in on the glass and is a versatile defender.
Isaiah Jackson (6-6, 212, Jr., 16.1 MPG, 4.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 44.6% FG, 75.9% FT, 43.8% 3PFG, 102.0 ORtg) He has been a good piece of the rotation for the Friars. Been hot from three-point range of late.
Jalen Lindsay (6-7, 220, Jr., 30.4 MPG, 10.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 49.3% FG, 83.7% FT, 49.0% 3PFG,131.5 ORtg) Lindsay has been coming on strong over the past couple weeks. He shoots it very efficiently, can hit the deep ball, he rebounds well, and he has been strong with the ball. Defenses need to know where he is.
Kalif Young (6-9, 250, Fr., 14.3 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 48.6% FG, 34.2% FT, 88.0 ORtg) This Frosh big man is still getting his Big East “sea legs”. He can finish a bit around the cup and works hard on defense.
Maliek White (6-2, 180, Fr., 10.9 MPG, 2.7 PPG, 0.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 42.1% FG, 57.1% FT, 37.0% 3PFG, 88.4 ORtg) The Frosh guard is shooting the ball well but having trouble valuing the rock. His turnover problems are a key factor in his poor ORtg.
Alpha Diallo (6-7, 205, Fr., 17.9 MPG, 3.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 33.3% FG, 79.5% FT, 18.2% 3PFG, 89.4 ORtg) Athletic and quick. Diallo has been a versatile defensive player who can get opportunity buckets and chip in on the glass. He remains quite raw offensively. Very active getting in the passing lanes. Let him shoot treys.
Ryan Fazekas (6-8, 215, So., 14.2 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 40.3% FG, 66.7% FT, 38.2% 3PFG, 111.4 ORtg) Can stroke the three but is not all that effective off the dribble - he should be guarded accordingly.
Here are Providence player shot charts as well as additional stats and analysis courtesy of ONIN2TO: CLICK HERE
Injury: Phil Booth is expected to miss the game for Villanova.