Villanova faces Georgetown Saturday at noon in D.C. (Noon, TV: Fox, Radio: 610 (WTEL AM) or VUSports Live Chat). The game marks the end of Big East regular season. ‘Nova is 14-3 and in has clinched the Big East regular season championship while the Hoyas sit at 5-12 and are guaranteed the 9th Seed in the Big East Tournament next week at Madison Square Garden.
Kenpom predicts a 73-66 win for Villanova with a 75% chance of the Cats emerging victorious. ‘Nova trails the all-time series with Georgetown, 36-43. Villanova has won the last five match-ups. In the first meeting this season, Villanova came away with a 75-64 win at the Pavilion behind 25 points from Josh Hart and 15 for Donte DiVincenzo. ‘Nova did a good job on the glass, were +4 in turnover margin and +6 at the free-throw line. The Hoyas got 21 points from L.J. Peak and 20 from Rodney Pryor.
Defensively, the Hoyas have been effective in terms of limiting the field goal shooting efficiency of their opponents. However, the Hoyas have not done a good job of creating turnovers, keeping opponents off the offensive glass and avoiding sending teams to the FT line. On offense, Georgetown turns it over frequently. They shoot the ball well from all levels and have been getting to the free-throw line repeatedly.
Keys for Villanova: a) come out hard early and break the will of the Hoyas - they don’t have much to play for so a big deficit early could go a long way b) don’t settle for the deep ball - Georgetown will reward patience and driving the ball to the rim with trips to the FT line, c) rebounding
Taking a look at the Four Factors for each team:
a few things stand out:
• Both teams are well above average in Effective FG percentage both Offensive and Defensive
• The Hoyas don’t create turnovers as well as the Cats and are turnover prone on offense (ranking 260th nationally)
• Georgetown is generally very good at getting to the FT line on offense, however Villanova leads the nation in not sending teams to the stripe
• On the other side of the floor - ‘Nova doesn’t get to the line much but the Hoyas foul well above the national average
other stats of interest:
• Both Georgetown and Villanova shoot the ball well from all three levels
• The Hoyas generally prefer to score from inside the arc while the Cats rely more on the deep ball
• GTown has the height advantage while Villanova leads in experience
• Georgetown gets 36.9% of their minutes from the bench - the Cats only 24.1%
Georgetown player thumbnails:
L.J. Peak (6-5, 215, Jr., 33.8 MPG, 16.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 47.7% FG, 80.9% FT, 34.0% 3PFG, 110.8 ORtg) Peak has taken on more of a play-maker role for the Hoyas this year and is certainly setting up his teammates more than he did in his first two seasons. Despite the increase in play-making, he has seen only a marginal uptick in turnovers (which can be his achilles heel). He is at his best slashing and driving the ball to the cup.
Rodney Pryor (6-5, 205, 32.3 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 48.8% FG, 74.7% FT, 42.2% 3PFG, Sr., 113.3 ORtg) Shoots the ball efficiently and doesn’t turn it over. Pryor carries a large scoring burden for the Hoyas. A very good offensive rebounder who plays active defense as well.
Jessie Govan (6-10, 270, So., 20.8 MPG, 10.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 51.3% FG, 67.1% FT, 38.2% 3PFG, 103.3 ORtg) The Soph big-man has been playing well. He is a good defensive rebounder and shot blocker and is involved in a lot of possessions on offense. Draws a lot of fouls.
Marcus Derrickson (6-7, 250, So., 23.4 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 44.1% FG, 85.7% FT, 35.6% 3PFG, 111.9 ORtg) He can be a real load to defend. He can use his chiseled physique to be a bull in the lane but also has a smooth stroke from three-point range so he must be guarded at all levels. Derrickson at times relies too much on his perimeter game and doesn’t fully leverage his size in the lane. Good shot-blocker.
Jagan Mosley (6-3, 205, Fr., 19.8 MPG, 4.4 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 38.9% FG, 76.2% FT, 25.7% 3PFG, 102.7 ORtg) Mosley, from legendary St. Anthony’s (NJ), has been able to step into a large role as a Frosh. He has done a good job of running the point at times, though he can be a bit turnover prone and has shown the ability to slash to the bucket and score in transition. He is a good defender and FT shooter but is not much of a threat to shoot the three-pointer
Bradley Hayes (7-0, 275, Sr., 13.0 MPG, 4.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 53.7% FG, 36.7% FT, 92.8 ORtg) A methodical, plodding type of big man. Uses his great size to be a very effective positional rebounder and shot-blocker. Turnover prone. Struggling at the FT line.
Akoy Agau (6-8, 235, Jr., 15.4 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 50.6% FG, 84.1% FT, 21.4% 3PFG, 99.5 ORtg) Bouncy and athletic. Good defensive rebounder. Turnover prone. At his best in the paint getting put-backs and finishing at the rim as a cutter. Let him shoot the three.
Jonathan Mulmore (6-4, 185, Jr., 20.1 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 1.9 APG, 34.6% FG, 75.0% FT, 35.7% 3PFG, 95.5 ORtg) A serviceable, Big East guard. Not exceptional at any one thing but can do a little of everything. Asked to distribute more so than score. Can struggle with turnovers.
Tre Campbell (6-2, 170, Jr., 14.6 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 37.7% FG, 61.9% FT, 34.3% 3PFG, 93.9 ORtg) Now a Junior, Campbell remains erratic offensively. He lacks the floor game of a true PG and he lacks the consistent shooting ability to be a reliable scorer on the wing. That said, he has the ability to get hot from deep and put up a good scoring number on a given night. He is playing a smaller % of minutes for the Hoyas this year than he did as a Frosh and Soph.
Kaleb Johnson (6-6, 205, So., 10.8 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 44.0% FG, 51.1% FT, 25.0% 3PFG, 100.3 ORtg) Primarily focused on defense, rebounding and screening as he plays spot minutes at the forward spots. Can get to the rim a bit off the bounce.
Reggie Cameron (6-7, 225, Sr., 7.7 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 42.1% FG, 50.0% FT, 33.3% 3PFG, 100.1 ORtg) Didn’t play in many games early in the season and has seen some spot minutes of late. He came in with a reputation as a deadly deep shooter but his lack of offensive versatility and athleticism has proven too limiting for him to every really step into a significant role in the Hoyas rotation over his four years in the program. 32.6% career three-ball shooter.
Injuries: Phil Booth and Tim Delaney are expected to be out for Villanova. Darryl Reynolds is expected to play at least some limited minutes in the rotation.